Unformatted text preview: UCSD Physics 12 Course Wrap-up
Loose Ends What did we learn? What can you do? UCSD Physics 12 How can we respond to Global Warming? The first thing we should do is try to cut back on CO2 emissions after all, this is what we put out of whack won't "fix" the problem, but will limit the damage much resistance to the idea of cutting back Kyoto Protocol is one example of a guideline: reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2012 virtually all countries except U.S. signed on still difficult to meet goal (if possible) but important to try Can also ask Will Farrell what he thinks...
Spring 2010 2 UCSD Physics 12 An Interesting Twist Even if we don't adopt policies to reduce CO2 emissions, we may end up doing a better job than any policy could set out If the world at large faces a decline in the rate of oil production, then reducing our rate of emissions is mandatory! both oil and natural gas are poised to peak Global Warming would still progress, but less quickly than it would have under a Business as Usual plan
Q 3 UCSD Physics 12 Our Energy (thus Economic) Outlook This course has looked at: how we use energy the finite nature of our fossil fuels the prospects for alternative forms of energy Main conclusion: fossil fuels are hard to replace! our alternatives are limited in scope and capability no single replacement is sufficient probably solar, nuclear, wind, hydroelectric will all play roles transportation is the hardest to accommodate Spring 2010 4 UCSD Physics 12 The U.S. Lower 48 Oil Production History Despite advanced technology and a desire to be independent of foreign oil, the production of oil in the U.S. peaked and moved to a state of decline. Spring 2010 5 UCSD Physics 12 Economic Growth and Energy Use Energy use is directly correlated with economic prosperity Spring 2010 6 UCSD Physics 12 U.S. Economic Growth and Energy Usage Energy usage (created from Fig. 1.1 of book) Spring 2010 7 UCSD Physics 12 Chicken-and-Egg Problem Is energy use just keeping pace with economic growth? Or is economic growth possible only if energy is available? related issue: indefinite growth means unbounded exponential behavior--incompatible with a world containing finite land, water, resources The world changed with the industrial revolution, and this was only possible because energy (coal) was cheap and abundant
Spring 2010 8 UCSD Physics 12 What happens after world oil peaks? Worldwide oil production will inevitably peak the speed with which we can extract oil from the ground is limited, and will diminish the U.S. experience (plus 33 of 48 major oil-producing countries that are in decline) is a good example What happens then? gas prices go way up (even more!) transportation becomes expensive all sectors of our economy impacted all consumer goods, agriculture, etc. depend heavily on liquid petroleum Spring 2010 2 Q 9 UCSD Physics 12 "Top Ten" things to take away from this class
11. Fossil Fuels are finite, and will be spent this century panic 10. Fossil fuels inevitably produce prodigious CO2 global warming 9. Nuclear fission is a finite resource (this century) unless breeder programs 8. Nuclear fusion is the dream resource, but maybe fantasy resource 7. Hydroelectric production is near capacity, has long-term limitations 6. Hydrogen fuel is not a source of energy: have to put in more energy than you get out Spring 2010 10 UCSD Physics 12 Top eleven, continued
5. Wind is clean and renewable; biggest drawback is intermittent nature 4. Solar is abundant, clean, long-term (though intermittent and currently expensive) my top pick for the future 3. The United States tends to behave irresponsibly toward global well-being (unwilling to give up anything) 2. Never believe information implicitly: check the source, understand the agenda, do quantitative checks 1. It is you who can make a difference in the world be a thinker, strive for the greater good Spring 2010 11 UCSD Physics 12 What can you do? Understand that we don't know what the future holds I may be over-reacting to the potential threat Read news items; raise your awareness about energy issues keep (and sharpen) your quantitative analysis skills be skeptical Keep tabs on world oil, U.S. gas www.eia.doe.gov http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html get the raw data and interpret yourself (you can trust yourself not to lie/distort the facts) Talk to your friends and family about these issues but don't spread information you don't trust yourself when you don't know an answer, try to find it Spring 2010 12 UCSD Physics 12 More to do Make flexible life plans have a plan B, or pick a direction that will be valuable in any eventuality don't assume our lifestyle today is a fact of nature there are no guarantees, no money-back you can be useful just by having a detached perspective Choose a life with less stuff Learn how to get by with alternate energy/transportation ride buses, bikes, walk, etc. try out solar or other alternatives get a solar battery and/or cell phone charger cut back on usage (so you learn how with a safety net) avoid a commuting lifestyle, if