MGW10-MS-Nato-Cohesion-DA - MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor...

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Unformatted text preview: MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY/CREDIBLITY DA NATO COHESION/UNITY DA Nato cohesion/unity/crediblity DA .........................................................................................................................1 NATO COHESION DA 1NC--NUCLEAR POLICY CHANGES (1/2)..............................................................3 NATO COHESION DA 1NC--NUCLEAR POLICY CHANGES (2/2)..............................................................4 NATO COHESION DA 1NC--afghanistan troops withdrawal (1/2)....................................................................5 NATO COHESION DA 1NC--afghanistan troops withdrawal (2/2)....................................................................6 ****Uniqueness strategic concept****..................................................................................................................7 Uniqueness Strategic concept = crossroads.............................................................................................................8 UNIQUENESS Strategic Concept= Crossroads ...................................................................................................11 UNIQUENESS Strategic Concept = Key Crossroads...........................................................................................12 UNIQUENESS Strategic Concept= Crossroads....................................................................................................13 Uniqueness- NATO crossroads..............................................................................................................................14 ***cohesion high now****...................................................................................................................................15 U- NATO cohesive now........................................................................................................................................16 U- NATO credibility increasing now--performance..............................................................................................17 U-COHESION NOW--STRATEGIC CONCEPT...............................................................................................18 U- NATO alive......................................................................................................................................................19 NATO Alliance cohesion Strong Now................................................................................................................20 NATO DA Uniqueness: AT "AFGHANISTAN CRUSHES COHESION".........................................................21 ****now key time*****........................................................................................................................................22 U- now key time- nato cohesion............................................................................................................................23 U- NATO credibility- now key time......................................................................................................................24 UNIQUENESS Strategic Concept= Crossroads....................................................................................................25 ****links*****......................................................................................................................................................26 NATO DA LINK- DECREASE US nuclear weapons..........................................................................................27 nato DA Unique link- TNW .................................................................................................................................28 NATO DA LINK--TNWS SIGNAL OF COMMITMENT ................................................................................29 NATO DA Link: US TNW Withdrawal From Turkey .........................................................................................30 NATO DA Link- US Decreases Nuclear Weapons...............................................................................................31 NATO DA Link- Nuclear Policy...........................................................................................................................32 NATO link nuclear weapon policy key..............................................................................................................33 at presence of tnws hurt nato security ...................................................................................................................34 NATO Link- Afghanistan K to NATO credibility................................................................................................35 NATO DA Link: Afghanistan...............................................................................................................................36 NATO DA Link : AFghanistan..............................................................................................................................37 NATO DA Link Burden Sharing...........................................................................................................................38 ***specific internal links--other internal links embedded in link or impact eve****.........................................39 NATO DA Cohesion- US Key internal link .........................................................................................................40 NATO DA Link- Burden Sharing .........................................................................................................................42 NATO DA INTERNAL Link --Turkey.................................................................................................................43 NATO DA: Internal Link- Cohesion Key to NATO.............................................................................................44 ***nato good***....................................................................................................................................................45 NATO Good LAUNDRY LIST...........................................................................................................................46 NATO: Good- Solves Afghanistan........................................................................................................................47 nato good NATO nuclear weapons= Good............................................................................................................48 NATO Good- solves terrorism...............................................................................................................................49 NATO Good terrorism........................................................................................................................................50 NATO Good IMPACT European Stability.........................................................................................................51 1 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO Good--multiple threats..............................................................................................................................52 nato good- Bioterror...............................................................................................................................................53 NATO Good- Cooperation....................................................................................................................................54 NATO Good- Democracy......................................................................................................................................55 Nato Prolif Impact...............................................................................................................................................56 Nato good Ethnic Conflict .................................................................................................................................57 NATO good/bad us Heg Impact.........................................................................................................................58 Nato good Russian Aggression Impact ................................................................................................................................................................................59 2 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO COHESION DA 1NC--NUCLEAR POLICY CHANGES (1/2) A. Nato cohesion is at a critical stage with new challenges- now is key Michta, Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, 4-1-10 (Andrew, Central Europe Digest, http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=231, SP) Today as we grapple with new challenges and out-of-area missions, NATO needs to revisit one old idea: its core territorial defense role. In a world where America has been hobbled by massive fiscal deficits, where China is positioning itself as a new hub of global power, where transnational threats continue to grow and where Russia reasserts itself in the "near abroad," the United States and Europe need to reach consensus on the meaning of common defense. If they are unwilling or unable to do so, the current drift will continue. To maintain allied cohesion and provide strategic reassurance to the allies along the periphery, the New Strategic Concept has to capture and reinforce one core premise: when it comes to out-of-area and territorial defense, NATO's mission can never be an either-or proposition. B. Link: US nuclear weapons in Europe key to NATO cohesion--multiple reasons Schlesinger, Chairman, Task force on DoD nuclear weapons management, 08 (James, The Secretary of defense task force on DoD nuclear weapons management, "Report of the...", http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/PhaseIIReportFinal.pdf, accessed 6/29/10, 12/18/08, RSW) Even though their number is modest, U.S. nuclear capabilities in Europe remain a pillar of NATO unity. The manner in which they are geographically deployed and politically employed provides several benefits: (1) the weapons couple U.S. and NATO security, tangibly assuring our allies of the United States' commitment to their security; (2) by extension they serve as an antiproliferation tool by obviating allies' need to develop and field their own nuclear arsenals; (3) each member of the Alliance receives the benefits of increased protection and deterrence, while the burden of surety and security responsibilities and military risks associated with nuclear weapons are shared by many; (4) spread out across a wide area, nuclear weapons in Europe are less vulnerable than if they were concentrated at a single location; and (5) NATO Dual-Capable Aircraft (DCA) contribute directly to the nuclear deterrent mission and increase the deterrent value of the weapons. They convey the will of multiple allied countries, creating real uncertainty for any country that might contemplate seeking political or military advantage through the threat or use of weapons of mass destruction against the Alliance. 