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8. Model selection-2 - -FEHI)5HIHJG4FK)LFM)IFN45G4J...

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!"#$%&’$’($ *+, -./"(&0 !"#1.%23 444 562"78 9:++ ;7"<.2$"%3 #= >&$?"78%#7 !&[email protected]&2& -(A7"8?%B C?DED !4F5G *+, 562"78 9:++ !D -(A7"8?% -FEHI 5HIHJG4FK LFM IFN45G4J MHNMH554FK C&2% 44 F;GI4KH -#/.0 $.0.(’#7 =#2 .O&1"7"78 &$$#("&’#7 P M&7/#1"Q./ .O6.2"1.7%$B @0#(R./ &7/ [email protected]#(R./ J#7T21&%#23 U?36#%?.$"$ %.$’78V &7&03$"$ HO60#2&%#23 &7&03$"$ -#/.0 $.0.(’#7 =#2 62./"(’#7P 47%.2.$% (.7%.2$ #7 @."78 &@0. %# 62./"(% W?"(? (&%.8#23 &7 "7/"<"/S&0 #@$.2<&’#7 W"00 =&00 "7%# @&$./ #7 %?. <&0S.$ #= #7. #2 1#2. .O60&7&%#23 <&2"&@0.$D >. &2. 1#$% "7%.2.$%./ "7 %?. 62#6.2’.$ #= 62./"(’#7$ 1&/. @&$./ #7 #S2 0#8"$’( 1#/.0D ,,X !4F5G *+, 562"78 9:++ !D -(A7"8?%
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CMHE4JG4FK 5S66#$. W. &2. "7%.2.$%./ "7 ?#W W.00 C5Y U18Z10V &% /"&87#$"$ 62./"(%$ W?.%?.2 %?. %S1#2 ?&$ 6.7.%2&%./ %?. 62#$%&’( (&6$S0.D >. (&7 T% & 0#8"$’( 1#/.0 2.0&’78 C5Y %# 6.7.%2&’#7D 5#1. 6.#60. 0"R. %# 0##R &% &7 .O%.7$"#7 #= M 9 %# 0#8"$’( 2.82.$$"#7[ 4 /#7\%D 5"7(. %?. #S%(#1. W. W&7% %# 62./"(% "$ @"7&23B 4 62.=.2 %# .O&1"7. %?. $.7$"’<"%3 &7/ $6.("T("%3 #= & 62./"(’#7 @&$./ #7 6$& 0.<.0D HO&160. =#00#W$D !4F5G *+, 562"78 9:++ !D -(A7"8?% ,,] C5Y YKE CMF5GYGH JYKJHM ^#W W.00 (&7 W. 62./"(% 6.7.%2&’#7 #= %?. 62#$%&’( (&6$S0. @&$./ #7 C5Y 0.<.0 &% /"&87#$"$_ !4F5G *+, 562"78 9:++ !D -(A7"8?% ,,‘ 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Logistic Regression PSA (mg/ml) Penetration of Prostatic Capsule (1 = yes)
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4K 5GYGY !4F5G *+, 562"78 9:++ !D -(A7"8?% ,a: . logistic penetration psa Logistic regression Number of obs = 380 LR chi2(1) = 49.13 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log likelihood = -231.58055 Pseudo R2 = 0.0959 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ penetration | Odds Ratio Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- psa | 1.051456 .0097262 5.42 0.000 1.032565 1.070693 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . predict phat (option pr assumed; Pr(penetration)) . graph box phat, by(penetration) !Fb CIFG !4F5G *+, 562"78 9:++ !D -(A7"8?% ,a+ .2 .4 .6 .8 1 0 1 Pr(penetration) Graphs by penetration
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4K 5GYGY 5.7$"’<"%3 &7/ $6.("T("%3P !4F5G *+, 562"78 9:++ !D -(A7"8?% ,a9 . estat classification Logistic model for penetration -------- True -------- Classified | D ~D | Total -----------+--------------------------+----------- + | 45 17 | 62 - | 108 210 | 318 -----------+--------------------------+----------- Total | 153 227 | 380 Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5 True D defined as penetration != 0 -------------------------------------------------- Sensitivity Pr( +| D) 29.41% Specificity Pr( -|~D) 92.51% Positive predictive value Pr( D| +) 72.58% Negative predictive value Pr(~D| -) 66.04% -------------------------------------------------- False + rate for true ~D Pr( +|~D) 7.49% False - rate for true D Pr( -| D) 70.59% False + rate for classified + Pr(~D| +) 27.42% False - rate for classified - Pr( D| -) 33.96% -------------------------------------------------- Correctly classified 67.11% -------------------------------------------------- 4K 5GYGY J?&78"78 %?. (S%#cP !4F5G *+, 562"78 9:++ !D -(A7"8?% ,a, . estat classification, cutoff(.4) Logistic model for penetration -------- True -------- Classified | D ~D | Total -----------+--------------------------+----------- + | 74 37 | 111 - | 79 190 | 269 -----------+--------------------------+----------- Total | 153 227 | 380 Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .4 True D defined as penetration != 0 -------------------------------------------------- Sensitivity Pr( +| D) 48.37% Specificity Pr( -|~D) 83.70% Positive predictive value Pr( D| +) 66.67% Negative predictive value Pr(~D| -) 70.63% -------------------------------------------------- False + rate for true ~D Pr( +|~D) 16.30% False - rate for true D Pr( -| D) 51.63% False + rate for classified + Pr(~D| +) 33.33% False - rate for classified - Pr( D| -) 29.37% -------------------------------------------------- Correctly classified 69.47% --------------------------------------------------
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4K 5GYGY J?&78"78 %?. (S%#c &8&"7P !4F5G *+, 562"78 9:++ !D -(A7"8?% ,aa . estat classification, cutoff(.3) Logistic model for penetration -------- True -------- Classified | D ~D | Total -----------+--------------------------+----------- + | 131 148 | 279 - | 22 79 | 101 -----------+--------------------------+----------- Total | 153 227 | 380 Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .3 True D defined as penetration != 0 -------------------------------------------------- Sensitivity Pr( +| D) 85.62% Specificity Pr( -|~D) 34.80% Positive predictive value Pr( D| +) 46.95% Negative predictive value Pr(~D| -) 78.22% -------------------------------------------------- False + rate for true ~D Pr( +|~D) 65.20% False - rate for true D Pr( -| D) 14.38% False + rate for classified + Pr(~D| +) 53.05% False - rate for classified - Pr( D| -) 21.78% -------------------------------------------------- Correctly classified 55.26% -------------------------------------------------- 4K 5GYGY 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Sensitivity/Specificity 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Probability cutoff Sensitivity Specificity !4F5G *+, 562"78 9:++ !D -(A7"8?% ,a* . lsens C"(R (S%#c @&$./ #7 @.$% @&0&7(. #= $.7$"’<"%3 &7/ $6.("T("%3D
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4K 5GYGY 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Sensitivity 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
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