GDP_C02 - Chapter 2 The Measurement and Structure of the...

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Unformatted text preview: Chapter 2 The Measurement and Structure of the National Economy Numerical Problems 1. GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced during the year. The final output of coconuts is 1000, which is worth 500 fish, because two coconuts are worth one fish. Of the 500 fish caught during the year, the 100 fish used as fertilizer are an intermediate good, so the final output is 400 fish. So in terms of fish, GDP consists of 500 fish worth of coconuts plus 400 fish, with a total value of 900 fish. To find consumption and investment, we must find out what happens to all the coconuts and fish. Gilligan consumes all his 200 coconuts (worth 100 fish) and 100 fish, so his consumption is worth 200 fish. The Professor stores 100 coconuts with a value of 50 fish. In an ideal accounting system, these stored coconuts would be treated as investment. However, in the national income accounts, because it is so difficult to tell when durable goods are consumed and when they are saved, they are counted as consumption. So the Professor’s consumption consists of 800 coconuts (value 400 fish) and 300 fish, for a total value of 700 fish. Thus the economy’s total consumption is valued at 900 fish and investment is zero. In terms of income, Gilligan’s income is clearly worth 200 fish (100 fish plus 200 coconuts worth 100 fish). The Professor’s income is less easily calculated, because he uses 100 fish to fertilize the coconut trees. These 100 fish are therefore not income to him. Thus the Professor’s income is 800 coconuts (1000 coconuts minus the 200 coconuts paid to Gilligan) plus 300 fish (500 fish minus 100 fish paid to Gilligan and minus 100 fish used as fertilizer). In terms of fish, the Professor’s income has a value of 700 fish. This question illustrates some of the nuances of national income accounting. Many difficult choices and measurement issues are involved in constructing the accounts. Here, for example, it is clear that what we call consumption really isn’t just the amount of goods consumers use up during the year, but also includes consumption goods that are purchased but saved for the future. Since there is no way to measure when goods are used after they are purchased, the accounts are unable to distinguish consumption from storage of goods. Another subtlety is the treatment of the fish used as fertilizer. If the fertilizer increases future output rather than current output, then the fertilizer is not used up during the year and represents investment of 100 fish. In this case, GDP would equal 1000 fish, consumption is 900 fish, investment is 100 fish, the Professor’s income is 800 fish, and Gilligan’s income is 200 fish. 2. (a) Furniture made in North Carolina that is bought by consumers counts as consumption, so consumption increases by $6 billion, investment is unchanged, government purchases are unchanged, net exports are unchanged, and GDP increases by $6 billion. 12 Abel/Bernanke/Croushore • Macroeconomics, Sixth Edition (b) Furniture made in Sweden that is bought by consumers counts as consumption and imports, so consumption increases by $6 billion, investment is unchanged, government purchases are unchanged, net exports fall by $6 billion, and GDP is unchanged. (c) Furniture made in North Carolina that is bought by businesses counts as investment, so consumption is unchanged, investment increases by $6 billion, government purchases are unchanged, net exports are unchanged, and GDP increases by $6 billion. (d) Furniture made in Sweden that is bought by businesses counts as investment and imports, so consumption is unchanged, investment increases by $6 billion, government purchases are unchanged, net exports decline by $6 billion, and GDP is unchanged. 3. (a) ABC produces output valued at $2 million and has total expenses of $1.3 million ($1 million for labor, $0.1 million interest, $0.2 million taxes). So its profits are $0.7 million. XYZ produces output valued at $3.8 million ($3 million for the three computers that were sold, plus $0.8 million for the unsold computer in inventory) and has expenses of $3.2 million ($2 million for components, $0.8 million for labor, and $0.4 million for taxes). So its profits are $0.6 million. According to the product approach, the GDP contributions of these companies are $3.8 million, the value of the final product of XYZ. ABC’s production is of an intermediate good, used completely by XYZ, and so is not counted in GDP. According to the expenditure approach, the GDP contribution is also $3.8 million, with $3 million (of sold computers) adding to the capital stock (as investment spending), and $0.8 million (the unsold computer) as inventory investment. The income approach yields the same GDP total contribution. The amounts are: Labor Profit Taxes Interest ABC $1.0 million $0.7 million $0.2 million $0.1 million XYZ $0.8 million $0.6 million $0.4 million $0.0 million TOTAL $1.8 million $1.3 million $0.6 million $0.1 million Total of all incomes = $3.8 million (b) If ABC pays an additional $.5 million for computer chips from abroad, the results change slightly. The correct answer is easiest to see using the expenditure approach. As in part a, there is $3.8 million spent on final goods, but now there are also net exports of –$0.5 million. So the total expenditure on domestically produced goods is only $3.3 million. The product approach gets the same answer because the $0.5 million is a contribution to GDP of the country in which the chips were made, and so must be deducted from the GDP of the United States. The value added in the United States is only $3.3 million. Finally, the income approach gives the same answer as in part a, except that the cost of importing the chips reduces ABC’s profits by $0.5 million, so the sum of the incomes is only $3.3 million. 