This preview shows page 1. Sign up to view the full content.
Unformatted text preview: economic activity, rather at forecast of recessions 3. How, according to Estrella and Mishkin, do the four variables considered in their study perform in forecasting recessions? In the short term other 3 (New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stock price index, the Commerce Departments index of lead- ing economic indicators, and the Stock-Watson index) are better at predicting recession, while in long term (4 quarters ahead) yield curve is not flat, while other 3 indicators are. 4. What are the two reasons given by Estrella and Mishkin to explain why the Yield curve might have provided a weaker signal of the 1990-91 recession? 1. restrictive monetary policy 2. variation in yield curve was small...
View Full Document
This note was uploaded on 02/13/2012 for the course ECON 423 taught by Professor Vd during the Spring '08 term at UNC.
- Spring '08