Bayes Example:
Region
% of U.S. Population
Percentage of Seniors
Northeast
19.0
13.8
Midwest
23.1
13.0
South
35.5
12.8
West
22.4
11.1
What percentage of seniors live in the northeast (you can pick any region you want)?
Step 1)
To solve this problem, we first need to establish what percent of the total US population
is seniors (total probability formula).
Step 2)
Then, we compute the percentage of seniors living in the northeast.
Step 3)
Divide the answer in step 2 by the answer from step 1. (This is Bayes’ formula.)
(your solution will be .02622/.127 = .206)
CIRCUIT PROBLEM
(note we have not attempted something like this in class, so please
look at this one carefully)
A series circuit only works if all the components of the system are working, i.e. if it has 4
parts, all 4 parts must be working for the series to work.
A parallel circuit will work if at least one component of the system is working, i.e. if at
least 1 of the 4 parts is working it will work.
Suppose that we have a series circuit and a parallel circuit each with 5 components and
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 Spring '08
 MARTIN
 Conditional Probability, Probability, Probability theory, total probability formula, Conditional Probability Problems

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