Topic_3_Reform - Economics 162 Topic 3 Transition from Plan...

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Economics 162 The Economy of China Topic 3 – Transition from Plan to Market Professor David Roland-Holst Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics Tuesday and Thursday, 330-5pm, 10 Evans Hall
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Roland-Holst 2 Economics 162 China s Unique path to Market Reform • Uninterrupted growth since 1979 • Unprecedented since mid-1800s Ex ante it was not clear if China could muddle through § Doubts in the late 1970s and early 1980s § More doubts in 1989 and early 1990s § Still more doubts after the Asian crisis in 1998 § Doubts remain today
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Roland-Holst 3 Economics 162 An Unusual Path of Transition from Plan to Market Economists have not anticipated this Ask an economist in 1988 which country would come first economically, China or the Soviet Union? Political scientists have predicted otherwise China was, and still is, a Communist country Political liberalization should come before economic liberalization
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Roland-Holst 4 Economics 162 China s Winning Reform Strategy (GDP in constant USD) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 USD Trillion, in constant 2005 prices China Russia
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Roland-Holst 5 Economics 162 Susan Shirk, The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China , 1993 We usually think of communist political institutions as rigid and hostile to innovation. We expect communist party and government
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This note was uploaded on 02/21/2012 for the course ECON 162 taught by Professor Hanemann during the Spring '07 term at University of California, Berkeley.

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Topic_3_Reform - Economics 162 Topic 3 Transition from Plan...

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