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Week 7 Response 1 - substantiated Clearly an increase in...

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1 Cao Anthony Cao ASIAN 366 02/09/12 Week 7 Response 1 Peng’s article analyzes the report on the 2010 census figures in China. Peng cites, in multiple instances, the fact that China’s population dynamic is rapidly aging, and that large changes in population in the future could have hugely negative impacts. Various reports by Goldman Sachs, Zeng Yi, UNPD, and others offer various predictions of an increasing population in China. All but Goldman Sachs predicts a peak population at around 2023, given the current policies. Peng argues that these policies for child-bearing should be relaxed, at least to some degree, to better control the rate at which China’s population is aging. All of the associated problems with decreasing arable land are associated with a growing population, but could potentially be less important than the rapidly changing age of China’s population. Reading Peng’s argument brought several things to mind. Many of the claims seemed backed by the (flawed) population data, but I still feel a need to question how these claims are
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Unformatted text preview: substantiated. Clearly an increase in population bears weight on the already semi-scarce natural resources, and destruction of more arable land through industrialization and urbanization. However, the connections with detriments to a smaller population still seem hazy at best. I would like to see a more thorough explanation of these factors. These issues beg several questions: What is the balance between limiting population to keep natural resources more available, versus delimiting population policies to mitigate the changing age dynamic in China’s policies? And moreover, why is maintaining a low fertility rate such a huge concern? Why would a rapid decline in population be “disastrous”? What are the implications of an aging nation, where the working population still remains huge? What do the regional differences in fertility rates indicate about associated socio-economic factors?...
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