allied prolif disad - J(E)DI 2010 1 Baker/Topp/Wilkins...

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Unformatted text preview: J(E)DI 2010 1 Baker/Topp/Wilkins Allied Proliferation Disad Allied Prolif Disad ***Generic 1NC*** The withdrawal of US Forces causes quick allied and rogue proliferation Rosen 3 Stephen Peter Rosen, Professor of National Security at Harvard, Spring 2003, An Empire if you can Keep it, National Interest, pg. proquest Rather than wrestle with such difficult and unpleasant problems, the United States could give up the imperial mission , or pretensions to it, now. This would essentially mean the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from the Middle East, Europe and mainland Asia. It may be that all other peoples, without significant exception, will then turn to their own affairs and leave the United States alone. But those who are hostile to us might remain hostile, and be much less afraid of the United States after such a withdrawl. Current friends would feel less secure and , in the most probable post-imperial world , would revert to the logic of selfhelp in which all states do what they must to protect themselves. This would imply the relatively rapid acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Iran, Iraq and perhaps Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia and others. Constraints on the acquisition of biological weapons would be even weaker than they are today. Major regional arms races would also be very likely throughout Asia and the Middle East. This would not be a pleasant world for Americans, or anyone else. It is difficult to guess what the costs of such a world would be to the United States. They would probably not put the end of the United States in prospect, but they would not be small. If the logic of American empire is unappealing, it is not at all clear that the alternatives are that much more attractive . Proliferation leads to miscalc and escalatory nuclear wars Evans and Kawaguchi 9 Gareth Evans, Professorial fellow in the School of Social and Political Sciences @ University of Melbourne, and Yoriko Kawaguchi, Co-chair of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, 12/15/2009, Eliminating Nuclear Threats: A Practical Agenda for Global Policymakers, http://www.icnnd.org/ reference/reports/ent/ downloads.html 3.1 Ensuring that no new states join the ranks of those already nuclear-armed must continue to be one of the worlds top international security priorities. Every new nuclear-armed state will add significantly to the inherent risks of accident or miscalculation as well as deliberate use involved in any possession of these weapons , and potentially encourage more states to acquire nuclear weapons to avoid being left behind. Any scramble for nuclear capabilities is bound to generate severe instability in bilateral, regional and international relations . The carefully worked checks and balances of interstate relations will come under severe stress. There will be enhanced fears of nuclear blackmail, and of irresponsible and unpredictable leadership behaviour. 3.2 In conditions of inadequate command and control systems, absence of confidence building unpredictable leadership behaviour....
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allied prolif disad - J(E)DI 2010 1 Baker/Topp/Wilkins...

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