3 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO COHESION DA 1NC--NUCLEAR POLICY CHANGES (2/2) C. Unified NATO is necessary to fight terrorist threats in Pakistan and Afghanistan VOA News, 2009 ("Biden Says NATO Unity Needed to Fight Terrorists in Afghanistan", http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2009-03/2009-03-10-voa28.cfm? CFID=249039126&CFTOKEN=58011356&jsessionid=8430185dfd3fa15f4e87765f5b6e3a810524, SP) U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is calling for a strong and united NATO to fight terrorist threats coming from Pakistan and Afghanistan. Biden spoke at the Brussels headquarters of the Atlantic alliance, telling NATO members he is in Brussels to listen and to consult - particularly about how to keep Afghanistan and Pakistan from becoming havens for terrorists. The United States is putting new focus on Afghanistan, adding more troops and looking for greater European support to counter the Taliban insurgency. Biden said it is critical the Atlantic alliance forge a common strategy to a common threat. "The United States believes we share a vital security interest in meeting that challenge; each of our countries has a vital interest from the point of view of the United States in meeting that challenge," he said. " The deteriorating situation in the region poses a security threat not just in the United States, but to every single nation around this table." Mr. Biden said the United States and Europe have already faced the consequences of the growing Islamist insurgency in Afghanistan and across the border in Pakistan. "It was from that remote area of the world that alQaida plotted 9/11. It was from that same area that extremists planned virtually every major terrorist attack in Europe since 9/11, including the attacks on London and Madrid," the vice president said. Biden said Washington is interested in a strong and coherent NATO. He says without that the alliance will be unable to face the threats of the 21st century. This theme is likely to be taken up again next month, when European and U.S. leaders meet for a summit in France and Germany to mark NATO's 60th anniversary. It also marks President Barack Obama's first trip to Europe since taking office in January. US retaliation to a terrorist attack causes global nuclear war. Corsi, PhD Poly Sci Harvard, 2005 (http://911review.org/Wget/worldnetdaily.com/NYC_hit_by_terrorist_nuke.html, SP) The combination of horror and outrage that will surge upon the nation will demand that the president retaliate for the incomprehensible damage done by the attack. The problem will be that the president will not immediately know how to respond or against whom. The perpetrators will have been incinerated by the explosion that destroyed New York City. Unlike 9-11, there will have been no interval during the attack when those hijacked could make phone calls to loved ones telling them before they died that the hijackers were radical Islamic extremists. There will be no such phone calls when the attack will not have been anticipated until the instant the terrorists detonate their improvised nuclear device inside the truck parked on a curb at the Empire State Building. Nor will there be any possibility of finding any clues, which either were vaporized instantly or are now lying physically inaccessible under tons of radioactive rubble. Still, the president, members of Congress, the military, and the public at large will suspect another attack by our known enemy Islamic terrorists. The first impulse will be to launch a nuclear strike on Mecca, to destroy the whole religion of Islam. Medina could possibly be added to the target list just to make the point with crystal clarity. Yet what would we gain? The moment Mecca and Medina were wiped off the map, the Islamic world more than 1 billion human beings in countless different nations would feel attacked. Nothing would emerge intact after a war between the United States and Islam. The apocalypse would be upon us. Then, too, we would face an immediate threat from our long-term enemy, the former Soviet Union. Many in the Kremlin would see this as an opportunity to grasp the victory that had been snatched from them by Ronald Reagan when the Berlin Wall came down. A missile strike by the Russians on a score of American cities could possibly be pre-emptive. Would the U.S. strategic defense system be so in shock that immediate retaliation would not be possible? Hardliners in Moscow might argue that there was never a better opportunity to destroy America. In China, our newer Communist enemies might not care if we could retaliate. With a population already over 1.3 billion people and with their population not concentrated in a few major cities, the Chinese might calculate to initiate a nuclear blow on the United States. What if the United States retaliated with a nuclear counterattack upon China? The Chinese might be able to absorb the blow and recover. The North Koreans might calculate even more recklessly. Why not launch upon America the few missiles they have that could reach our soil? More confusion and chaos might only advance their position. If Russia, China, and the United States could be drawn into attacking one another, North Korea might emerge stronger just because it was overlooked while the great nations focus on attacking one another. 4 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO COHESION DA 1NC--AFGHANISTAN TROOPS WITHDRAWAL (1/2) A. NATO recovering from Iraq- potential for split still exists Cuccia, Director of European Studies in the Regional Strategy and Planning Department of the Strategic Studies Institute, 2010 (Phillip, IMPLICATIONS OF A CHANGING NATO, May 2010, Strategic Studies Institute, 6/23/10, TS) <The development of differing views concerning security priorities among the NATO nations undoubtedly poses the greatest threat to NATO as an alliance. Such development can be viewed as a threat from within. One of the predominant threats in this area is the divergent view on what constitutes an Article 5 "armed attack." For clarity, Article 5 states: 16 The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.45 Given the pace of developing technology, cyber attacks have become more pervasive. The 2006 Comprehensive Political Guidance acknowledged that the evolving security environment will put a premium on improvements "to protect information systems of critical importance to the Alliance against cyber attacks." 46 The next logical step is for NATO to clearly define what it views as a "cyber attack" and to integrate that view into the new Strategic Concept. In addition, the NATO discussion concerning security priorities and potential threats needs to work toward a common understanding of what constitutes a terrorist attack meriting retaliation. The operative question should be "what has changed to warrant reform?" The political predominance of the United States in Western Europe which symbolized the Cold War did not seem to change much during the process of European integration after the Maastricht Treaty of 1992. This consolidation was slow but deliberate in maturation. However, the EU lacked the ability to act 17 as a bloc toward the conflict in the former Yugoslavia on its own. Later the 2003 U.S. intervention in Iraq demonstrated that individual European nations were not like-minded as the United States had hoped. Some European states participated, some remained neutral, and some actively opposed the "Coalition of the Willing." 47 The rupture seemed to heal somewhat with the NATO operation in Afghanistan, but the potential for major differences between Europe and the United States persists, particularly concerning relations with Russia.48 > B. Nato allies don't support increase in NATO troops in Afghanistan---wilL view the plan's withdrawal as way to increase demands on NATO, rupturing the Alliance Tisdall, The Guardian Staff Writer, 2004 (Simon, The Guardian, October 15, 2004, Overstretched US puts Nato under pressure, L/N, SP) US demands on the Nato alliance are growing more onerous as the American military struggles to meet global commitments. And Nato, which lost an evil empire and failed to find a role, is feeling the strain. This week's US proposal to integrate Nato's peacekeepers in Afghanistan with US combat troops fighting the "war on terror" there is a case in point. Germany and France, which jointly lead the 9,000-strong International Security and Assistance Force in Kabul, rejected the idea. They do not want their soldiers under US command. And they suspect the US would use a merger as cover for troop withdrawals. 5 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO COHESION DA 1NC--AFGHANISTAN TROOPS WITHDRAWAL (2/2) C. Unified NATO is necessary to fight terrorist threats in Pakistan and Afghanistan VOA News, 2009 ("Biden Says NATO Unity Needed to Fight Terrorists in Afghanistan", http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2009-03/2009-03-10-voa28.cfm? CFID=249039126&CFTOKEN=58011356&jsessionid=8430185dfd3fa15f4e87765f5b6e3a810524, SP) U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is calling for a strong and united NATO to fight terrorist threats coming from Pakistan and Afghanistan. Biden spoke at the Brussels headquarters of the Atlantic alliance, telling NATO members he is in Brussels to listen and to consult - particularly about how to keep Afghanistan and Pakistan from becoming havens for terrorists. The United States is putting new focus on Afghanistan, adding more troops and looking for greater European support to counter the Taliban insurgency. Biden said it is critical the Atlantic alliance forge a common strategy to a common threat. "The United States believes we share a vital security interest in meeting that challenge; each of our countries has a vital interest from the point of view of the United States in meeting that challenge," he said. " The deteriorating situation in the region poses a security threat not just in the United States, but to every single nation around this table." Mr. Biden said the United States and Europe have already faced the consequences of the growing Islamist insurgency in Afghanistan and across the border in Pakistan. "It was from that remote area of the world that alQaida plotted 9/11. It was from that same area that extremists planned virtually every major terrorist attack in Europe since 9/11, including the attacks on London and Madrid," the vice president said. Biden said Washington is interested in a strong and coherent NATO. He says without that the alliance will be unable to face the threats of the 21st century. This theme is likely to be taken up again next month, when European and U.S. leaders meet for a summit in France and Germany to mark NATO's 60th anniversary. It also marks President Barack Obama's first trip to Europe since taking office in January. US retaliation to a terrorist attack causes global nuclear war. Corsi, PhD Poly Sci Harvard, 2005 (http://911review.org/Wget/worldnetdaily.com/NYC_hit_by_terrorist_nuke.html, SP) The combination of horror and outrage that will surge upon the nation will demand that the president retaliate for the incomprehensible damage done by the attack. The problem will be that the president will not immediately know how to respond or against whom. The perpetrators will have been incinerated by the explosion that destroyed New York City. Unlike 9-11, there will have been no interval during the attack when those hijacked could make phone calls to loved ones telling them before they died that the hijackers were radical Islamic extremists. There will be no such phone calls when the attack will not have been anticipated until the instant the terrorists detonate their improvised nuclear device inside the truck parked on a curb at the Empire State Building. Nor will there be any possibility of finding any clues, which either were vaporized instantly or are now lying physically inaccessible under tons of radioactive rubble. Still, the president, members of Congress, the military, and the public at large will suspect another attack by our known enemy Islamic terrorists. The first impulse will be to launch a nuclear strike on Mecca, to destroy the whole religion of Islam. Medina could possibly be added to the target list just to make the point with crystal clarity. Yet what would we gain? The moment Mecca and Medina were wiped off the map, the Islamic world more than 1 billion human beings in countless different nations would feel attacked. Nothing would emerge intact after a war between the United States and Islam. The apocalypse would be upon us. Then, too, we would face an immediate threat from our long-term enemy, the former Soviet Union. Many in the Kremlin would see this as an opportunity to grasp the victory that had been snatched from them by Ronald Reagan when the Berlin Wall came down. A missile strike by the Russians on a score of American cities could possibly be pre-emptive. Would the U.S. strategic defense system be so in shock that immediate retaliation would not be possible? Hardliners in Moscow might argue that there was never a better opportunity to destroy America. In China, our newer Communist enemies might not care if we could retaliate. With a population already over 1.3 billion people and with their population not concentrated in a few major cities, the Chinese might calculate to initiate a nuclear blow on the United States. What if the United States retaliated with a nuclear counterattack upon China? The Chinese might be able to absorb the blow and recover. The North Koreans might calculate even more recklessly. Why not launch upon America the few missiles they have that could reach our soil? More confusion and chaos might only advance their position. If Russia, China, and the United States could be drawn into attacking one another, North Korea might emerge stronger just because it was overlooked while the great nations focus on attacking one another. 