W2_Seasonality_Exercise_Solution

W2_Seasonality_Exercise_Solution - Totals 10986.20 36.00...

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Forecast of sales, including seasonal adjustment. y= a + bx a= 276.5101 b= 1.1341 Time = X Year Month 0 276.51 Year 1 Jan 1 274.4 277.64 0.99 274.4 Feb 2 273.3 278.78 0.98 273.3 Mar 3 280.0 279.91 1.00 280.0 Apr 4 291.2 281.05 1.04 291.2 May 5 296.8 282.18 1.05 296.8 Jun 6 291.2 283.31 1.03 291.2 Jul 7 285.6 284.45 1.00 285.6 Aug 8 274.4 285.58 0.96 274.4 Sep 9 268.8 286.72 0.94 268.8 Oct 10 285.6 287.85 0.99 285.6 Nov 11 296.8 288.99 1.03 296.8 Dec 12 302.4 290.12 1.04 302.4 Year 2 Jan 13 280.0 291.25 0.96 280.0 Feb 14 280.0 292.39 0.96 280.0 Mar 15 289.0 293.52 0.98 289.0 Apr 16 299.0 294.66 1.01 299.0 May 17 305.8 295.79 1.03 305.8 Jun 18 311.4 296.92 1.05 311.4 Jul 19 291.2 298.06 0.98 291.2 Aug 20 286.7 299.19 0.96 286.7 Sep 21 285.6 300.33 0.95 285.6 Oct 22 302.4 301.46 1.00 302.4 Nov 23 308.0 302.59 1.02 308.0 Dec 24 317.0 303.73 1.04 317.0 Year 3 Jan 25 304.86 0.97 297.2 Feb 26 306.00 0.97 296.5 Mar 27 307.13 0.99 304.8 Apr 28 308.27 1.03 316.1 May 29 309.40 1.04 322.6 Jun 30 310.53 1.04 322.4 Jul 31 311.67 0.99 308.7 Aug 32 312.80 0.96 300.2 Sep 33 313.94 0.94 296.4 Oct 34 315.07 1.00 314.3 Nov 35 316.20 1.02 323.3 Dec 36 317.34 1.04 331.0
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Unformatted text preview: Totals 10986.20 36.00 10710.02 Actual Sales (A) Jan-07 - Dec-09 = Y Regression Forecast (F) y = a + bx Seasonal Ratio (A)/(F) Seasonal Forecast of Sales The seasonal forecast for the periods WITH actual data will be the SAME as the actual data. Note though that in Year 3 a seasonal forecast of sales can be created without actual sales data, using the regression forecast that is adjusted for seasonality. This company chose to forecast its Year 3 seasonality factor by averaging the seasonality factor used in years 1 & 2. Jan year 3 = (Jan year 1 + Jan year 2) / 2. Feb year 3 = (Feb year 1 + Feb year 2)/2, and so forth....
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This note was uploaded on 02/05/2012 for the course ACCT 305 taught by Professor Charlie during the Spring '11 term at University of Phoenix.

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