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67-handout - 1/27/2010 A Question of Confidence Geoff Riley...

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1/27/2010 1 A Question of Confidence Geoff Riley Head of Economics, Eton College January 2010 Confidence indicators There are several regular surveys of sentiment Focus on consumer and business expectations Expectations drive Spending behaviour by consumers Savings decisions Planned output, investment by businesses Pricing power of companies
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1/27/2010 2 Sentiment affects willingness to borrow nfidence nt Index of co Percen Lower policy rates have stabilised sentiment Percent Index
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1/27/2010 3 And we are less worried about our own finances Net balance But overall pessimism has driven savings up Percent
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1/27/2010 4 People are less worried about inflation. ..for now Percent And fears of job losses have moderated Net % balance of people expecting higher unemployment in the next year Unemployment Expectations 60 70 80 60 70 80 10 20 30 40 50 Net balance 10 20 30 40 50 Source: Reuters EcoWin 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 -20 -10 0 -20 -10 0
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67-handout - 1/27/2010 A Question of Confidence Geoff Riley...

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