6 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA ****UNIQUENESS STRATEGIC CONCEPT**** 7 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA UNIQUENESS STRATEGIC CONCEPT = CROSSROADS Reconciliation through strategic concept increase alliance Albright, former US Secretary of State and head of Expert Panel for Nato Strategic Concept,2010. (Madeleine, assured security; dynamic engagement, 17 MAY 2010, http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2010_05/20100517_100517_expertsreport.pdf, 6/25/10, CF) <It is vital that Allies agree on what their core tasks are and on the need to maintain the capabilities required to fulfil them. NATO today is more active than at any previous time, yet its role in providing security is less obvious to many than it was during the Cold War. The new Strategic Concept offers an opportunity for reconciling differences of perspective and for dealing with novel situations. To this end, a fresh iteration of the core tasks of the Alliance is a necessary first step.> Strategic Concept in fall is key to NATO credibility. Goldgeier, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow for Transatlantic Relations, 2009 (http://hir.harvard.edU-index.php?page=article&id=1879&p=3, NATO's Future: Facing Old Divisions and New Threats, James Goldgeier, spring 2009) NATO has much to celebrate in the year of its 60th anniversary. In the twenty years since the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, NATO has incorporated much of Central and Eastern Europe into its membership. It responded to the threat that emerged on September 11, 2001 and sent troops far from home to combat the Taliban and al-Qaeda and to help reconstruct a war-torn country. And the French decision to rejoin NATO's integrated military command after a four decade absence will enable deeper cooperation both across the Atlantic and within Europe. But while NATO has gone far in adapting to the world after the earth-shattering events of 11/9 and 9/11, it continues to confront the existential question it has faced since the end of the Cold War: is an alliance of transatlantic democracies built to counter a possible Soviet attack the best instrument for combating the threats of the 21st century? NATO members have launched a process to articulate a new strategic concept in the coming year that will define their purpose going forward. In doing so, they must respond to at least three critical challenges. First, the alliance has only a handful of members willing and able to engage in military operations in places such as Afghanistan, and cajoling by the Secretary-General and others about the need for the rest to do more has had little impact. Second, its relations with Russia remain rocky even as a new US administration has promised to push the "reset button" with the Kremlin. Finally, some NATO members have understood the alliance must develop closer ties to non-European democracies in a globalizing world, but the majority of members fear a dilution of the alliance's transatlantic character if NATO "goes global." 8 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA INTERNAL LINK US KEY TO AFGHANISTAN NATO POLICY U.S. key to NATO presence in Afghanistan Sloan Visiting Scholar at Middlebury College `10 (Stanley, UNISCI Discussion papers, January 2010, proquest, 6/25/10, EL) The story of NATO in Afghanistan is far from over. In some ways, the European allies only now are realizing the full consequences of offering to help their American allies in their hour of need. Mistakes were made. The United States made the first one by invading Afghanistan without devoting the time, attention and resources to the task of stabilizing the defeated and failed state. Yet the European allies have also contributed to the problem by severely limiting the manpower and resources they were willing to commit to the conflict. The constraints many allies placed on the forces they did deploy made if difficult if not impossible for NATO to construct a coherent effort on the ground. The European Union, which has access to many of the non-military assets not commanded by NATO, was slow and tentative in contributing, some say because EU officials were reluctant to play second fiddle to NATO and the United States in Afghanistan.64 Ultimately, among all the external actors in Afghanistan, the United States will have the decisive influence on success or failure. The Afghan and Pakistani people and governments will also play critical roles, frequently beyond the influence of all external actors. Yet the persistence and effectiveness of the American effort will ultimately determine whether the Western nations remain in Afghanistan long enough to help the country achieve selfsufficiency without overstaying their welcome and subsequently appearing as an enemy occupation force. 9 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA INTERNAL LINK US KEY TO AFGHANISTAN NATO POLICY U.S. key to NATO stability and credibility McNamara Senior Policy Analyst, European Affairs `10 (Sally, The Heritage Foundation, 3/17/10, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Testimony/Transatlantic-Security-in-the-21st-CenturyDo-New-Threats-Require-New-Approaches, 6/25/10, PS) NATO is not a perfect alliance; it has failings, epitomized not least of all by the inequitable burden-sharing among the allies in Afghanistan. It is probably crunch time in addressing these long-standing failings too, since President Obama seems to have less forbearance than his predecessors in tolerating them. But the perfect can not be the enemy of the good. Reforming and revitalizing NATO is the answer to addressing existing and future threats, not abolishing or undermining it. Reforming and revitalizing NATO will be a massive undertaking requiring American leadership and an Administration committed to a NATO-first agenda. Without American leadership, NATO will fail. The golden opportunity to rejuvenate NATO is in the lead-up to the NATO Summit in Lisbon at the end of this year, where NATO's latest strategic concept will be unveiled. NATO's strategic concept outlines the alliance's purpose, organization, and tasks, and it will be based on an updated threat perception. NATO, like any truly strategic organization, has built-in mechanisms to recognize and address the changing security environment, as it did with new strategic concepts in 1991 and 1999. Just as the OSCE molded itself to the post-Cold War environment under the Charter of Paris for a New Europe, so did NATO; hence how new threats can be addressed by existing institutions. It is vital that in recognizing new threats, such as cyberterrorism and ballistic missile proliferation, NATO does not merely pay lip service to them. Resources and political will are required to confront the vast range of symmetrical and asymmetric threats facing the alliance. It is equally vital that NATO does not overburden itself with threats which it has neither the will nor the mandate to address, such as climate change. There are certain threats and challenges, while important to some members, that simply do not belong in NATO's basket of responsibilities. Above all, the United States must reinforce the primacy of NATO in Europe's security architecture. If the primacy of NATO in the transatlantic security architecture is not upheld, little else can be achieved. Neither the European Union nor Russia is capable of supplanting America's leadership role on the Continent in a stable, productive or healthy way. 10 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA UNIQUENESS STRATEGIC CONCEPT= CROSSROADS NATO determined to solve future security challenges Oxford Analytica Daily Brief Service `10 (Oxford Analytica Daily Brief Service `10, 1/15/10, proquest, 6/25/10, EL) The alliance has lived with such divisions for the last two decades and has dreamt of joint financing since the 1960s. Thus a compromise will probably emerge: The list of future threats the alliance is expected to meet may include some 'non-traditional' challenges, but also restate the core purpose of collective security. Rasmussen has already hinted that he is not in favour of being too imaginative: "grabbing too much equates with grabbing nothing," a senior alliance official has said. NATO's determination to contribute to world security is likely to be restated but, at the same time, the understanding is that the alliance is unlikely to undertake another Afghanistan-type operation soon. In short, Afghanistan will not be characterised as a one-off experience, but neither will it be portrayed as a pointer for the future. Although no common funding is likely to be created, member states may undertake to compile a list of equipment that could be made available to NATO's secretary-general at a moment's notice. Finally, the new 'Strategic Concept' may emphasise public diplomacy, explaining the alliance's purpose to the ordinary voter. The group of wise men working on the document includes no senior military officers, precisely because the task is to explain the alliance in layman's terms. 11 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA UNIQUENESS STRATEGIC CONCEPT = KEY CROSSROADS NATO to select key concepts fundamental to basic operation Oxford Analytica Daily Brief Service `10 (Oxford Analytica Daily Brief Service `10, 1/15/10, proquest, 6/25/10, EL) Missions Some bigger and older Western member states argue that NATO should engage outside the Euro-Atlantic region if it is to remain relevant, particularly to the United States. The mantra that NATO must go 'out of area or out of business' still attracts strong support. Yet most new members are sceptical about overseas adventures; they are interested in the original purpose of NATO: territorial defence. Future threats Older member states expect NATO to become more innovative, dealing with such security threats as terrorism, cyberwarfare or climate change. Newer members are primarily concerned with how the alliance deters a potential threat from Russia, perceived as the only nation on the European landmass capable of challenging the security status quo. From the Central-East European (CEE) standpoint, creating a new shopping list of threats smacks of either frivolity or an attempt to ignore realities.