4. (a) Product approach: $2 = gas station’s value added = $28 product minus $26 value of product produced in the previous year. Expenditure approach: $2 = $28 consumption spending plus inventory investment of –$26. Income approach: $2 paid to the factors of production at the gas station (wages of employees, interest, taxes, profits). (b) Product approach: $60,000 broker’s fee for providing brokerage services. Expenditure approach: $60,000 counts as residential investment made by the homebuyer. The important point here is that the transfer of an existing good, even at a higher value than that at which it was originally sold, does not add to GDP. Income approach: $60,000 income to the broker for wages, profits, etc. Chapter 2 The Measurement and Structure of the National Economy (c) Product approach: $40,000 salary plus $16,000 childcare equals $56,000. Note that there is a sense in which the childcare is an intermediate service and should not be counted, because without it the homemaker would not be able to work. But in practice there is no way to separate such intermediate services from final services, so they are all added to GDP. Expenditure approach: $56,000 ($16,000 consumption spending on child care services plus $40,000 in categories that depend on what job the homemaker has). Income approach: $56,000 ($40,000 compensation of homemaker plus $16,000 income to the factors producing the child care: employees’ wages, interest, taxes, profits). (d) Product approach: $100 million of a capital good. Since it is produced with local labor and materials, and assuming no payments go to Japanese factors of production, this is all added to U.S. GDP. Expenditure approach: $100 million net exports, since the plant is owned by the Japanese. (It is not part of gross domestic investment because the plant is not a capital good owned by U.S. residents.) Income approach: $100 million paid to U.S. factors of production. (e) Product approach: $0 because nothing is produced. Expenditure approach: $0 because this is a transfer, not a government purchase of goods or services. Income approach: $0, because this is not a payment to a factor of production, just a transfer. 13 14 5. Abel/Bernanke/Croushore • Macroeconomics, Sixth Edition (f) Product approach: $5,000 worth of advertising services. Expenditure approach: $5,000 of government purchases. Income approach: $5,000 compensation of employees. (g) Product approach: $120 million composed of $100 million of new cars produced plus $20 million of sales services provided by the consortium ($60 million sales price minus $40 million cost). Expenditure approach: $100 million by Hertz as investment plus $60 million by the public for consumption of the used cars minus $40 million of investment goods sold by Hertz, for a total of $120 million. Income approach: $100 million to the factors of production of GM plus $20 million in payments to the factors of production and profits for the consortium. Given data: I = 40, G = 30, GNP = 200, CA = –20 = NX + NFP, T = 60, TR = 25, INT = 15, NFP = 7 –9 = –2. Since GDP = GNP – NFP, GDP = 200 – (–2) = 202 = Y. Since NX + NFP = CA, NX = CA – NFP = –20 – (–2) = –18. Since Y = C + I + G + NX, C = Y – (I + G + NX ) = 202 – (40 + 30 + (–18)) = 150. Spvt = (Y + NFP – T + TR + INT) – C = (202 + (–2) – 60 + 25 + 15) –150 = 30. Sgovt = (T – TR – INT ) – G = (60 – 25 – 15) – 30 = –10. S = Spvt + Sgovt = 30 + (–10) = 20. (a) Consumption = 150 (b) Net exports = –18 (c) GDP = 202 (d) Net factor payments from abroad = –2 (e) Private saving = 30 (f) Government saving = –10 (g) National saving = 20 6. Base-year quantities at current-year prices at base-year prices 3000 × $3 = $ 9,000 6000 × $2 = $12,000 8000 × $5 = $40,000 $61,000 3000 × $2 = $ 6,000 6000 × $3 = $18,000 8000 × $4 = $32,000 $56,000 Apples Bananas Oranges Total Current-year quantities at current-year prices Apples Bananas Oranges Total 4,000 × $3 = $ 12,000 14,000 × $2 = $ 28,000 32,000 × $5 = $160,000 $200,000 at base-year prices 4,000 × $2 = $ 8,000 14,000 × $3 = $ 42,000 32,000 × $4 = $128,000 $178,000 (a) Nominal GDP is just the dollar value of production in a year at prices in that year. Nominal GDP is $56 thousand in the base year and $200 thousand in the current year. Nominal GDP grew 257% between the base year and the current year: [($200,000/$56,000) – 1] × 100% = 257%. (b) Real GDP is calculated by finding the value of production in each year at base-year prices. Thus, from the table above, real GDP is $56,000 in the base year and $178,000 in the current year. In percentage terms, real GDP increases from the base year to the current year by [($178,000/$56,000) – 1] × 100% = 218%. Chapter 2 The Measurement and Structure of the National Economy 15 (c) The GDP deflator is the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP. In the base year, nominal GDP equals real GDP, so the GDP deflator is 1. In the current year, the GDP deflator is $200,000/$178,000 = 1.124. Thus the GDP deflator changes by [(1.124/1) – 1] × 100% = 12.4% from the base year to the current year. (d) Nominal GDP rose 257%, prices rose 12.4%, and real GDP rose 218%, so most of the increase in nominal GDP is because of the increase in real output, not prices. Notice that the quantity of oranges quadrupled and the quantity of bananas more than doubled. 