Samford Debate Institute
South Korea AFF
This incident is different than past crises with North Korea—there is a credible threat of
miscalculation to war from North Korea:
, May 28, 20
(staff writer, New York Times), “In the Koreas, Five Possible Ways to War.”
Accessed June 11, 2010 at
USUALLY, there is a familiar cycle to Korea crises
Like a street gang showing off its power to run amok in a
well-heeled neighborhood, the North Koreans launch a missile over Japan or set off a nuclear test or stage an
attack — as strong evidence indicates they did in March, when a South Korean warship was torpedoed.
Expressions of outrage follow. So do vows that this time, the North Koreans will pay a steep price.
though, the United States and North Korea’s neighbors — China, Japan, South Korea and Russia — remind one
another that they have nothing to gain from a prolonged confrontation, much less a war
. Gradually, sanctions get
watered down. Negotiations reconvene. Soon the North hints it can be enticed or bribed into giving up a slice of
its nuclear program. Eventually, the cycle repeats.
The White House betting is that the latest crisis, stemming
from the March attack, will also abate without much escalation.
But there is more than a tinge of doubt
. The big
risk, as always, is what happens if the
North Koreans make a major miscalculation
. (It wouldn’t be their first.
Sixty years ago, Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Il-sung, thought the West wouldn’t fight