37671 - Jianshi (Jesse) Huang, Weiyi Xiong, Angus Nicoll...

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Unformatted text preview: Jianshi (Jesse) Huang, Weiyi Xiong, Angus Nicoll Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China; European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Health Protection Agency, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK Foresight China II: the Identification and detection of infectious diseases 02/22/12 2 I will discuss What is the Foresight method? Why does China need the Foresight Project ? What is Foresight China II Methodology Preliminary results Conclusion/Implications 02/22/12 3 What is the Foresight method? A scientific approach to the Future Combining future look at diseases & threats with opportunities for mitigation & control 02/22/12 4 Eight Foresight project areas to 2006 Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases Intelligent Infrastructure Systems Obesity Cognitive Systems Flooding and Coastal Defence Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention 02/22/12 5 What is the Foresight method? 10 areas of science of relevance to detection, identification and monitoring systems were reviewed and analyzed: Intelligent sensor networks Data mining and fusion Non-invasive scanning and screening Predictive and real-time epidemiological modelling 02/22/12 6 Todays world is a small village. What happens in China could have significant impact on Europe and vice versa. It is better to have a capacity to anticipate significant changes in infectious diseases for emergency preparation. However, It is very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. (American Sage) Without some moderately accurate predictions or at least early warning, we cannot have a safe global village. Why does China need Foresight Project ? 02/22/12 7 Quantitative Predictions The existing methods used to predict future trends in infectious diseases: (quantitative predictions) Predictions Modelling Drawbacks: Predictions - short term, max. 5 years Modelling by definition all models are wrong but some are useful Why does China need Foresight Project ? 02/22/12 8 The existing quantitative approach is problematic: when we look well beyond five years. When we look groups of infections, especially emergence of unknown pathogens. When more than one drivers influence the occurrence of infectious diseases There is much that we just cant use the quantitative model to predict, or Why does China need Foresight Project ? 02/22/12 9 Chinese Sage? 02/22/12...
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This note was uploaded on 02/22/2012 for the course HIST 312 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '10 term at Rutgers.

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37671 - Jianshi (Jesse) Huang, Weiyi Xiong, Angus Nicoll...

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