ProbPost

ProbPost - Probability for Computer Scientists This...

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Probability for Computer Scientists This material is provided for the educational use of students in CSE2400 at FIT. No further use or reproduction is permitted. .A.Marin 2008, G. .Mar n, 008, All rights reserved. Applied Statistics: Probability 1-1
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What is Probability? What s Probab l ty? ± Probability theory (applied) is the study of random outcomes (events) and methods for determining how likely they are to occur. ± A probability is a number that represents how likely is the occurrence of a particular andom outcome (event) random outcome (event). ² A probability is a number between 0 and 1. implies that there is no measurable chance ² 0 implies that there is no measurable chance the outcome will occur (but it still might!). ² 1 implies that there is no measurable chance that another outcome will occur. Applied Statistics: Probability 1-2
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We use probability all the time. We use probab l ty all the t me. ± The probability that a hurricane will hit Melbourne on Saturday… uy ± The probability that Dr. Marin will win the lottery this year… ± The probability that 3 students will eat lunch at the Clemente Center (careful!) he probability that the S&P 500 index will ± The probability that the S&P 500 index will increase at least 30% this year… ± The probability that you will exhaust your retirement funds before you die… ± The probability that your family will make money n your life insurance policy on your life insurance policy Applied Statistics: Probability 1-3
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Probability Continued Probab l ty Cont nued ± The probability that the USN will detect a ussian submarine less than 200 miles from Russian submarine less than 200 miles from the US east coast this week… he probability that a missile will strike ± The probability that a missile will strike within 10 meters of its target. he probability that a new medication will ± The probability that a new medication will lower your blood pressure… ± The probability that a roll of a single die py f g will result in a 3… ± The probability that a toss of two coins will result in one head and one tail. Applied Statistics: Probability 1-4
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And Statistics? And Stat st cs? ± In studying probability we look at systems, processes, experiments that produce random (not fixed) outcomes; by studying how the system (etc.) works we attempt to obtain quations/models/tables that show how likely are equations/models/tables that show how likely are particular outcomes. ± In statistics we have, say, a database that contains perhaps thousand or millions of outcomes; y studying patterns averages or summaries of by studying patterns, averages, or summaries of the data only (mostly) we attempt to obtain equations/models/tables that show how likely are articular outcomes particular outcomes.
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ProbPost - Probability for Computer Scientists This...

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