Lecture 9 October 18

Lecture 9 October 18 - Ten ways to help us all make the...

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Unformatted text preview: Ten ways to help us all make the most of these 80 minutes 1. Arrive in class on time and remain attentive and engaged until you are dismissed. 2. Sit as close to the front as you can. 3. Use the restroom before , not during class. 4. Do not talk to your neighbors. 5. In particular, pursue your love life elsewhere. 6. Do not read newspapers in class. Not even the Targum. 7. Sleep elsewhere. 8. Silence and stow your cell phone. 9. Do not read or send text messages during class. 10. Do not use a laptop during class. Today in Comparative Politics Regression without Excruciating Pain Culture and the Evolution of Democracy Do we need a civic culture for democracy to take hold and thrive? Is there a best religion for encouraging democratic development? Are some religions incompatible with democracy? Empirical Evidence Some Terminology Dependent Variablewhat we want to explain The probability that a country becomes a democracy given that it was a dictatorship in the previous year. Independent Variablesthe things we think explain or determine the value of the dependent variable. Oil producer, economic growth, and wealth. Dependent variable Independent variable Incumb% = 45.5 + 3.1 Income%Change Dependent variable Independent variable Intercept Slope Whats the best fitting line? Regression line is the one that minimizes the sum of the squared errors. Method of least squares More than one independent variable? Regression coefficient on a particular independent variable = effect on the dependent variable of an increase of one unit in that independent variable, with all other independent variables remaining unchanged . Regression methods also give us information about the precision of estimates How confident should we be about estimates of coefficients? Margin of error of a poll Depends on: 1. Variation of opinion in the population 2. Number of people included in the poll A poll can give a very precise reading on how the population feels if most people have the same opinion. A poll will be less reliable (i.e., less precise) if only a small number of persons are polled. Margin of error in a regression First, use statistical formulas and the same data used in computing the regression line itself to compute the standard error for each coefficient. t-statistic = absolute value of regression coefficient / standard error for that regression coefficient The larger a regression coefficient is relative to its standard error, the more precise that coefficient is If the coefficient for a given independent variable has a high t-statistic, then the effect of that independent variable is measured relatively precisely we can be confident that there really is a relation between that...
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Lecture 9 October 18 - Ten ways to help us all make the...

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