> Resources NATO's bureaucracy has long argued for the creation of common capabilities -- such as joint transport, strategic airlift, intelligence sharing and communications -- in order to enable quick deployments into theatres of operations. This would require a shift in the way NATO is funded, from the current system under which each country pays for its own contributions, to one in which everyone pays into a common pot. Some CEE nations (as well as the United States) like the idea; other big financial contributors -- the United Kingdom, France and Germany -- do not. 12 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA UNIQUENESS STRATEGIC CONCEPT= CROSSROADS Newly developed strategic concept will define NATOs future Brezezinski Center for strategic and international studies counselor and trustee `09 (Zbigniew, Foreign Affairs, sep/oct 09, proquest, 6/25/10, EL) NATO'S 6OTH anniversary, celebrated in April with pomp and circumstance by the leaders of nearly 30 allied states, generated little public interest. NATO's historical role was treated as a bore. In the opinion-shaping media, there were frequent derisive dismissals and even calls for the termination of the alliance as a dysfunctional geostrategic irrelevance. Russian spokespeople mocked it as a Cold War relic. Even France's decision to return to full participation in NATO's integrated military structures - after more than 40 years of abstention aroused relatively little positive commentary. Yet France's actions spoke louder than words. A state with a proud sense of its universal vocation sensed something about NATO - not the NATO of the Cold War but the NATO of the twenty-first century - that made it rejoin the world's most important military alliance at a time of far-reaching changes in the world's security dynamics. France's action underlined NATO's vital political role as a regional alliance with growing global potential. In assessing NATO'S evolving role, one has to take into account the historical fact that in the course of its 60 years the alliance has institutionalized three truly monumental transformations in world affairs: first, the end of the centuries-long "civil war" within the West for transoceanic and European supremacy; second, the United States' post-World War II commitment to the defense of Europe against Soviet domination (resulting from either a political upheaval or even World War III); and third, the peaceful termination of the Cold War, which ended the geopolitical division of Europe and created the preconditions for a larger democratic European Union. These successes, however, give rise to a legitimate question: What next? What are the implications and lessons to be drawn from the past 60 years? NATO's new secretary-general has been tasked to "develop a new Strategic Concept and submit proposals for its implementation for approval at [NATO 's] next summit." Given the current and likely future security dilemmas confronting the alliance, that new concept will have to deal with at least four fundamental challenges: first, how to attain a politically acceptable outcome for NATO's deepening engagement in the overlapping Afghan and Pakistani conflicts; second, how to update the meaning and obligations of "collective security" as embodied in Article 5 of the alliance's treaty; third, how to engage Russia in a binding and mutually beneficial relationship with Europe and the wider North Atlantic community; and fourth, how to respond to novel global security dilemmas. The first two of these challenges pertain to NATO's credibility as a regional U. S. -European alliance, the latter two to its potential global role. Failing to cope with any one of these four challenges could undermine the three transformational legacies of NATO noted earlier. And those legacies, far from being only of historical significance, are relevant to the alliance's globally important mission today. 13 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA UNIQUENESS- NATO CROSSROADS NATO needs credibility to implement Strategic Concept Ullman, UPI Outside View Commentator, 2010 (Harlan, Outside View: NATO's future backbone is needed, February 24, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/2010/02/24/Outside-View-NATOs-future-backbone-is-needed/UPI-60831267016940/ , accessed: 6/23/10, TS) <Here, one reality obtains: NATO is at a profound crossroads. It can therefore deal directly and frontally with the challenges it faces along with strongly held differences of opinions on a future course. Or it may not. Either choice could weaken or rejuvenate the alliance. To resolve this dilemma, strong leadership among the heads of government is essential to demand the direct approach wins out, softened perhaps on the margins but only the margins. Otherwise, in all likelihood, the Strategic Concept will become milquetoast and paper over these powerful, centrifugal forces that left unchecked will weaken and possibly collapse the alliance. Hence, at the very least, the strategic concept must take on this matter of relevancy or relic and explain in understandable language how and why NATO is relevant and crucial to the future security of the Atlantic community. If the concept cannot do that, NATO tragically will become moribund and even a relic. If it can, NATO's best days lie ahead but backbone is needed to make that happen.> 14 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor ***COHESION HIGH NOW**** NATO COHESION/UNITY DA 15 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA U- NATO COHESIVE NOW NATO recovering from Iraq- potential for split still exists Cuccia, Director of European Studies in the Regional Strategy and Planning Department of the Strategic Studies Institute, 2010 (Phillip, IMPLICATIONS OF A CHANGING NATO, May 2010, Strategic Studies Institute, 6/23/10, TS) <The development of differing views concerning security priorities among the NATO nations undoubtedly poses the greatest threat to NATO as an alliance. Such development can be viewed as a threat from within. One of the predominant threats in this area is the divergent view on what constitutes an Article 5 "armed attack." For clarity, Article 5 states: 16 The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.45 Given the pace of developing technology, cyber attacks have become more pervasive. The 2006 Comprehensive Political Guidance acknowledged that the evolving security environment will put a premium on improvements "to protect information systems of critical importance to the Alliance against cyber attacks." 46 The next logical step is for NATO to clearly define what it views as a "cyber attack" and to integrate that view into the new Strategic Concept. In addition, the NATO discussion concerning security priorities and potential threats needs to work toward a common understanding of what constitutes a terrorist attack meriting retaliation. The operative question should be "what has changed to warrant reform?" The political predominance of the United States in Western Europe which symbolized the Cold War did not seem to change much during the process of European integration after the Maastricht Treaty of 1992. This consolidation was slow but deliberate in maturation. However, the EU lacked the ability to act 17 as a bloc toward the conflict in the former Yugoslavia on its own. Later the 2003 U.S. intervention in Iraq demonstrated that individual European nations were not like-minded as the United States had hoped. Some European states participated, some remained neutral, and some actively opposed the "Coalition of the Willing." 47 The rupture seemed to heal somewhat with the NATO operation in Afghanistan, but the potential for major differences between Europe and the United States persists, particularly concerning relations with Russia.48 > 16 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA U- NATO CREDIBILITY INCREASING NOW--PERFORMANCE NATO performance is increasing re-establishing credibility Cuccia, Director of European Studies in the Regional Strategy and Planning Department of the Strategic Studies Institute, 2010 (Phillip, IMPLICATIONS OF A CHANGING NATO, May 2010, Strategic Studies Institute, 6/23/10, TS) Today, NATO may not be performing as the welloiled machine that most wish it would be, but it certainly is performing a lot better than it was in 2002 and 2003, which was clearly one of the most difficult 5 periods of its 60 years of existence. Just 2 months after NATO declared an Article 5 emergency for the first time in its history in response to the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the United States turned aside offers of assistance for the invasion of Afghanistan because of the perception of lack of political will to employ force at effective levels. In addition, some European forces lacked the precision strike capabilities desired even if the political will was present to use those weapons. European partners became embarrassed as they were effectively marginalized. This embarrassment, in part, led to the 2002 Prague Summit decision to create ACT and launch the NATO Response Force (NRF) but the contentious intra-Alliance debate over the invasion of Iraq soon caused fissures between the U.S./U.K. subcoalition and its German and French counterpart.10 > 17 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA U-COHESION NOW--STRATEGIC CONCEPT Strategic Concept limits increases cohesion Eversteijn, researcher at Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, 2010(Djorn Eversteijn, What Should NATO's New Strategic Concept Look Like?, April 21, 2010, Atlantic- Community.org) The Strategic Concept is expected to provide history's most successful military alliance with a new strategic guideline that is to reinforce the organisation's purpose and strengthen its resolve within the realm of international security for the coming decade. This implies that the Strategic Concept anticipates strategic shifts and developments within the international system. This generates the first question of whether, and if yes, to what extent, the new Strategic Concept will be successful in looking ahead beyond the current strategic outlook. Should NATO focus primarily on irregular challenges, keeping contingencies for more conventional threats to international security on the shelf, or should it focus on so called hybrid challenges, and more specifically, what would adequate and efficient responses to these challenges look like? In order to formulate a successful outlook one first needs to find common ground regarding the North Atlantic Treaty Association's profile, which should be more adequately transferred to the general public within the various NATO-member states. Generating and expanding public awareness about the North Atlantic Treaty Association - especially amongst the younger generations - will reinforce public support, and therefore remains pivotal for NATO's relevance in the 21st century. Furthermore, in order to remain of significance, the new strategic concept ought to acknowledge that the organisation's capacities are limited, and therefore prioritize between areas of vital and peripheral interest. Should NATO remain a collective defence organisation that is predominantly focused on its member states' territorial defence, or should it be formally "transformed" into a collective security organisation that acknowledges that international security and the national interests of its member states will be increasingly although not solely - threatened by challenges outside the organisation's traditional territorial boundaries? The second question concerns NATO's internal cohesion in the 21st century. The so called "desolidarisation" within the alliance is primarily centred around prevailing different perceptions within its member states about the security challenges in which NATO should or should not engage. Although all NATO members allegedly agree that the collective defence clause of the Washington Treaty ought to remain pivotal in the 21st century, ambiguous perceptions regarding adequate responses to both current and so called "new" challenges to cyber and energy security; resource scarcity; or security challenges posed by rising powers and non-state actors; the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; or climate change remain omnipresent. 18 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA U- NATO ALIVE NATO lives despite the end of the Cold War Hamilton et al, Director Center for Transatlantic Relations SAIS JHU, 2009 (Daniel, Alliance Reborn: An Atlantic Compact for the 21st Century The Washington NATO Project, February, accessed: June 25, TS) <With the Cold War over and new powers rising, some argue that the transatlantic partnership has had its day. We disagree. Our achievements may not always match our aspirations, but the common body of accumulated principles, norms, rules and procedures we have built and accumulated together in essence, an acquis Atlantique -- affirms the basic expectations we have for ourselves and for each other. For sixty years this foundation has made the transatlantic relationship the world's transformative partnership. North America's relationship with Europe enables each of us to achieve goals together that neither can alone for ourselves and for the world. This still distinguishes our relationship: when we agree, we are usually the core of any effective global coalition. When we disagree, no global coalition is likely to be very effective. Our partnership remains as vital as in the past, but now we must focus on a new agenda. Today's strategic environment is complex and unpredictable. North America and Europe still face the menace of terrorism and the potential for conflict between major states. Yet a host of unorthodox challenges demand our urgent attention. These challenges require us to affirm our mutual defense commitment within a wider spectrum of security; reposition our key institutions and mechanisms, particularly U.S.