Iran Containment DA
Team Jabob and the STGs
A. Uniqueness- Iran will proliferate within the year, creating the most probable
scenario for Middle Eastern war, widespread proliferation, terrorist attacks and Israel
Robb and Wald 10
, Charles S. Robb, former Democratic senator from Virginia, Charles Wald, retired general and air commander in the initial stages of
Operation Enduring Freedom, The Washington Post, A show of force for Iran, 7/9/2010,
Even if they could put enough pressure on Iran to force a policy change, sanctions require time to take effect. Yet
as Iran's stockpile of enriched
the time for stopping its nuclear program rapidly dwindles. As we wrote in our just-released
Bipartisan Policy Center report on Iran
scenarios become increasingly likely in the coming months
current trends suggest that Iran could achieve
nuclear weapons capability before the end of this year, posing a strategically untenable threat to the United States.
Contrary to a growing number of voices in Washington, we do not believe
a nuclear weapons-capable Iran
could be contained. Instead, it
set off a proliferation cascade across the Middle East, and Iran would gain the ability to transfer nuclear materials to
its terrorist allies.
Meanwhile, even as it continued to threaten Israel's existence, Tehran would be able to dominate the energy-rich Persian Gulf, intensify
its attempts to destabilize moderate Arab regimes, subvert U.S. efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, violently oppose the Middle East peace process, and increase
support for terrorism across the region.
An Iran emboldened by nuclear weapons clearly might overstep its boundaries, pulling
the Middle East and the United States into a treacherous conflict. An even more likely scenario
is that Israel
would first attack Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering retaliatory strikes by Iran and its terrorist proxies.
This would put the
United States in an extremely difficult position. If we remained neutral in such a conflict, it would only invigorate Tehran, antagonize our regional allies and lead to
greater conflict. On the other extreme,
the United States could be dragged into a major confrontation at a time not of its
B. Link- US Military presence is key to containing a nuclear Iran.
, Michael Rubin, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research with major research area is the Middle East, with special focus on Iran,
Iraq, Turkey, and Kurdish society. He also writes frequently on transformative diplomacy and governance issues. At AEI, Mr. Rubin chaired the "Dissent and
Reform in the Arab World" conference series. He was the lead drafter of the Bipartisan Policy Center's 2008 report on Iran. Lecturer, Johns Hopkins University,