intro[1] - CPS 170 Introduc0on Ron Parr Contact...

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Unformatted text preview: CPS 170 Introduc0on Ron Parr Contact Informa0on •  Professor –  Ron Parr –  D209 LSRC, [email protected], 660 ­6537 –  Office hours: Tuesday 1 ­2, Wednesday 2 ­3 •  TA –  Mar0n Azizyan –  217 Hudson Hall, [email protected], 660 ­6576 –  Office hours: Monday 2 ­3, Wednesday 3 ­4 1 About Me •  My tenth year at Duke •  Bachelor’s degree in philosophy (Princeton) –  Philosophy of mind •  Ph.D. in computer science (Berkeley) –  Hierarchical planning under uncertainty •  Current interests: –  –  –  –  –  –  Planning under uncertainty Probabilis0c reasoning Game theory Reinforcement learning Robo0cs Sensing & Vision Requirements •  Good programming skills: –  C/C++, Java, Matlab or other high level language •  Other expecta0ons –  Ability to do short proofs –  Basic probability concepts (though we will review all of this) –  Basic algorithmic concepts •  Complexity  ­ O() •  Analysis of algorithms –  Math •  Basic calculus (par0al deriva0ves) 2 Major Topics Covered •  Search –  Uninformed search, informed search, CSPs •  Game Playing –  minimax, alpha ­beta search, introduc0on to game theory •  Logic and Knowledge Representa0on –  Proposi0onal ogic, First order logic, theorem proving •  Reasoning under uncertainty –  Probability, Bayes nets, HMMs & tracking •  Planning –  Classical planning, Decision theory, stochas0c planning(MDPs) •  Introduc0on to robo0cs •  Introduc0on to machine learning Major Topics Not Covered •  Natural Language •  Vision 3 Class Mechanics •  Textbook: Ar&ficial Intelligence, A Modern Approach, Russell & Norvig (third edi0on) •  Homeworks: 40% –  Discussion OK, write ­up must be your own comments on next slide) (see •  Midterm: 30% –  Closed book, in class, no collabora0on •  Final: 30% –  Closed book, finals week, no collabora0on •  Homeworks will be a mix of short proofs, algorithm design/analysis, and small scale programming projects Academic Honesty •  Brainstorming with friend is encouraged! •  (But don’t confuse brainstorming with lelng your smart friends tell you the answers) •  You must write up solu0ons on your own •  Always ask before using code that is not your own •  Always give credit to original authors if you incorporate code that is not your own into your solu0ons 4 Cool AI Applica0ons •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  Games (deep blue, solving checkers, video games) Handwri0ng recogni0on (PDAs, tablet PCs, post office) Speech recogni0on (my car, voice jail, Dragon) MS Windows diagnos0cs E ­commerce (collabora0ve filtering) Mobile robo0cs (grand/urban challenges) Space explora0on Logis0cs planning Lots of Google tools Computer security So, what is this AI stuff? •  Make machines think like humans –  Is this enough? –  Is this too much? •  Make machines act like humans –  Is this sufficient? –  Is this desirable? 5 Turing Test •  Computer must be indis0nguishable from a human based upon wriqen exchanges –  Does this imply intelligence? –  How could the computer cheat? –  Does intelligence imply a certain type of computa0on? –  Could an intelligent machine s0ll fail the test? •  Does our no0on of intelligence transcend our concept of humanity? What Intelligence Isn’t •  It’s not about fooling people •  Fooling people is (in some cases) easy, e.g., eliza: hqp:// •  More recent efforts: hqp:// 6 The Moving Target •  What is human intelligence? –  At one 0me, calcula0ng ability was prized •  Now it is deprecated •  Calculators permiqed earlier and earlier in school –  Chess was once viewed as an intelligent task •  Now, massively parallel computers use not very intelligent search procedures to beat grand masters •  Some say Deep Blue wasn’t AI –  Learning once thought uniquely human •  Now it’s a well ­developed theory •  Best backgammon player is a learning program •  No litmus test for intelligence or is biological chauvinism? Ar0ficial Flight •  Even seemingly unambiguous terms such as “flight” were subject to biological chauvinism. •  Problem: Flight was largely irreducible (no easier subproblems) •  Demonstrable, unambiguous success ended chauvinism – could the same be true for AI? 7 Intelligence: A web of abili0es •  Intelligence is hard to define in isola0on •  Mixture of special purpose and general purpose hardware –  Special purpose •  Recognizing visual paqerns •  Learning and reproducing language –  General Purpose •  Theorem proving •  Learning and excelling at new tasks •  Seamless integra0on •  Solve pieces of the puzzle isn’t enough, but it is measurable Why is it hard: Ideal Intelligence •  Intelligence means making op0mal choices •  Is anything truly intelligent? •  How do we define op0mality? •  It took decades for people to realize that this was a thorny issue. Let’s see how this played out: 8 Early Efforts: General (top down) •  Good news: –  Many problems can be formalized as instances of •  Search •  Logical deduc0on –  The space of all proofs is a (somewhat) searchable space –  Knowledge base + theorem proving provide a sa0sfying picture or reasoning, knowledge and learning •  Tell PC: –  All men are mortal –  Socrates is a man •  Ask: –  Is Socrates mortal? Bad news for general methods •  Searching in proof space is hard •  Represen0ng knowledge is hard –  What is a chair? •  Knowledge interconnected in strange ways –  –  –  –  Chairs People Gravity Customs… •  Early efforts were too general, ambi0ous –  In most cases, could not solve the knowledge representa0on problem –  Even if KR problem was solved, theorem proving problem was intractable 9 Early Efforts: Special Purpose (boqom up) Methods •  Neural networks –  Aqempted to reproduce func0on of human neurons –  Highly abstracted from actual “wetware” •  Proverbial wing ­flapping flying machine? •  Success at reproducing low ­level tasks –  Paqern recogni0on, associa0ve memory •  Nearly became a religion •  Huge gap between low level and high level •  Early efforts were too specific Overpromising and the AI Winter •  Years of –  Naïve op0mis0sm –  Unrealis0c assessments of challenges –  Poor scien0fic/academic discipline •  Lead to (early 90’s) –  –  –  –  Backlash Reduced government funding Reduced investment from industry The “AI Winter” 10 AI Moving Forward •  More science/engineering •  Less philosophy •  Study broad classes of problems that would tradi0onally require human intelligence (but not intelligence itself) •  Restrict problem somewhat: –  Develop a crisp input specifica0on –  Develop a well ­defined success criterion •  Develop results with –  Provable proper0es –  Broad applicability •  Extract and study underlying principles behind successful methods Eye on the prize •  AI’s narrower focus has earned the field credibility and prac0cal successes, yet •  Some senior researchers complain that we have taken our eye off the prize: –  Too much focus on specific problems –  Lack of interest in general intelligence •  Are we ready to tackle general intelligence? 11 Conclusion •  We want to solve hard problems that would tradi0onally require human ­level intelligence. (Most we consider are at least NP ­hard.) •  We want to be good computer scien0sts, so we force ourselves to use well ­defined input/output specifica0ons. •  We aim high, but we let ourselves simplify things if it allows us to produce a general ­purpose tool with well ­understood proper0es. 12 ...
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