Section 3 - TFs

Section 3 - TFs - Stat 107 Spring 2012 Section #3 Topics...

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Stat 107 – Spring 2012 Section #3 Topics for Section - Expectations and Variances (of discrete RV’s) - Linear Combination of Random Variables - Continuous Distributions - Monte Carlo Sampling of Yearly Returns - R Practice Problems: 1) Sampling from Specified Distribution Let’s do a simulation similar to what Prof Parzen did in lecture on Tueday. Let’s imagine we built a portfolio comprised of 50% Coca-Cola (KO) and 50% McDonalds (MCD) (two of the largest companies in the market). Let’s start by downloading their stock prices for the last ~25 years (we will be assuming the last 25 years is a good reflection of future returns on the companies). In fact, the start date will be Jan 28, 1986 (what happened on that date?) > library(quantmod) >library(logspline) > getSymbols("KO", from = "1986-01-28", to = "2012-02- 01") > getSymbols("MCD", from = "1986-01-28", to = "2012-02- 01") > rets=0.5*yearlyReturn(KO)+0.5*yearlyReturn(MCD) > hist(rets, col="thistle") a) What is this a histogram of? Does the histogram look normally distributed? Let’s look at 3 different ways to sample from this historical data: 1) From the empirical distribution (the actual observations) 2) From a Normal Distribution with the same mean and variance 3) From a continuous Distribution that is somehow best fit over the actual histogram > x1=sample(rets,1000,replace=T) > x2=rnorm(1000,mean=mean(rets),sd=sqrt(var(rets)))
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Section 3 - TFs - Stat 107 Spring 2012 Section #3 Topics...

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