-EU partnership and NATO; and connect better with other partners. Five strategic priorities loom large. Together, Europe and North America must o tackle immediate economic challenges while positioning economies for the future; o build transatlantic resilience protect our connectedness, not just our territory; o address the full range of international security challenges we face together; o continue to work toward a Europe whole, free, and at peace with itself; o reinvigorate transatlantic efforts to preserve a habitable planet. NATO is indispensable yet insufficient to this agenda. A new U.S.-EU framework, anchored by a clause of mutual assistance, and other institutional innovations are needed. In a companion report we will address U.S.-EU partnership in greater detail.> 19 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO ALLIANCE COHESION STRONG NOW NATO alliance is strong now cooperation over Afghanistan proves The Jordan Times 7-1-10 (http://www.jordantimes.com/?news=27937) NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has highlighted the importance of the alliance's partnerships with Muslim countries in its endeavour to bring stability to Afghanistan. During a briefing of Arab journalists at NATO headquarters in Brussels earlier this week, Rasmussen said it has been his priority to further develop cooperation with the Mediterranean basin countries ever since he took over the position in 2009. Talking to journalists from the Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI) countries following the June 10-11 NATO defence ministers' meeting, Rasmussen said partnerships - with countries or private entities - are important and easy to create because "we are faced with the same security challenges - terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and piracy - which can effectively be dealt with through cooperation across borders". Partnerships with Muslim countries, he said, need to be forged to obtain "military contributions and training assistance in Afghanistan", where NATO is working towards building local capacity to fight the Taliban, but also "to contribute to development, including humanitarian assistance". Acknowledging the important role Muslim partners can play particularly in Afghanistan, Rasmussen said they "can draw on their cultural and religious background and provide assistance, which is highly appreciated by the local Afghans". Proof of "practical cooperation" within the ICI and MD and, more importantly, of the fact that it has grown in recent years, is evident in the increase of cooperative projects, which rose from 100 to 700. 20 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO DA UNIQUENESS: AT "AFGHANISTAN CRUSHES COHESION" NATO agrees for More Troops in Afghanistan to Ensures Success McNamara is Senior Policy Analyst in European Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, 09 (Sally, Heritage Foundation, 12-3, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/12/nato-allies-in-europe-must-do-more-inafghanistan, 6/29/10, AU) Combat Troops. In his report, General McChrystal stipulated that 40,000-60,000 troops would give his strategy a medium chance of success and that 60,000-80,000 additional troops would maximize his strategy's chance for success as well as reduce the risks to NATO forces. The deployment of just 30,000 U.S. troops restricts the sheer geographical area that can be covered and, unless backfilled by other NATO allies, will fail to achieve a key NATO priority: protection of Afghan civilians.[32] A true counterinsurgency strategy can be implemented only with a higher troop-to-civilian ratio. Having endorsed General McChrystal's assessment at the October ministerial meeting, NATO has already given its political blessing to the strategy, but NATO's European members need to work with the United States to fully resource General McChrystal's recommendations. 21 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor ****NOW KEY TIME***** NATO COHESION/UNITY DA 22 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA U- NOW KEY TIME- NATO COHESION NATO must shift mission to increase credibility Gagor, doctorate in military science from the National Defence University in Warsaw, 2010 (Francisek, Essay: NATO's essential modern role, June 2010, http://www.afji.com/2010/06/4622563, accessed: 6/23/10, TS) <First, we should starkly underline that there is still much room for potential improvement in NATO's efficiency and visibility. Although NATO is a historic accomplishment and a success story, its past should not overshadow the raison d'tre of the transAtlantic community of today. In fact, the events of the first decade of this millennium might be the last clarion call for NATO to commence the crucial shift to a multipolar vision. NATO must assume the role of an international creative force ready to address the newest global challenges and threats. The path to achieve that goal encompasses the effective fulfillment of two current challenges: the Afghan mission and NATO's new strategic concept. > Now key time for NATO credibility- must pursue reform Gagor, doctorate in military science from the National Defence University in Warsaw, 2010 (Francisek, Essay: NATO's essential modern role, June 2010, http://www.afji.com/2010/06/4622563, accessed: 6/23/10, TS) <NATO finds itself at the crossroads where only one path leads to victory and success. The member states do not need a talk-shop, even if it is full of clairvoyant promises. What NATO has always aspired to is an effective collective defense organization committed to the strengthening of the trans-Atlantic community. NATO, being the alliance of hope for all the 900 million people in the member states, must pursue the necessary reforms, bearing in mind that its founding values are still an indisputable source of its strength.> 23 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA U- NATO CREDIBILITY- NOW KEY TIME Now key time for NATO Credibility Gagor, doctorate in military science from the National Defence University in Warsaw, 2010 (Francisek, Essay: NATO's essential modern role, June 2010, http://www.afji.com/2010/06/4622563, accessed: 6/23/10, TS) <once again, international headlines question the future utility of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Now is high time to remind the world of how the historical role of the alliance informs the missions it has to accomplish today. The alliance has always operated in a changing security environment. The first decade of the 21st century reaffirms a truth in the international security domain that has applied from antiquity to modern time: Change is constant and the unexpected prevails. For those who might doubt the permanent volatility of the international environment, witness the spread of global extremism and the conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq and Georgia. Moreover, observe the gamut of newly emerging nonlethal threats, combined with what might be called the first great crisis of globalization, the global financial meltdown of 2007 to the present. We design and build security structures to carry us through change. As history teaches us, change may not necessarily bring more peace and stability to the world. It is worth noting that military force and its global projection will remain one of the fundamental pillars of the world's security architecture in the next decades. NATO, with all its strengths and weaknesses, has plunged into a new security reality and must do more than simply adapt to it. > Redefine collective security key to nato Yost, Professor at Naval Postgraduate School, 2010 (David, International Affairs, 3/10/10, http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/123318689/PDFSTART, 6/29/10, TW) In short, the political meaning given to collective defence by the allies appears to be in transition. It seems to be no longer limited to the reactive defence of the national territories of the allies. Mainly in response to the new threats apparent since 11 September 2001, the allies have taken a more proactive approach and have articulated a willingness to act against emerging and imminent threats. While the treaty obligations for collective defence remain as defined by Articles 5 and 6, the allies have suggested a broader scope for collective defence in some of their statements and actions. 24 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA UNIQUENESS STRATEGIC CONCEPT= CROSSROADS Newly developed strategic concept will define NATOs future Brezezinski Center for strategic and international studies counselor and trustee `09 (Zbigniew, Foreign Affairs, sep/oct 09, proquest, 6/25/10, EL) NATO'S 6OTH anniversary, celebrated in April with pomp and circumstance by the leaders of nearly 30 allied states, generated little public interest. NATO's historical role was treated as a bore. In the opinion-shaping media, there were frequent derisive dismissals and even calls for the termination of the alliance as a dysfunctional geostrategic irrelevance. Russian spokespeople mocked it as a Cold War relic. Even France's decision to return to full participation in NATO's integrated military structures - after more than 40 years of abstention aroused relatively little positive commentary. Yet France's actions spoke louder than words. A state with a proud sense of its universal vocation sensed something about NATO - not the NATO of the Cold War but the NATO of the twenty-first century - that made it rejoin the world's most important military alliance at a time of far-reaching changes in the world's security dynamics. France's action underlined NATO's vital political role as a regional alliance with growing global potential. In assessing NATO'S evolving role, one has to take into account the historical fact that in the course of its 60 years the alliance has institutionalized three truly monumental transformations in world affairs: first, the end of the centuries-long "civil war" within the West for transoceanic and European supremacy; second, the United States' post-World War II commitment to the defense of Europe against Soviet domination (resulting from either a political upheaval or even World War III); and third, the peaceful termination of the Cold War, which ended the geopolitical division of Europe and created the preconditions for a larger democratic European Union. These successes, however, give rise to a legitimate question: What next? What are the implications and lessons to be drawn from the past 60 years? NATO's new secretary-general has been tasked to "develop a new Strategic Concept and submit proposals for its implementation for approval at [NATO 's] next summit." Given the current and likely future security dilemmas confronting the alliance, that new concept will have to deal with at least four fundamental challenges: first, how to attain a politically acceptable outcome for NATO's deepening engagement in the overlapping Afghan and Pakistani conflicts; second, how to update the meaning and obligations of "collective security" as embodied in Article 5 of the alliance's treaty; third, how to engage Russia in a binding and mutually beneficial relationship with Europe and the wider North Atlantic community; and fourth, how to respond to novel global security dilemmas. The first two of these challenges pertain to NATO's credibility as a regional U. S. -European alliance, the latter two to its potential global role. Failing to cope with any one of these four challenges could undermine the three transformational legacies of NATO noted earlier. And those legacies, far from being only of historical significance, are relevant to the alliance's globally important mission today. 25 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor ****LINKS***** NATO COHESION/UNITY DA 26 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO DA LINK- DECREASE US NUCLEAR WEAPONS Changes in Nuclear policy fractures NATO alliance Thranert, Senior Fellow in the International Security Research Division of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin, 2009 (Oliver, NATO Missile Defence and Extended Deterrence, : http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00396330903461674, date accessed 6/25/10, TS) <Eastern Europeans particularly value America's presence in Europe to counterbalance Russia in light of their 40 years as unwilling parts of the Soviet empire, which distinguishes them from NATO members who experienced the Cold War from the other side of the Iron Curtain. Today, many new NATO members view Russia as increasingly authoritarian, and Moscow's foreign and security policy as assertive, if not aggressive. After the Caucasus crisis of 2008 Eastern Europeans feel the need more than ever to engage the United States militarily in Europe for their protection. These new NATO members are likely to oppose any development that might lead to the imminent withdrawal of US nuclear forces from Europe, fearing a weakening of the US commitment.