Class03-31

# Class03-31 - Project 3 Objective Estimate uncertainty in...

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1 Project 3 Objective: – Estimate uncertainty in the helicopter design using surrogate models – Build/test the best design for reliability and robustness Uncertainty quantification – Identify all uncertainties in predicting the falling time of helicopter – Separate treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties – Uncertainties in construction, surrogate models, measurement, environment, etc Uncertainty analysis for falling time T fall – Perform a reliability analysis using MCS or FORM to estimate the probability of failure – PF is defined as T second_best = (6.56, 6.15, and 7.05 sec) Design competition – Find a design that minimize the probability of failure, P F . – Build/test the design fall second be _ st () F P P T T

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2 Project 3 Robust design – Sometimes we want to sacrifice a little bit of PF in order to improve robustness of the product – Robustness is measured using variance (or standard deviation) – Find a design that minimizes the standard deviation – Build/test the design
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Class03-31 - Project 3 Objective Estimate uncertainty in...

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