science_sars - REPORTS 1 J S Peiris et al Lancet 361...

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References and Notes 1. J. S. Peiris et al ., Lancet 361 , 1319 (2003). 2. N. Lee et al ., N. Engl. J. Med. 348 , 1986 (2003). 3. S. M. Poutanen et al ., N. Engl. J. Med. 348 , 1995 (2003). 4. T. G. Ksiazek et al ., N. Engl. J. Med. 348 , 1953 (2003). 5. Michael Smith Genome Sciences Centre (www. bcgsc.ca/bioinfo/SARS). 6. M. A. Marra et al ., Science 300 , 1399 (2003); published online 1 May 2003 (10.1126/science.1085953). 7. R. M. Anderson, R. M. May, Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control (Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, 1991). 8. O. Diekmann, J. A. P. Heesterbeck, Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Build- ing, Analysis and Interpretation ( Wiley, New York, 2002). 9. Hong Kong Police Department, Selection of Daily Reports of SARS Cases (unpublished). 10. C. A. Donnelly et al ., Lancet , published online 7 May 2003 (http://image.thelancet.com/extras/03art4453web.pdf). 11. See supporting data on Science Online. 12. J. S. M. Peiris et al ., Lancet , published online 9 May 2003 (http://image.thelancet.com/extras/03art4432web.pdf). 13. N. M. Ferguson, S. Mallett, H. Jackson, N. Roberts, P. Ward, J. Antimicrob. Chemother. 51 , 977 (2003). 14. Outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) at Amoy Gardens, Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong, Main Findings of the Investigation (Hong Kong De- partment of Health, 2003). 15. World Health Organization, Communicable Disease Surveillance & Response (www.who.int/csr/sars/ guidelines/en). 16. Supported by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (S.R., N.M.F.), the Royal Society (A.C.G., N.M.F.), the Medical Research Council (C.F., L.J.A.-R., N.M.F.), and the Wellcome Trust (R.M.A.). We thank the Health, Welfare and Food Bureau, the Department of Health, and the Hospital Authority for primary data collec- tion, collation, and facilitation. Above all, we pay tribute to all frontline health care workers who have been working around the clock at great personal risk to care for SARS patients and keep health records of importance to epidemiological analysis. Supporting Online Material www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/1086478/DC1 SOM Text References 6 May 2003; accepted 22 May 2003 Published online 23 May 2003; 10.1126/science.1086478 Include this information when citing this paper. Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Marc Lipsitch, 1 Ted Cohen, 1 Ben Cooper, 1 James M. Robins, 1 Stefan Ma, 2 Lyn James, 2 Gowri Gopalakrishna, 2 Suok Kai Chew, 2 Chorh Chuan Tan, 2 Matthew H. Samore, 3 David Fisman, 4,5 Megan Murray 1,6 * Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.
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