2.ThinkingCriticallyMM - Thinking Critically with...

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Psychology 7e in Modules 1 1 Thinking Critically with Psychological Science Chapter 1 PSY 12000-003 Prof. Williams 2 Thinking Critically with Psychological Science • What’s wrong with relying too much on intuition? – We remember those occasions when our intuitions were correct – We forget or dismiss instances when our intuitions were incorrect – Thus, we overestimate the veracity of our intuitions. Post-hoc Explanations • Hindsight bias “I knew it all along” – Why didn’t friends and family know that Jared L. Loughner was going to be violent and hurt people? – It’s a lot easier explaining why something happened after the fact than predicting what will happen before the fact (“Hindsight is 20/20”) 3 Application to You This is why you don’t look at the answers before you commit yourself to an answer on practice tests. The ______ is a computed measure of how much the scores vary around the mean score. A) correlation coefficient B) standard deviation C) median D) range 4 Answer: B 5 Overconfidence from Hindsight Bias Sometimes we think we know more than we actually know. Anagram BARGE GRABE ENTRY ETYRN WATER WREAT How long do you think it would take to unscramble these anagrams? People said it would take about 10 seconds, yet on average they took about 3 minutes (Goranson, 1978). 6 Thinking Critically … •Can we find evidence of ESP – Clairvoyance: ability to gain information about an object, person, location or physical event through means other than the known human senses. •How to answer this? The Case Study The Survey Naturalistic Observation Correlations Experiments
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Psychology 7e in Modules 2 7 Thinking Critically … Case Studies I read an article where a man “saw” his wife being killed in a car accident, and it turns out at that very moment she was indeed killed in a car accident 200 miles away. Problem: Self-selection/remembering supporting instances 8 Survey Random Sampling If each member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion into a sample, it is called a random sample (unbiased). If the survey sample is biased, its results are not valid. The fastest way to know about the marble color ratio is to blindly transfer a few into a smaller jar and count them. 9 Thinking Critically … Surveys Q: Have you ever experienced the ability to know something without relying on your five senses? Q: Have you ever “known” something was going to happen, and it did? Q. Do you believe in ESP? Problems: Self-selection/beliefs aren’t necessarily accurate reflections of internal processes/question wording can alter answers 10 Thinking Critically … Naturalistic Observation I saw a TV show where the guy could tell what others were thinking.
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2.ThinkingCriticallyMM - Thinking Critically with...

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