possible Spring 2010 13 UCSD Physics 12 And you can... Read Chapter 7 of the textbook insulate houses well use heat pumps rather than direct heat in houses buy Energy Star appliances (and seek low energy use) use compact fluorescent or LED lighting Spring 2010 14 UCSD Physics 12 Recommended Book The Union of Concerned Scientists put out a good book: The Consumer's Guide to Effective Environmental Choices, by Brower and Leon Looks at consumer impacts on global warming, air pollution, water pollution, habitat alteration Spring 2010 15 UCSD Physics 12 UCS Book Most Harmful Activities Cars and light trucks Meat and poultry Fruit, vegetables, and grains Home heating, hot water, and air conditioning Household appliances and lighting Home construction Household water and sewage Spring 2010 16 UCSD Physics 12 UCS Book High-Impact Activities Powerboats Pesticides and fertilizers Gasoline-powered yard equipment Fireplaces and wood stoves Recreational off-road driving Hazardous cleaners and paints Products made from endangered or threatened species Spring 2010 17 UCSD Physics 12 UCS Priority Actions Transportation choose a place to live that reduces the need to drive think twice before purchasing another car choose a fuel-efficient, low-polluting car set concrete goals for reducing your travel whenever practical, walk, bicycle, or take public transportation Food eat less meat buy certified organic produce Spring 2010 18 UCSD Physics 12 UCS Priority Actions, continued Household Operations choose your home carefully reduce the environmental costs of heating and hot water install efficient lighting and appliances choose an electricity supplier offering renewable energy Spring 2010 3 Q 19 UCSD Physics 12 Special Topic #1: BP Gulf Spill Numerics: big debate over flow rate initial days: 1000 bbl/day, then to 5000 bbl/day for many weeks scientists produced much larger estimates video showed 12-inch (0.3 meter) pipe spewing about half a meter per second about 0.025 cubic meters per second, or about 9 gallons per second, or 20,000 bbl/day settled now on 2030,000 bbl/day scientist claiming 70,000 bbl/day for both oil and gas ridiculed for way-off estimate did not acknowledge that both were being counted did not acknowledge stated uncertainty of estimate did not acknowledge that 30k is off from 5k by factor of 6, but off from ~50k by less than factor of 2 Spring 2010 20 UCSD Physics 12 How Much Is This? 20 kbbl/day is 0.1% of U.S. consumption of 20 Mbbl/day Value of oil is about $2M per day (cleanup more expensive) Each mile of 2000-mile U.S. Gulf coastline would receive 10 barrels per day (if delivered to these shores) Major fraction may be out of sight in deep ocean plumes, having been dispersed don't listen to BP CEO who says this is rediculous because specific gravity (density) of oil is half that of water, so must float to surface this logic would preclude clouds, whose water drops are 1000 times the density of the air (esp. at altitude) drag on small particles makes terminal velocity much smaller than air currents, so easily lofted Spring 2010 21 UCSD Physics 12 When Will It End? Efforts underway may contain soon Relief drill hole in August Canada requires pre-drilled relief for this eventuality How long would it take to subside on its own? U.S. gets less than half its 20 Mbbl/day domestically probably from something like 1000 wells (guess) so about 10,000 bbl/day per well is typical well lifetime maybe 10 years so at 2030,000 bbl/day, might go 35 years! Spring 2010 Q 22 UCSD Physics 12 Special Topic #2: Recycling Is recycling a net benefit? mixed bag: metals, and especially aluminum: definitely paper: 50% energy savings (and fewer trees) plastics: maybe a net wash best practice: reduce amount of packaging you use Aluminum can recycling saves 95% of the energy needed to make a new can from ore in 2001, the energy lost from NOT recycling aluminum cans was equivalent to 16 Mbbl oil recycling one ton of Al saves enough energy to drive a 35 m.p.g. car 80,000 miles source: http://recycling.stanford.edu/recycling/caq_metal.html Spring 2010 23 UCSD Physics 12 Plastics Recycling Most recycled plastic ends up in one-time products, not back to drinking containers False sense of comfort leads to more plastic packaging, so net plastic to landfill is NOT reduced Best strategies: use your own refillable container (could be plastic!) buy goods with less packaging: consumers have voting power! at least put plastic into recycling rather than trash: it is more likely to do some good source: http://www.ecologycenter.org/ptf/misconceptions.html Spring 2010 Q 24 UCSD Physics 12 Announcements Do your CAPEs (look for e-mail with access code) HW 9 posted, due Friday 6/04 Don't forget final quiz on WebCT Final Exam Study Guide posted on course website Final Exam Review Sessions: Sunday 6:00 to 7:50 PM Center 217A Wednesday 6:00 to 7:50 PM; HSS 1315 Final Exam in Peterson 103, Thu. June 10, 11:30 AM to 2:30 PM bring No. 2 pencil, calculator, and red half-sheet scantron (the one with space for Student ID number) Spring 2010 25 ...
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