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98-DecemberNCCI_6Jan09

98-DecemberNCCI_6Jan09 - Nationwide Consumer Confidence...

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Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index in partnership with TNS-RI www.nationwide.co.uk/consumer_confidence December 2009 ***STRICTLY EMBARGOED UNTIL 00.01 AM WEDNESDAY 6 JANUARY 2010*** Nationwide Building Society is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for life assurance, pensions, unit trusts, insurance and regulated mortgages Nationwide Building Society, Nationwide House, Pipers Way, Swindon, SN38 1NW NATIONWIDE MPC FORECAST PROBABILITY OF BASE RATE CHANGE No change 95% 0.25% up 5% DECEMBER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE “Consumer confidence fell by five points in December” CONFIDENCE FALLS BACK IN DECEMBER Consumer confidence recorded a five point decrease in December to 69 – its biggest fall since November 2008. The Expectations Index dropped eight points to 101 in December. The Present Situation Index remained unchanged in December while the Spending Index fell by one point. CONSUMERS REIGN IN EXPECTATIONS The proportion of consumers who think the economic situation will be better in six months’ time now stands at 34%, compared to 41% in November. The proportion of people who think there will be many or some jobs available in six months’ time dropped from 27% to 25% in December, but ended the year 10 percentage points higher than in January. MIXED CONFIDENCE TOWARDS SPENDING Over a third of consumers believe now to be a good time to make a major purchase, while 38% believe it to be a bad time – up four percentage points in December. “Confidence falls in December” NATIONWIDE CONFIDENCE BAROMETER Nov 09 (74) Dec 09 (69) Dec 08 (47) “The five point fall in confidence in December suggests that an element of caution may have begun to creep back into the minds of consumers over the Christmas period. This comes at the end of a positive year for the index, which gained some upwards momentum in 2009 to help claw its way up from the record low seen in January. The main driver behind this revival is likely to have been a renewed hope for the future economic situation and a belief that the worst of the recession is over. However, the looming VAT hike and other tax changes announced in the Pre-Budget Report may have impacted on confidence in December, forcing people to review their expectations for the future. Although it is still early days, these lower expectations may foreshadow a more sluggish consumer outlook in 2010 as stimulus measures are withdrawn.” MARTIN GAHBAUER, NATIONWIDE’S CHIEF ECONOMIST, SAID:
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Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index in partnership with TNS-RI www.nationwide.co.uk/consumer_confidence December 2009 ***STRICTLY EMBARGOED UNTIL 00.01 AM WEDNESDAY 6 JANUARY 2010*** December 2009 November 2009 Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index 69 74 - Present Situation Index 20 20 - Expectations Index 101 109 - Spending Index 106 107 Note: seasonally adjusted Confidence falls back in December Consumer confidence falls The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index recorded a five point decrease in December to 69 – its biggest fall since November 2008. While the Present Situation Index remained
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