SCFI - Iran DA - SCFI 2010 Team Jabob and the STGs Iran...

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SCFI 2010 Iran Containment DA Team Jabob and the STGs Iran Containment DA 1
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SCFI 2010 Iran Containment DA Team Jabob and the STGs 1NC Shell A. Uniqueness- Iran will proliferate within the year, creating the most probable scenario for Middle Eastern war, widespread proliferation, terrorist attacks and Israel first strikes. Robb and Wald 10 , Charles S. Robb, former Democratic senator from Virginia, Charles Wald, retired general and air commander in the initial stages of Operation Enduring Freedom, The Washington Post, A show of force for Iran, 7/9/2010, http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do? Even if they could put enough pressure on Iran to force a policy change, sanctions require time to take effect. Yet as Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium grows, the time for stopping its nuclear program rapidly dwindles. As we wrote in our just-released Bipartisan Policy Center report on Iran , two scenarios become increasingly likely in the coming months : First, current trends suggest that Iran could achieve nuclear weapons capability before the end of this year, posing a strategically untenable threat to the United States. Contrary to a growing number of voices in Washington, we do not believe a nuclear weapons-capable Iran could be contained. Instead, it would set off a proliferation cascade across the Middle East, and Iran would gain the ability to transfer nuclear materials to its terrorist allies. Meanwhile, even as it continued to threaten Israel's existence, Tehran would be able to dominate the energy-rich Persian Gulf, intensify its attempts to destabilize moderate Arab regimes, subvert U.S. efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, violently oppose the Middle East peace process, and increase support for terrorism across the region. An Iran emboldened by nuclear weapons clearly might overstep its boundaries, pulling the Middle East and the United States into a treacherous conflict. An even more likely scenario , however, is that Israel would first attack Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering retaliatory strikes by Iran and its terrorist proxies. This would put the United States in an extremely difficult position. If we remained neutral in such a conflict, it would only invigorate Tehran, antagonize our regional allies and lead to greater conflict. On the other extreme, the United States could be dragged into a major confrontation at a time not of its choosing. B. Link- US Military presence is key to containing a nuclear Iran. Rubin 08 , Michael Rubin, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research with major research area is the Middle East, with special focus on Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Kurdish society. He also writes frequently on transformative diplomacy and governance issues. At AEI, Mr. Rubin chaired the "Dissent and Reform in the Arab World" conference series. He was the lead drafter of the Bipartisan Policy Center's 2008 report on Iran. Lecturer, Johns Hopkins University,
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SCFI - Iran DA - SCFI 2010 Team Jabob and the STGs Iran...

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