lecture6

lecture6 - Lecture 6: Fat cat Natural experiments Were now...

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Unformatted text preview: Lecture 6: Fat cat Natural experiments Were now going to spend a little time on one more example -- This is not a clinical trial but has been termed a natural experiment that leads to an interesting set of questions we are now prepared to answer The example comes from a paper that appeared on one of the journals of record for statistics -- The author and volume information is given below, and Ill hold off on the full record until weve worked through the problem (the title reveals a bit too much) The authors, Ho and Imai have graciously provided us with the data so you can have a hand at the analysis as well! Daniel E. Ho and Kosuke Imai, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 101, No. 475. The 2003 recall election In 2003, California held its first gubernatorial recall election, and ultimately the incumbent Democratic Governor Gray Davis was replaced by Republican candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger To refresh your memories, the California recall system was established in the early 1900s and was introduced to enact the will of the people who might collectively decide that an elected official was not doing their job -- Prior to Davis, many governors had faced the threat of a recall, but in each case had managed to avoid the vote * OK, the ad paired with this particular story is amusing... 2003 recall election The recall ballot consisted of two parts-- In the first you were asked if you thought Gray Davis should be recalled and in the second you were asked to choose a successor (assuming a majority of voters responded yes to the first question) The list of choices that year, however, was quite long, and in all, 135 candidates qualified to run as a Davis replacement -- Here is a list of their names and how they appeared on sample ballots from assembly districts in Sonoma and Orange Counties ADAM ADAMS ALEXSTJAMES ANDERSON ANGELYNE ARIF BADIOZAMANI BAJWA BEARD BEYER BHOLA BLYCHESTER BOCK BRITTON BROWN BURTON BUSTAMANTE CAMEJO CARSON CHAMBERS CHELI CLEMENTS COLEMAN COOK CULLENBINE DAVIS DOLE EDWARDS FARRELL FEINSTEIN FLYNT FONTANES FORTE FOSS FRIEDMAN GALLAGHER GORMAN GOSSE GREEN GRISHAM GRUENER GUZZARDI HALL HAMIDI HANLON HENDERSON HERNANDEZ HICKEY HOFFMANN HUFFINGTON ISSA JACKSON KELLY KENNEDY KESSINGER KIMBALL KNAPP KOREVAAR KUNZMAN LANE LEONARD LEWIS LOUIE MACALUSO MAILANDER MANNHEIM MARGOLIN MARIANO MARTORANA MCCARTHY MCCLAIN MCCLINTOCK MCMAHON MCNEILLY MEDNICK MEHR MILLER MOBLEY MOCK MORTENSEN MUSILLI NAVE NEWMANII PADILLA PALMIERI PAWLIK PETERS PINEDA PRADY PRICE QUINN RAINFORTH RAMIREZ RANKEN RENZ RICHARDS RICHTER RIGHTMYER ROBINSON ROSCOE RUSHFORD RUSSELL SAFFORD SAMS SCHEIDLE SCHMIER SCHWARTZMAN SCHWARZENEGGER SIMMONS SIMON SMITH SPRAGUE SPROUL STRAUSS SYLVESTER TAYLOR TEMPLIN TILLEY TRACY TSANGARES UEBERROTH VALDEZ VANDEVENTER VANN VAUGHN VO WALKERC WALKERM WALTON WATTS WEBER WEIR WINTERS WOZNIAK ZELLHOEFER 2003 recall election There were so many names that most voting districts had to...
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This note was uploaded on 02/20/2012 for the course STAT 105 taught by Professor Hansen during the Winter '12 term at UCLA.

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lecture6 - Lecture 6: Fat cat Natural experiments Were now...

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