03-IncidencePreval

03-IncidencePreval - Incidence and prevalence 1...

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Unformatted text preview: 1/25/2011 Incidence and prevalence 1 Epidemiologic measures: Incidence & prevalence Principles of Epidemiology for Public Health (EPID600) Victor J. Schoenbach, PhD home page Department of Epidemiology Gillings School of Global Public Health University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill www.unc.edu/epid600/ 5/20/2002 Incidence and prevalence 2 Quotations that demonstrate the value of humility about predicting the future (authenticity not established) Courtesy of Suzanne Cloutier, 11/17/1998 Famous last words 5/20/2002 Incidence and prevalence 3 “ Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.”- Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872 FAMOUS LAST WORDS: quotations that demonstrate the value of humility in predicting the future 5/20/2002 Incidence and prevalence 4 “This `telephone´ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”- Western Union internal memo, 1876 (Source: 2000 National Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year Awards special insert in USA Today , 2/11/2000, p9B) FAMOUS LAST WORDS: quotations that demonstrate the value of humility in predicting the future 5/20/2002 Incidence and prevalence 5 “Everything that can be invented has been invented.”- Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, US Patent Office, 1899 FAMOUS LAST WORDS: quotations that demonstrate the value of humility in predicting the future 9/11/2005 Incidence and prevalence 6 “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?”- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in radio in the 1920s. FAMOUS LAST WORDS: quotations that demonstrate the value of humility in predicting the future 1/25/2011 Incidence and prevalence 7 “My thesis in this lecture is that macroeconomics . . . has succeeded: Its central problem of depression-prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes, and has in fact been solved for many decades.”- Robert E. Lucas, Jr., American Economics Association Presidential Address, January 10, 2003 http://home.uchicago.edu/~sogrodow/homepage/paddress03.pdf FAMOUS LAST WORDS: quotations that demonstrate the value of humility in predicting the future 1/25/2011 Incidence and prevalence 8 The population perspective requires measuring disease in populations • Science is built on classification and measurement. • Reality is infinitely detailed, infinitely complex. • Classification and measurement seek to capture the essential attributes. 1/25/2011 Incidence and prevalence 9 Deriving meaning from stimuli Vase or faces? Which line is longer? 1/25/2011 Incidence and prevalence 10 Measurement “captures” the phenomenon Classification and measurement are based on: 1. Objective of the classification 2. Conceptual model (understanding of the phenomenon) 3. Availability of data (technology) 5/20/2002 Incidence and prevalence 11 O O O O O O O...
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This note was uploaded on 02/13/2012 for the course EPID 600 taught by Professor Staff during the Spring '08 term at UNC.

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03-IncidencePreval - Incidence and prevalence 1...

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