> NUCLEAR WEAPONS GOOD FOR DETERRENCE---AND FOR NATO Kulesa analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs `09 (Lukask, March 2009, 6/26/10,EL) What could the nuclear weapons be good for, then? As the UK's 2006 White Paper on the future of the British nuclear deterrent puts it, nuclear weapons can function as "insurance against the uncertainties and risks of the future". As the international system undergoes a fundamental transformation (the relative decline of the power of the United States and Europe, the re-emergence of the elements of the great powers rivalry, possible challenges to the stability of the system posed by the revisionist states), the "insurance" concept should be adopted as the backbone of the nuclear strategy of NATO. The unique characteristic of nuclear weapons is the scale of the destruction they cause, and this should be kept in mind when discussing NATO's strategy. The presence of nuclear weapons in the Alliance's arsenal would keep the opponent ever vigilant of the possibility of the infliction of massive damage in response to an attack. To put it bluntly, in the future NATO might still need to emphasize the element of terror in keeping relations with its opponents in a delicate balance. It would be premature to move towards a non-nuclear NATO. Nuclear weapons will remain a valuable tool in any future contingency in which the Alliance is confronted with a hostile, nucleararmed country. This includes the worst-case scenarios of Iran armed with nuclear weapons, an autocratic and aggressive Russia, or a possible emergence of the next nuclear players, especially in the Middle East. The nuclear potential of NATO would in any case not be meant for fighting a war, but rather to establish a framework for relations with other nuclear-armed countries by removing both the direct possibility of strategic blackmail of the Allies and the threat of Europe emerging as the "second best" target for those engaged in a confrontation with the United States. 27 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO DA UNIQUE LINK- TNW NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO has yet to take a stance on TNW's next actions crucial---plan would enter into supercharged environment disrupting alliance **NOTE IT ALSO SAYS CONSULT Ruhle, Head, Speechwriting and Senior Political Adviser in the NATO Secretary General's Policy Planning Unit, 2009 (Michael, NATO and Extended Deterrence in a Multinuclear World, http://www.aicgs.org/documents/advisor/ruehle0209.pdf, accessed: 6/25/10, TS) <NATO's post-Cold War nuclear posture in Europe was in a holding pattern in order to preserve both the weapons and the key principles of nuclear sharing and extended deterrence in an unclear strategic environment. It is therefore not without irony that, just as the contours of a newnuclear environment are becoming clear--and should lead to a reappraisal of nuclear sharing--NATO's policy is being attacked even by some erstwhile political "realists" as being incompatible with their new, far-reaching global arms control schemes. Whether NATO will endorse this logic of pitting nuclear sharing against disarmament objectives remains to be seen. Even if NATO is increasingly defined by its missions and operations, it also continues to play an indispensable role in maintaining Europe's political order. The desire of some allies to obtain bilateral security assurances from the United States in addition to those of NATO is just the most recent indication that even in a Europe that is largely pacified, the need for the "American Pacifier" has not diminished. It is perhaps for this reason that, thus far, allied views have remained remarkably consistent in endorsing the need for nuclear deterrence, the presence of U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe, and the need for consultation and burden sharing. Neither the proverbial "nuclear allergy" in some allied nations nor the prospect of having to face up to some tough modernization decisions have changed this. NATO's new strategic concept may thus reflect the same inherent conservatism on nuclear matters than its predecessors, even if might contain more explicit language on the dangers of proliferation, on the need for missile defense, and, as a tribute to the 2010 NPT Review Conference, on the importance of arms control. Even if some allies were to champion an "abolitionist" cause, the need for consensus among 28 or even more allies would marginalize such views. The new strategic concept thus might reiterate the longstanding NATO nuclear consensus. However, at some later stage, both the aircraft and the weapons will eventually have to be replaced, and the aging infrastructure will have to be modernized. For some nations, such a decision will be politically difficult. It is therefore all the more important that the strategic debate focuses on the challenges of managing security in a multinuclear world, and does not get hijacked by abolitionist delusions. True, withdrawing TNW from Europe would not mean the end of extended deterrence. It would, however, mean the end of a unique era of nuclear sharing and transparency; emphasize the difference between nuclear and nonnuclear members; and "renationalize" nuclear weapons by turning them again into symbols of purely national power and prestige. Although the NATO alliance would gloss over such a regression by simply redefining the requirements of extended deterrence, the preferred outcome of intra-Alliance deliberations in the coming years should be a different one. Acknowledging the emergence of a second nuclear age, allies should realize that arms control is a mere tactic, yet extended deterrence is a key principle of maintaining international order.> 28 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO DA LINK--TNWS SIGNAL OF COMMITMENT TNWs are the symbol of US commitment to alliance British American Security Information Council, 2010 (British American Security Information Council, January 2010, http://www.basicint.org/pubs/BASIC-MindtheGapNATOnuclear.pdf, 6/29/10, TW) NATO has 28 members and aspires to welcome new ones, by its own standards a measure of extraordinary success in the two decades since the collapse of the Soviet empire; on the surface it is as strong as it ever has been. Yet the Alliance remains haunted by the ghosts of the past, as the members from "new Europe" bring with them their experience of the Soviet boot and their fears for future relations with a seemingly resurgent Russia. It is this weight of history and differences in threat perception that threatens to paralyze the Alliance and drive its members apart. This compels us to search for new and credible solutions to break out of the Cold War mould that bedevils the organization, threatens its cohesion, and brings doubt to its fundamental purposes. Whilst NATO's nuclear posture is not itself a cause of this challenge, it lies at its heart. Whilst there is little doubt that support for extended nuclear deterrence remains throughout the Alliance, the existence of an estimated 200 forward-deployed so-called `tactical' nuclear weapons in western Europe with limited range is a Cold War relic. Support for their continued deployment appears to revolve largely around the symbolism of American commitment to the continent, and the fear of signals sent were they to be removed. Reduction of TNWs causes reduction of US commitment to NATO McNamara and Spring, Senior Policy Analyst and F.M. Kirby Research Fellow, 2010 (Sally and Baker, The Heritage Organization, 3/4/10, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/03/president-obama-must-notremove-nuclear-weapons-from-europe, 6/29/10, TW) The removal of American tactical nuclear weapons could also encourage a hostile nation to seek similar weapons if it perceives America's indifference to the transatlantic alliance. Russia and rogue states such as Iran and Syria could be emboldened by America's retreat from its security commitments to Europe. Russia has already proved itself to be an authoritarian power, seeking to regain influence over its former satellites. In short, the ramifications of this measure are unpredictable and likely to be contrary to President Obama's goal of nuclear disarmament. 29 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO DA LINK: US TNW WITHDRAWAL FROM TURKEY Removing TNWs from turkey kills NATO credibility Borger Guardian's diplomatic editor `10 (Julian,11/6/09,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/06/germany-removal-us-nuclear-weapons,6/24/10, EL) The current Nato concept, written in 1999, says: "Nuclear forces based in Europe and committed to Nato provide an essential political and military link between the European and the North American members of the alliance. The alliance will therefore maintain adequate nuclear forces in Europe." It is that clause that is now under scrutiny, in a push to downgrade the role of nuclear weapons in global security. In France two former prime ministers, Alain Juppe and Michel Rocard, as well as a retired general, signed a joint letter to Le Monde newspaper calling for "the structured elimination of nuclear weapons" and arguing that France should be prepared to negotiate on its own independent deterrent.The letter was a challenge to President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has resisted the calls for eventual nuclear abolition led by Barack Obama and Gordon Brown.There are an estimated 200 US weapons mostly tactical left in Europe, deployed in Turkey, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany. Their future is also being debated within the Obama administration as it prepares a new "nuclear posture review" due early next year. Removing TNW's from NATO soil hurts NATO Security Ruhle, Head, Speechwriting and Senior Political Adviser in the NATO Secretary General's Policy Planning Unit, 2009 (Michael, NATO and Extended Deterrence in a Multinuclear World, http://www.aicgs.org/documents/advisor/ruehle0209.pdf, accessed: 6/25/10, TS) <The Japanese example is a clear reminder of the limits of a mere "virtual" security guarantee by the United States. Whenever there is another crisis around North Korea, the U.S. commitment is questioned, andWashington hastens to reassure Tokyo of its unflinching support. Japanese nervousness has meanwhile led to the break with an erstwhile taboo: a debate about a Japanese nuclear option is no longer considered illegitimate. For a host of political and historical reasons, the scenario of a nuclear Japan remains unlikely. Other U.S. allies in Asia, however, have demonstrated that doubts in the U.S. commitment could lead to the search for national alternatives, including nuclear ones. In the past, both Taiwan and South Korea tried their hand at civilian nuclear programs with clear military applications. These programs were only stopped after Washington exerted significant political pressure. Turkish analysts, too, have been warning that a nuclear Iran might change their country's security calculus. However, nowhere does the new nuclear reality become more obvious than in the Middle East and the Gulf. As a response to Iran's nuclear ambitions, twelve countries in that region have declared their intention to launch or relaunch civilian nuclear programs. While not all of these programs may be intended as a hedge against Iran, it is widely assumed that Sunni Saudi Arabia will not remain passive if a nuclear-armed Shiite Iran were to strive for regional hegemony. Saudi Arabia's longstanding ties with Pakistan would suggest that Riyadh could respond to a nuclear Iran rather quickly, namely by purchasing rather than developing weapons of its own. In any case, if the nuclearization of the Middle East were to happen, Europe would be faced with a neighboring region in which each conventional conflict would carry nuclear escalation risks. This explains why the principle of nuclear sharing has not lost its relevance with the end of the Cold War. It is supposed to spare Europe the nervousness that is so palpable in theMiddle East and Asia. Of course, with Europe's security situation constantly improving, such reflections may appear far-fetched. However, it is only a matter of time until Europe will find itself in a much less comfortable position. Russia's heavy-handed approach to the crisis in the Caucasus in the summer of 2008 offered a first example of how outside events can change European threat perceptions. Although Russia's disproportional use of military force against Georgia arguably did not have an direct bearing on the military situation in Europe, it nevertheless led some of NATO's easternmost members to publicly ask for changes in NATO's military planning and deployments. The palpable desire of these countries to host NATO and/or U.S. installations on their national soil should serve as a healthy reminder of the limits of a "virtual" security presence. At the very least, it suggests that advocating a withdrawal of U.S. nuclear weapons from Europe would be seen by some allies as a security "minus" and risk to further undermine their confidence in existing security arrangements.