RRSe Terrorism Takeouts

RRSe Terrorism Takeouts - SDI Terrorism Takeouts Core...

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SDI Core Terrorism Takeouts Terrorism Takeouts ***Generic Terrorism*** Terrorism 1NC No Impact to terrorism --- Empirical evidence Mueller ’05 (John, “Is There Still a Terrorist Threat?” FOREIGN AFFAIRS v. 85 n. 5, September/October) But while keeping such potential dangers in mind, it is worth remembering that the total number of people kille d since 9/11 by al Qaeda or al Qaeda_like operatives outside of Afghanistan and Iraq is not much higher than the number who drown in bathtubs in the United States in a single year, and that the lifetime chance of an American being killed by international terrorism is about one in 80,000 -- about the same chance of being killed by a comet or a meteor. Even if there were a 9/11-scale attack every three months for the next five years, the likelihood that an individual American would number among the dead would be two hundredths of a percent (or one in 5,000). Although it remains heretical to say so, the evidence so far suggests that fears of the omnipotent terrorist -- reminiscent of those inspired by images of the 20-foot-tall Japanese after Pearl Harbor or the 20-foot-tall Communists at various points in the Cold War (particularly after Sputnik) -- may have been overblown, the threat presented within the United States by al Qaeda greatly exaggerated . The massive and expensive homeland security apparatus erected since 9/11 may be persecuting some, spying on many, inconveniencing most, and taxing all to defend the United States against an enemy that scarcely exists. No incentive to inflict mass death and it’s easy getting caught Sprinzak ‘98 (Ehud, “The Great Superterrorism Scare”, Foreign Policy, September 28, http://radiobergen.org/terrorism/super-1.html) There is, however, a problem with this two-part logic. Although the capabilities proposition is largely valid--albeit for the limited number of terrorists who can overcome production and handling risks and develop an efficient means of dispersal--the chaos proposition is utterly false. Despite the lurid rhetoric, a massive terrorist attack with nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons is hardly inevitable. It is not even likely . Thirty years of field research have taught observers of terrorism a most important lesson: Terrorists wish to convince us that they are capable of striking from anywhere at anytime, but there really is no chaos. In fact, terrorism involves predictable behavior, and the vast majority of terrorist organizations can be identified well in advance. Most terrorists possess political objectives , whether Basque independence, Kashmiri separatism, or Palestinian Marxism. Neither crazy nor stupid , they strive to gain sympathy from a large audience and wish to live after carrying out any terrorist act to benefit from it politically. As terrorism expert Brian Jenkins has remarked, terrorists want lots of people watching, not lots of people dead. Furthermore, no terrorist becomes a terrorist overnight. A lengthy trajectory of radicalization and low-level violence precedes the killing of civilians.
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This note was uploaded on 02/23/2012 for the course DEBATE 101 taught by Professor None during the Spring '12 term at Berkeley.

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RRSe Terrorism Takeouts - SDI Terrorism Takeouts Core...

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