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MGW10-LCP-A2-Prolif-ADV

MGW10-LCP-A2-Prolif-ADV - MGD LCP 2010 Proliferation Neg...

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MGD LCP 2010 Proliferation Neg Frontline LF/TS Proliferation Frontline Proliferation Frontline ...................................................................................................................... 1 Prolif Frontline (1/2) .......................................................................................................................... 2 Prolif Frontline (2/2) .......................................................................................................................... 3 Extensions (1/2) ................................................................................................................................... 4 Extensions (2/2) ................................................................................................................................... 5 NK Will Attack ................................................................................................................................... 6 NK Will Prolif ..................................................................................................................................... 7 SK Impacts (1/3) ................................................................................................................................. 8 SK Impacts (2/3) ................................................................................................................................. 9 SK Impacts (3/3) ............................................................................................................................... 10 Soft Power Fails (1/3) ....................................................................................................................... 11 Soft Power Fails (2/3) ....................................................................................................................... 12 Soft Power Fails (3/3) ....................................................................................................................... 13 Hard Line Good (1/2) ...................................................................................................................... 14 Hard Line Good (2/2) ...................................................................................................................... 15 1
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MGD LCP 2010 Proliferation Neg Frontline LF/TS Prolif Frontline (1/2) 1) TURN - Perception of strong security assurances to Japan and SK are key to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. Bakanic et al. Woodrow Wilson School of Public International Affairs, 08 (Elizabeth Bakanic, Mark Christopher, Sandya Das, Laurie Freeman, George Hodgson, Mike Hunzeker, R. Scott Kemp,Sung Hwan Lee, Florentina Mulaj, Ryan Phillips, January. “Preventing nuclear proliferation chain reactions: Japan, South Korea, Egypt” . http://wws.princeton.edu/research/pwreports_f07/wws591f.pdf ) <Manage tensions with Japan and South Korea to ensure that U.S. alliances with and assurances to them remain robust. Perceptions that U.S. alliances with Japan and South Korea are strong contribute to the credibility of U.S. security assurances, including extended deterrence. Conversely, a lack of confidence in these alliances raises the risk that Japan and South Korea might pursue nuclear weapons . To allay Japanese concerns about neglect, the United States should look for both substantive and symbolic opportunities to demonstrate that Japan remains a key U.S. partner. It should also commit to resolving the abductee issue in the context of the Six Party Talks. To allay South Korean fears of U.S. disengagement, the United States should be prepared to revisit discussion of the timetable for transferring wartime operational control of South Korean forces, should the new South Korean administration so request.> 2) TURN - Countries will proliferate if the US pulls out. Bolton, former ambassador to the U.N., 2010 (John R., senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of "Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations and Abroad", The Washington Times, Folding Our Nuclear Umbrella, April 28, 2010, www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/apr/28/folding-our-nuclear-umbrella/ , accessed June 27, 2010, TS) <Thus, while there unquestionably are variations among America's allies about the precise implications of Mr. Obama's global withdrawal from U.S. strategic nuclear dominance, the overall direction is not in doubt. U.S. decline leaves the allies feeling increasingly on their own, uncertain about Washington's commitment and steadfastness and facing difficult decisions about how to guarantee their own security. Ironically, therefore, it is America's friends that might increase nuclear proliferation, not just their mortal foes. This is the reality created by the retreat of nuclear America, the exact opposite of the Obama administration's benign optimism, namely that reducing U.S. capability would encourage others to do the same .>
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