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AA Pitch - More uses for alum fuel eff standards rising in...

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Peak Alum 1.339 Peak Copper 3.571429 2010 Revs 2010 EBITDA Current Alum 1.111 -17.0% Curr Copper 4.233929 18.6% Alumina 2815 13.5% 752 Trough Alum 0.63 Prim Metals 7070 33.8% 1147 Flat Rolled 6457 30.9% 551 EPS 4584 21.9% 762 Materials Outlook 20926 100.0% 3212 Aluminum - Fundies tight - not as dependant on China - levered to recovery in auto/aerospace/consumer/emerging markets - pricing still 26% below peak Alcoa! 4000 -$600mm run-rate reductions in headcount - estimate 75% permanent! -Sig Working Capital Improvements and lowest SGA since 1999 -Long term - JV with Saudi Arabia will make cost leader! EV -Targeting 1.6b in rev gains by 2013 in eng products (new and more share)…higher margin - reflects focus on downstream Equity -Alumina based pricing system to add 400mm EBITDA Price/Share -At valuation trough in terms of EV/Ebitda of 5x -PT of $22 based on 8x EV/EBITDA and 16x 2011, low given 32% potential growth into 2012 Aluminum ETFS exp to drive pricing higher
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Unformatted text preview: More uses for alum: fuel eff standards rising in cars - use more aluminum A380 plate and fuselage consumer products +/- $100/MT = +/- $200 million 0.0446428571 **AA made $906mm in Net Income in 2001 with Alum at $0.77 Alum Price 1.23 1.22 0.75 0.98 1.01 1.05 Rev Growth-9.27%-33.90% 30.23% 2.03% 1.02% Opexp Growth-4.31%-27.16% 10.93% 0.60%-0.23% EBITDA Growth-31.39%-89.34% 1070.42% 7.68% 5.70% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Rev 30,748 100.0% 27,897 100.0% 18,439 100.0% 24,013 100.0% 24,500 100.0% 24750 100.0% Opexp 24,248 78.9% 23,203 75.5% 16,902 91.7% 18,750 61.0% 18,863 77.0% 18820 76.0% SGA 1,472 4.8% 1,190 3.9% 1,009 5.5% 935 3.0% 990 4.0% 1026 4.1% R&D 173 0.6% 173 0.6% 173 0.9% 173 0.6% 173 0.7% 175 0.7% EBITDA 4,855 15.8% 3,331 10.8% 355 1.9% 4,155 13.5% 4,474 18.3% 4729 19.1% Net Income 2,562 8.3%-74-0.2%-1,151-6.2% 1,062 3.5% 1,250 5.1% 1500 6.1%...
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