4-1laws_f09

# 4-1laws_f09 - Birthday Problem What is the smallest number...

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Birthday Problem What is the smallest number of people you need in a group so that the probability of 2 or more people having the same birthday is greater than 1/2 ? Answer: 23 No. of people 23 30 40 60 Probability .507 .706 .891 .994

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Probability Formal study of uncertainty The engine that drives Statistics Primary objective of lecture unit 4 : 1. use the rules of probability to calculate appropriate measures of uncertainty. 2. Learn the probability basics so that we can do Statistical Inference
Introduction Nothing in life is certain We gauge the chances of successful outcomes in business, medicine, weather, and other everyday situations such as the lottery or the birthday problem Tomorrow's Weather

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A phenomenon is random if individual outcomes are uncertain, but there is nonetheless a regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of repetitions. Randomness and probability Randomness ≠ chaos
Coin toss The result of any single coin toss is random. But the result over many tosses is predictable, as long as the trials are independent (i.e., the outcome of a new coin flip is not influenced by the result of the previous flip). The result of any single coin toss is random. But the result over many tosses is predictable, as long as the trials are independent (i.e., the outcome of a new coin flip is not influenced by the result of the previous flip).

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## This note was uploaded on 02/13/2012 for the course BUS 350 taught by Professor Reiland during the Fall '08 term at N.C. State.

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4-1laws_f09 - Birthday Problem What is the smallest number...

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