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Afghanistan Neg - 4 Week - ENDI 2010

Afghanistan Neg - 4 Week - ENDI 2010 - Afghan Neg ENDI 2010...

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Afghan Neg 4 Week HLMS ENDI 2010 Page 1 of 76 Afghanistan Negative  Afghanistan Negative  ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 **Don’t forget to add impact defense from Mikaela’s file to your 1NC .................................................................................. 8 ***Inherency*** .................................................................................................................................................................. 10 AT: Withdrawal inevitable ................................................................................................................................................... 11 No withdrawal from Afghanistan ........................................................................................................................................... 11 Petraeus will prevent withdrawal and manage public expectations .................................................................................... 11 AT: July 2011 Withdrawal date ........................................................................................................................................... 12 The withdrawal deadline was a political announcement – not US policy ............................................................................ 12 July 2011 is the beginning of a long withdrawal process—Obama and Petraeus claim .................................................... 12 Gates admits the withdrawal will be slow—difficult ground conditions ................................................................................ 12 ***Hegemony*** ................................................................................................................................................................. 14 1NC Hegemony .................................................................................................................................................................... 15 1. No risk of heg decline ........................................................................................................................................................ 15 1NC Hegemony .................................................................................................................................................................... 16 2. Heg can’t provide stability – power is inherently limited and its unsustainable – only a multipolarity can solve ........... 16 1NC Hegemony .................................................................................................................................................................... 17 3. US power has limited influence – it doesn’t create stability or manipulate the world .................................................... 17 4. Stopping the Taliban is vital to preventing it spreading throughout Central Asia – withdrawing US presence telegraphs weakness to Russia and Central Asian states ................................................................................................... 17 SOUTHERN REGIONS of Muslim central Asia are now at risk. The situation will only get worse if the Taliban  offensives continue ....................................................................................................................................................... 17 The regions bordering Afghanistan, including southern Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and eastern  Turkmenistan, are facing pauperization of their populations, the collapse of Soviet-era services like health and  education, and growing joblessness. Their regimes remain dictatorial, corrupt, and deny political or economic  reforms. Vast numbers of poverty-stricken workers migrate to Russia looking for work ............................................ 17 Uzbekistan is the largest of these states with some 27 million people and a history of Islamic revolt. Harsh policies  and vicious crackdowns against anyone overzealously practicing Islam have led to a strong Islamist underground.  After the massacre in Andijan in May 2005, when security forces killed up to eight hundred protesting citizens,  hundreds of young dissidents have fled to join the two major Islamic groups operating from Pakistan’s tribal areas —the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU). Both these groups fight for and  model themselves on the Taliban, work closely with al-Qaeda and help fund the extremist terrorist network by  transporting drugs through central Asia to Europe. Both the IMU and the IJU recruit widely from central Asia, the  Caucasus, Russia, and most recently from Turkey and Turks living in Germany ........................................................ 17 This summer, for the first time since 2001, allegedly under the auspices of al-Qaeda, the IMU and the IJU carried  out suicide bombings and other small attacks against security forces in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Such attacks 
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