28-Ian_Stewart_Deloitte_BL

28-Ian_Stewart_Deloitte_BL - The Economic Outlook Back to...

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Unformatted text preview: The Economic Outlook: Back to Business versus the New Normal Tutor2u Economics Teacher Conference 29 th June 2011 Ian Stewart Chief Economist, Deloitte UK [email protected] © 2011 Deloitte LLP. Private and confidential IMF is forecasting a return to normal global growth Economics & Markets, Deloitte Research, London Forecasts Global GDP growth, actual and forecasts to 2016 But US markets fear a double dip Economics & Markets, Deloitte Research, London 3 US equities/US bonds and the US ISM index of manufacturing activity US equities vs. US bonds (LHS) US ISM purchasing managers’ index (RHS) Advanced economies downgrades, emerging upgrades Economics & Markets, Deloitte Research, London 4 2011 and 2012 consensus growth forecasts: advanced and emerging economies Emerging economies Advanced economies 2011 2011 2012 2012 © 2011 Deloitte LLP. Private and confidential Headwinds • High commodity prices • Government debt • Weak consumer balance sheets • Less credit • Pricey housing Tailwinds • Ultra low interest rates • Depression-focussed policymakers • Weak pound • Buoyant emerging markets • Strong corporate balance sheets 5 Footer © 2011 Deloitte LLP. Private and confidential But not every country will see a return to normal growth rates Economics & Markets, Deloitte Research, London GDP growth in 2011 and 2012 as a % of average growth between 1998 and 2007 IMF data & forecasts, Deloitte calculations 100% => 2011 & 2012 growth in line with past performance...
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28-Ian_Stewart_Deloitte_BL - The Economic Outlook Back to...

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