Basic Probability1

Basic Probability1 - Basic Probability(Chapter 2...

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1 Basic Probability (Chapter 2, W.J.Decoursey, 2003) Objectives: - Define probability and its relationship to relative frequency of an event. L th b i l f bi i b biliti - Learn the basic rules of combining probabilities. - Understand the concepts of mutually exclusive / not mutually exclusive and independent / not independent events. - Apply these concepts to solve sample problems. Basic Probability Probability: A measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur. e.g. If we are certain that an event will occur, its probability is 1 or 100%. If it certainly will not occur, its probability is zero. What is the probability of rolling a one using an eight sided dice. Basic Probability Relative Frequency: An estimate of the true probability of an event. For a large number of trials, we get a very good estimate of that probability. For an infinite number of trials, they would be identical. e.g. 260 bolts are examined as they are produced. Five of them are found to be defective. On the basis of this information, estimate the probability that a bolt will be defective.
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