125-fomcprojtabl20120125

125-fomcprojtabl20120125 - Embargoed for release at 2:00...

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Embargoed for release at 2:00 p.m., EST, January 25, 2012 Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, January 2012 Advance release of table 1 of the Summary of Economic Projections to be released with the FOMC minutes Percent Variable Central tendency 1 Range 2 2012 2013 2014 Longer run 2012 2013 2014 Longer run Change in real GDP. . . . . . 2.2 to 2.7 2.8 to 3.2 3.3 to 4.0 2.3 to 2.6 2.1 to 3.0 2.4 to 3.8 2.8 to 4.3 2.2 to 3.0 November projection. . 2.5 to 2.9 3.0 to 3.5 3.0 to 3.9 2.4 to 2.7 2.3 to 3.5 2.7 to 4.0 2.7 to 4.5 2.2 to 3.0 Unemployment rate. . . . . . 8.2 to 8.5 7.4 to 8.1 6.7 to 7.6 5.2 to 6.0 7.8 to 8.6 7.0 to 8.2 6.3 to 7.7 5.0 to 6.0 November projection. . 8.5 to 8.7 7.8 to 8.2 6.8 to 7.7 5.2 to 6.0 8.1 to 8.9 7.5 to 8.4 6.5 to 8.0 5.0 to 6.0 PCE inflation. . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 to 1.8 1.4 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 2.0 1.3 to 2.5 1.4 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.1 2.0 November projection. . 1.4 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.8 1.4 to 2.5 1.5 to 2.4 1.5 to 2.0 Core PCE inflation 3 . . . . . . 1.5 to 1.8 1.5 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 1.3 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0 November projection. . 1.5 to 2.0 1.4 to 1.9 1.5 to 2.0 1.3 to 2.1 1.4 to 2.1 1.4 to 2.2 N OTE : Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are from the fourth quarter of the pre- vious year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the aver- age civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant’s projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under ap- propriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The November projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the
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125-fomcprojtabl20120125 - Embargoed for release at 2:00...

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