7. Calculating inflation rates: 1929–30: [(50.0/51.3) – 1] × 100% = –2.5% 1930–31: [(45.6/50.0) – 1] × 100% = –8.8% 1931–32: [(40.9/45.6) – 1] × 100% = –10.3% 1932–33: [(38.8/40.9) – 1] × 100% = –5.1% These all show deflation (prices are declining over time), whereas recently we have had nothing but inflation (prices rising over time). 8. The nominal interest rate is [(545/500) – 1] × 100% = 9%. The inflation rate is [(214/200) – 1] × 100% = 7%. So the real interest rate is 2% (9% nominal rate – 7% inflation rate). Expected inflation was only [(210/200) – 1] × 100% = 5%, so the expected real interest rate was 4% (9% nominal rate – 5% expected inflation rate). 9. (a) The annual rate of inflation from January 1, 2005, to January 1, 2007, is 10%. This can be found by calculating the constant rate of inflation that would raise the deflator from 200 to 242 in two years. This gives the equation (1 + π)(1 + π) = (242/200), which has the solution π = 10%. An easy way to think about this question is this. A constant inflation rate of π raises the deflator from 200 on January 1, 2005, to 200 × (1 + π) on January 1, 2006, and to 200 × (1 + π) × (1 + π) = 242 on January 1, 2007. So we need to solve the expression (1 + π)2 = 242/200. (b) By similar reasoning, the inflation rate over the three-year period is (1 + π)3 = 266.2/200, or π = 10%. (c) We can derive a general expression in the same way: 1 + π = P1/P0 1 + π = P2/P1 ⋅⋅⋅ ⋅⋅⋅ ⋅⋅⋅ 1 + π = Pn/Pn–1 Multiplying all these lines together, we get: (1 + π)n = (P1/P0) × (P2/P1) × ⋅⋅⋅ × (Pn/Pn – 1) = Pn/P0 Analytical Problems 1. The key to this question is that real GDP is not the same thing as well-being. People may be better off even if real GDP is lower; for example, this may occur because the improvement in the health of workers is more valuable to society than the loss of GDP due to the regulation. Ideally, we would like to be able to compare the costs and benefits of such regulations; they should be put in place if the overall costs (the reduced GDP in this case) are valued less than the overall benefits (the workers’ health). 16 Abel/Bernanke/Croushore • Macroeconomics, Sixth Edition 2. National saving does not rise because of the switch to CheapCall because although consumption spending declines by $2 million, so have total expenditures (GDP), which equal total income. Since income and spending both declined by the same amount, national saving is unchanged. 3. (a) The problem in a planned economy is that prices do not measure market value. When the price of an item is too low, then goods are really more expensive than their listed price suggests—we should include in their market value the value of time spent by consumers waiting to make purchases. Because the item’s value exceeds its cost, measured GDP is too low. When the price of an item is too high, goods stocked on the shelves may be valued too highly. This results in an overvaluation of firms’ inventories, so that measured GDP is too high. A possible strategy for dealing with this problem is to have GDP analysts estimate what the market price should be (perhaps by looking at prices of the same goods in market economies) and use this “shadow” price in the GDP calculations. (b) The goods and services that people produce at home are not counted in the GDP figures because they are not sold on the market, making their value difficult to measure. One way to do it might be to look at the standard of living relative to a market economy, and estimate what income it would take in a market economy to support that standard of living. 4. old new Under the old definition, Sgovt = (T – TR – INT ) – G; under the new definition, Sgovt = (T – TR – INT ) – GCE, where GCE = government consumption expenditures, G = GCE + GI, old and GI = government investment. With those definitions: Sgovt = (T – TR – INT ) – G = (T – TR – INT ) – (GCE + GI) = [(T – TR – INT ) – GCE ] – GI new = Sgovt – GI. The uses-of-savings identity is old Spvt = I + ( − Sgovt ) + CA new = I – ( Sgovt − GI ) + CA new = I + GI + ( − Sgovt ) + CA. Using data for 2002, the old uses-of-savings identity is (where sd is the statistical discrepancy): old Spvt + sd = I + ( − Sgovt ) + CA 1595 + (–117) = 1593 + 374 + (–489) 1478 = 1478 so the identity holds. The new uses-of-savings identity is: new Spvt + sd = I + GI + ( − Sgovt ) + CA 1595 + (–117) = 1593 + 352 +22 + (–489) 1478 = 1478 so the identity holds. ...
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This note was uploaded on 02/08/2012 for the course ECON 320 taught by Professor Chan during the Spring '11 term at SUNY Albany.

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