chapter4a

chapter4a - 4-1Operations Operations

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Unformatted text preview: 4-1Operations Operations ManagementManagementForecastingForecastingChapter 4Chapter 44-2ExamplesExamples♦Predict the next number in the pattern:a) 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, ?b) 2.5, 4.5, 6.5, 8.5, 10.5, ?c) 5.0, 7.5, 6.0, 4.5, 7.0, 9.5, 8.0, 6.5, ?4-3ExamplesExamples♦Predict the next number in the pattern:a) 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, y = 3.7b) 2.5, 4.5, 6.5, 8.5, 10.5, y = 0.5 + 2xc) 5.0, 7.5, 6.0, 4.5, 7.0, 9.5, 8.0, 6.5, y = 4.5 + 0.5x + cic1= 0; c2= 2; c3= 0; c4= -2; etc4-4OutlineOutline♦What is Forecasting?♦Time horizons.♦Life cycle.♦Types of Forecasts.♦Eight Steps in the Forecasting System.♦Forecasting Approaches:♦Overview of Qualitative Methods.♦Overview of Quantitative Methods.4-5Outline - ContinuedOutline - Continued♦Time-Series Forecasting:♦Moving Averages.♦Exponential Smoothing.♦Trend Projection.♦Associative Forecasting Methods: Regression and Correlation Analysis.♦Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts.♦Forecasting in the Service Sector.4-6What is Forecasting?What is Forecasting?♦Art and scienceof predicting future events.♦Underlying basis of all business decisions.♦Production & Inventory.♦Personnel & Facilities.♦Focus on forecasting demand.Sales will be \$200 Million!4-7♦Short-range forecast: Usually < 3 months.♦Job scheduling, worker assignments.♦Medium-range forecast: 3 months to 3 years.♦Sales & production planning, budgeting.♦Long-range forecast: > 3 years.♦New product planning, facility location.Types of Forecasts by Time HorizonTypes of Forecasts by Time Horizon4-8Short- vs. Long-term ForecastingShort- vs. Long-term Forecasting♦Medium & Long rangeforecasts:♦Long range for designof system. ♦Deal with comprehensive issues. ♦Support management decisions regarding planning. ♦Short-termforecasts:♦To plan detailed useof system. ♦Usually use quantitative techniques.♦More accurate than longer-term forecasts.4-9Influence of Product Life CycleInfluence of Product Life Cycle♦Stages of introduction and growth require longer forecasts than maturity and decline.♦Forecasts useful in projecting:♦staffing levels,♦inventory levels, and ♦factory capacity (expansion and contraction),as product passes through life cycle stages. 4-10Forecasting During the Life CycleForecasting During the Life CycleHard to forecast.Need long-range forecasts.Often use qualitative models.IntroductionGrowthMaturityDeclineSalesForecasting critical, both for future magnitude and growth rate.Long-range forecasts still important.Easier to forecast.Use quantitative models.Hard to forecast, but forecasting is less important.Time4-11Eight Steps in ForecastingEight Steps in Forecasting♦Determine the use of the forecast....
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This note was uploaded on 02/15/2012 for the course BA 252 taught by Professor Jamescampbell during the Winter '03 term at UMSL.

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chapter4a - 4-1Operations Operations

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