> 30 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO DA LINK- US DECREASES NUCLEAR WEAPONS Removing nuclear weapons from NATO countries creates "soft" image ---HURTS NATO ALLIANCE Kulesa analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs `09 (Lukask, March 2009, 6/26/10,EL) The gravest danger of any move to eliminate US nuclear weapons from Europe, from the perspective of Central Europe, would be to create the impression that NATO has gone "soft" where its primary function of defending the territories of the member states is concerned. Therefore, such a move would probably need to be counteracted by a set of decisions giving credible reassurance on the value of Article 5. These should include first and foremost the affirmation of the function of the strategic nuclear forces as the supreme guarantee of security of the Allies. Moreover, practical measures can be agreed upon to strengthen the conventional defence potential of the Alliance. Reduction of TNWs causes a decrease in deterrence harms NATO McNamara and Spring, Senior Policy Analyst and F.M. Kirby Research Fellow, 2010 (Sally and Baker, The Heritage Organization, 3/4/10, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/03/president-obama-must-notremove-nuclear-weapons-from-europe, 6/29/10, TW) This week, President Obama reaffirmed his commitment to reducing America's nuclear stockpile, stating that he wants to see transformational change in the U.S. nuclear posture. However, his policy preferences should be only one part of the equation. The position of America's friends and allies, the strategic concept of the NATO alliance, and transatlantic stability should also factor into his decision. Strategically, eliminating the U.S. tactical nuclear arsenal in Europe cripples deterrence, stripping away an important pillar of transatlantic security and placing European force posture at a DAvantage. Calls by Germany and other pacifistic and demilitarized European nations to denuclearize the continent fail to take into account the growing threat of rogue states and the reemergence of old strategic competitors, and it may condemn to history the world's greatest military alliance. 31 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO DA LINK- NUCLEAR POLICY New NATO strategic concept determines nuclear weapon agenda Kulesa analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs `09 (Lukask, March 2009, 6/26/10,EL) NATO COHESION/UNITY DA The nuclear dimension of NATO is rarely front page news, and this is no less the case in Poland than it is in other member states. While prominent as the central subject of a number of heated intra-Alliance debates during the Cold War, in recent years the question of nuclear weapons has disappeared from the NATO agenda, dominated as it is by issues of enlargement, military transformation, and the Alliance's increasing involvement in out-of-area operations. In fact, an overwhelming majority of the citizenry of all NATO countries would be surprised to learn of the existence of any nuclear element in the Alliance, including the citizens of those European allies whose air forces have been training to drop US-made thermonuclear gravity bombs in wartime. The recent re-emergence of interest in the progress of nuclear disarmament, together with the start of discussions on the new NATO Strategic Concept, requires the member states of the Alliance to reflect again on this aspect of NATO's policy. In Polish strategic thinking, there is little space for idealistic support for the quick abolition of nuclear weapons, but also no appetite for nuclear adventurism or muscle-flexing. The usefulness of nuclear weapons is perceived by Poland within the wider context of assuring the viability of the transatlantic link and the credibility of NATO's Article 5 (mutual defence clause). Russia is often mentioned in the context of Article 5 commitments, but it should be stressed that safeguarding the political cohesion of the Alliance and strengthening its conventional military capabilities are currently much more important for Poland's interpretation of Article 5 than is the nuclear factor. Nuclear weapons removal harm cohesion and stability McNamara and Spring, Senior Policy Analyst and F.M. Kirby Research Fellow, 2010 (Sally and Baker, The Heritage Organization, 3/4/10, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/03/president-obama-must-notremove-nuclear-weapons-from-europe, 6/29/10, TW) In April 2009--less than three months into his term of office--President Barack Obama laid out the centerpiece of his foreign policy vision for his Administration: the global eradication of nuclear weapons. Citing America's atomic strikes against the Japanese Empire during World War II, President Obama stated that America has a "moral responsibility" to walk the "road to zero." This ideological positioning has set off a series of calls from European leaders for the removal of America's nuclear arsenal from European soil. At this time, however, a withdrawal of America's nuclear arsenal from Europe would send the message that transatlantic security is no longer indivisible. It would also give Moscow a blank check to pursue its long-sought-after sphere of privileged interest and, ironically, could pave the way for further nuclear proliferation. The destabilization brought to the European continent from a premature removal of American nuclear weapons, or an unacceptable degradation of its force, would be a major setback for global security and stability. Nuke policy about removal increases tension within NATO British American Security Information Council, 2010 (British American Security Information Council, January 2010, http://www.basicint.org/pubs/BASIC-MindtheGapNATOnuclear.pdf, 6/29/10, TW) NATO's nuclear burden-sharing arrangements predate the negotiation and signing of the NPT, and are seen within the Alliance as consistent with the NPT's provisions (specifically Articles I and II). However, this is by some NPT member states outside the Alliance, which perceive them as breaking the spirit, if not the letter, of the Treaty. The arrangements involve the transfer in control of nuclear warheads in times of conflict, possible only if the NPT were deemed by NATO to cease to apply. To actively plan for such an eventuality shows a certain lack of good faith in the regime, and clearly implies that NPT commitments are conditional. Whatever the rights and wrongs, these arrangements are clearly seen by many member states as undermining the regime, a perception that is to some extent self-fulfilling as it creates a source of friction and undermines the willingness of others to invest in strengthened nonproliferation arrangements, thereby directly weakening Alliance security. 32 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO LINK NUCLEAR WEAPON POLICY KEY Nuclear weapon policy key to alliance identity British American Security Information Council, 2010 (British American Security Information Council, January 2010, http://www.basicint.org/pubs/BASIC-MindtheGapNATOnuclear.pdf, 6/29/10, TW) There is a clear and understandable reaction from many within NATO that when considering the Strategic Concept there is already enough challenge around Afghan operations and the debate over the balance between Article V commitments as against NATO operations further afield, without raising difficult issues around nuclear posture. Raising the lid on this nuclear Pandora's box could create deep problems for the Alliance, and permanently weaken its unity, with dangerous consequences for all. But to separate out nuclear posture in this manner fails to see the critical links with those related debates, and stores up continued future problems for NATO security. Differences in assumptions and conflicts of value within NATO underpin all these challenges, in particular centering on differing threat perceptions, conflicting ways to counter those threats, and varying confidence in nuclear and other forms of deterrent. Debates around the identity and future of the Alliance are still intimately connected with its nuclear posture, even if indirectly, and that posture represents a very real and concrete expression of that identity. U.S. unilateral removal of nukes kills NATO credibility- and proves consult Hamilton et al, Director Center for Transatlantic Relations SAIS JHU, 2009 (Daniel, Alliance Reborn: An Atlantic Compact for the 21st Century The Washington NATO Project, February, accessed: June 25, TS) < Nuclear Forces. We support the long-term goal of a world without nuclear weapons. None of our considerations contradict initiatives such as Global Zero. When it comes to practical implementation, however, it is important to keep the following in mind: Historically, the presence of U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe has been a preeminent symbol coupling European and North American security. For this xi reason, a unilateral U.S. decision to withdraw its nuclear weapons could be seen in Europe as a U.S. effort to decouple its security from that of its allies and thus question the very premise of the Atlantic Alliance. If such a step is to be considered, the initiative should come from Europe. If European allies are confident that European and North American security is sufficiently coupled to no longer require the presence of U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe, the U.S. is unlikely to object to their removal. When addressing the question, allies should also consider future requirements and keep in mind that once such forces are withdrawn, it will be all but impossible politically to return them. If reductions or eliminations are considered, allies should seek equivalent steps by Russia.> Debate on nuclear weapons threatens to destroy NATO Thranert, Senior Fellow in the International Security Research Division of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin, 2009 (Oliver, NATO Missile Defence and Extended Deterrence, : http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00396330903461674, date accessed 6/25/10, TS) Given threat perceptions, a full-scale debate about US nuclear withdrawal from Europe could trigger a controversy that would undermine NATO cohesion. Many members could lose confidence in the Alliance's defence commitments in general, and the US commitment to defend Europe in particular. Ending the US nuclear presence in Europe would also end Allies' influence on NATO's nuclear policymaking. Only Washington and London would remain directly involved in NATO nuclear policy (even now that France has become a full NATO member, Paris still does not participate in Nuclear Planning Group meetings). True, the Nuclear Planning Group would continue to work, but it would quickly lose its salience, and NATO members would lose their nuclear competences.