hw13 - Stat 511 Homework 13 - Corrected - FYI only, not to...

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Stat 511 Homework 13 - Corrected - FYI only, not to be turned in Spring 2011 Due: 5pm, Tuesday Apr 26 1. The data in elnino.txt are records of sea surface temperature in four regions of the Pacific ocean from 1950 to current. The data labelled NINO1+2 is the average sea surface temper- ature for the extreme eastern equatorial Pacific. The actual temperature (in Nino1+2) is quite noisy because it includes seasonal variation. (Winter is cooler than summer, even in the tropics). The important column is labelled ANOM (just to the right of NINO1+2). This is the temperature anomaly (observed temperature - expected temperature for that month). Positive anomalies are times of El Nino conditions; negative anomalies are times of La Nina conditions. As an aside, El Nino/La Nina conditions have consequences throughout the west- ern hemisphere. For example, La Nina conditions are associated with June droughts in Iowa. Throughout, assume that observations are independent given the full model. This is not true for many full models, but I don’t want to deal with that complication. (a) One crucial question is whether there is any trend in the temperature anomaly. Fit a linear regression, E ANOM = β 0 + β 1 Date , where Date is Year + (Month-1)/12. Report
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hw13 - Stat 511 Homework 13 - Corrected - FYI only, not to...

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