> 33 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA AT PRESENCE OF TNWS HURT NATO SECURITY Nuclear extended deterrence good--removal of tnws hurts deterrence and security Ruhle, Head, Speechwriting and Senior Political Adviser in the NATO Secretary General's Policy Planning Unit, 2009 (Michael, NATO and Extended Deterrence in a Multinuclear World, http://www.aicgs.org/documents/advisor/ruehle0209.pdf, accessed: 6/25/10, TS) <The key tenets of this new nuclear debate are simple and straightforward. As the world is reaching a nuclear tipping point, averting the spread of weapons of mass destruction becomes a matter of global survival. Hence, the nuclear weapons states should unequivocally embrace the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. This would allow them to counter charges of pursuing a policy of "double standards," and to regain the credibility that is essential for launching dynamic and comprehensive arms control policies. Irrespective of the likelihood of the total elimination of nuclear weapons, "abolition" needs to become the overarching narrative for making progress in a number of areas, such as concluding new U.S.Russian arms control agreements; strengthening the verification mechanisms of the International Atomic Energy Agency; enhancing the physical security of Russian nuclear weapons; internationalizing uranium enrichment, and many more. In order to generate such a positive momentum, abolitionists argue that the nuclear weapons states should first and foremost visibly reduce their dependence on nuclear weapons. An important part of such a nuclear deemphasis would be the withdrawal of the remaining tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) that are based in various European North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nations in the context of NATO's nuclear sharing arrangements. In the view of the abolitionists, the withdrawal of these "Cold War relics" would send a powerful message that the United States and its NATO allies were giving nonproliferation precedence over outdated nuclear dogmatism. This ties in with the arguments that have long been made by the antinuclear activists among the nongovernmental organization (NGO) community, who maintain that nuclear sharing arrangements are a violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Consequently, their withdrawal would be in line with not only political but also legal requirements, and help set the stage for a positive outcome of the next NPT Review Conference in 2010. Moreover, withdrawing European-based TNW would also remove a potential risk of theft by terrorists, and might put pressure on Russia to remove or reduce her oversized and possibly unsafe TNW arsenal. Finally, as NATO may soon start work on a new strategic concept, the alliance should seize this opportunity to further reduce its nuclear dimension, notably by ending its nuclear sharing arrangements. If the relevance of nuclear weapons in Europe were indeed as marginal as these views suggest, and if, on the other hand, the link between extended deterrence and nonproliferation were as clear-cut as this school of thought maintains, the withdrawal of European-based U.S. nuclear weapons would indeed be wise and should be welcomed. Alas, the issue is far less clear-cut than the abolitionist school tries to portray it. The charge that extended deterrence, as institutionalized in NATO, is counterproductive, as it was highlighting rather than downplaying the nuclear dimensions of security, reveals a fundamental misreading of both alliance dynamics and global security developments.> 34 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO LINK- AFGHANISTAN K TO NATO CREDIBILITY Afghanistan key test of NATO Bacevich, Professor of International Relations and History, 2010 (Andrew, Foreign policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/let_europe_be_europe, April, accessed: 6/25/10, TS) <Afghanistan provides the most important leading indicator of where Washington's attempt to nurture a muscle-flexing new NATO is heading; it is the decisive test of whether the alliance can handle large-scale, out-of-area missions. And after eight years, the results have been disappointing. Complaints about the courage and commitment of NATO soldiers have been few. Complaints about their limited numbers and the inadequacy of their kit have been legion. An immense complicating factor has been the tendency of national governments to impose restrictions on where and how their forces are permitted to operate. The result has been dysfunction. > AFGHANISTAN IS STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE TO NATO Albright, former US Secretary of State and head of Expert Panel for Nato Strategic Concept,2010. (Madeleine, assured security; dynamic engagement, 17 MAY 2010, http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2010_05/20100517_100517_expertsreport.pdf, 6/25/10, CF) <NATO's mission in Afghanistan is the largest ever attempted by the Alliance. Every Ally is contributing to this operation and many have recently increased their participation. NATO countries are also donating generously to the economic and political development of the country. The Alliance is committed to the creation of an Afghanistan that is stable and that does not serve as a platform for international terrorist activity; it should continue working with its partners to achieve this strategically important objective. Looking to the future, the Allied experience in Afghanistan is a rich source of lessons to be learned. Many of the principles that should be featured in the new Strategic Concept are in evidence. These include the requirement for Alliance cohesion, the desirability of unified command, the value of effective planning and public diplomacy, the aptness of a comprehensive civilian/military approach, and the need to deploy forces at a strategic distance for an extended period of time.> Afghanistan key test of NATO Bacevich, Professor of International Relations and History, 2010 (Andrew, Foreign policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/let_europe_be_europe, April, accessed: 6/25/10, TS) <Afghanistan provides the most important leading indicator of where Washington's attempt to nurture a muscle-flexing new NATO is heading; it is the decisive test of whether the alliance can handle large-scale, out-of-area missions. And after eight years, the results have been disappointing. Complaints about the courage and commitment of NATO soldiers have been few. Complaints about their limited numbers and the inadequacy of their kit have been legion. An immense complicating factor has been the tendency of national governments to impose restrictions on where and how their forces are permitted to operate. The result has been dysfunction. > 35 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO DA LINK: AFGHANISTAN NATO watching US policy to signal for more contributions in Afghanistan McNamara is Senior Policy Analyst in European Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom,09 (Sally, Heritage Foundation, 12-3, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/12/nato-allies-in-europe-must-do-more-inafghanistan, 6/29/10, AU) Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will travel to Brussels on December 3 to meet with NATO foreign ministers to discuss Europe's contribution to the new strategy for Afghanistan. A surge of 40,000 troops will give General McChrystal's strategy a greater chance of succeeding with less risk to the deployed troops. Therefore, it is critical that NATO's European members send at least 10,000 additional troops together with critical enablers and other resources that General McChrystal identified by as necessary for victory. With a few honorable exceptions, NATO's European members--especially France, Germany, Italy, and Spain--have underresourced the U.N.-mandated International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan from the start. They have provided too few troops with too many national caveats on their deployments. Furthermore, their support for the civilian component of the comprehensive strategy approved at NATO's Bucharest summit in 2008 has been woeful, despite a stated eagerness to forgo combat missions in favor of aid and development projects. At the Bratislava defense ministers' summit in October, two European NATO members stated that Europe was waiting to see President Obama's direction before deciding whether to provide additional resources for Afghanistan. [5] President Obama's limited resourcing of General McChrystal's counterinsurgency strategy means that additional European contributions will likely be decisive to the war effort. The European commitment to Afghanistan must be increased in several ways if General McChrystal is to have a realistic chance of succeeding. These contributions will need to include additional combat troops, police trainers, embedded training teams, and helicopters. Withdrawal of troops decreases cohesion OF ALLIANCE Eversteijn, researcher at Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, 2010 (Djorn Eversteijn, What Should NATO's New Strategic Concept Look Like?, April 21, 2010, Atlantic- Community.org) The ISAF mission in Afghanistan is illustrative for the absence of a shared level of commitment among the organisation's member states - whether caused by national caveats or by political decisions regarding the contribution or withdrawal of a nation's armed forces - which undermines the internal cohesion of the Alliance and is damaging to the operational efforts on the ground. What is to be done to bridge the organisation's member states commitment gap? Should the organisation adjust and transform its consensus-based decision-making process and formally convert into a multitier organisation? Regarding the "new" challenges, the Strategic Concept ought to provide an answer to the question of whether NATO should have a role to play in the above-mentioned set of challenges, and if yes, what an adequate response in the respective realms would encompass? 36 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO DA LINK : AFGHANISTAN Afghanistan key test to NATO cohesion- even if NATO survives Berdal and Ucko, Professor of Security and Development in the Department of War Studies at King's College London and Transatlantic Research Fellow at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), 2009 (Mats and David, NATO at 60, International institute for strategic studies, Accessed: 6/25/10, TS) <The view that NATO's involvement in Afghanistan presents the Alliance with a make-or-break moment is, unsurprisingly, not publicly embraced by NATO governments or Alliance officials. And it is certainly true that the Alliance has a history of institutional survival, notable for the ability of Allies to live with intramural tensions. It may fairly be assumed that its involvement in Afghanistan, whatever the outcome, will not result in its liquidation. But NATO's Afghanistan mission has brought home the strains between the ambitious political aspirations that the Alliance has long proclaimed and the kinds of military missions that its members are capable and prepared to undertake. Put more bluntly, NATO's experiences in mounting and sustaining operations in Afghanistan have provided a reality check, pointing not only to the possibilities but also the limitations of NATO's contribution to international peace and security outside the Euro-Atlantic area. The latter include familiar difficulties relating to burden-sharing, the absence of political consultations among Allies, generation of forces and maintenance of defence expenditure to match new ambitions. At a deeper level, they include questions about the unity of political purpose and the clarity of strategic direction required to sustain global engagement in an environment bereft of the certainties that kept the Alliance together for much of its history.> Failure in Afghanistan will hurt cohesion The Guardian June 30, 2010 (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jun/30/liam-fox-afghanistan-foreign-policy, SP) A failure in Afghanistan would damage the credibility of Nato. "The first objective of armed conflict is to win it. To leave before the job is finished would leave us less safe and less secure. "Our resolve would be called into question, our cohesion weakened and the alliance undermined. It would be a betrayal of all the sacrifices made by our armed forces in life and limb." 37 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO DA LINK BURDEN SHARING NATO burden sharing in Afghanistan necessary Sloan Visiting Scholar at Middlebury College `10 (Stanley, UNISCI Discussion papers, January 2010, proquest, 6/25/10, EL) NATO COHESION/UNITY DA Perhaps the greatest danger to success in Afghanistan and to the future utility of NATO is the development of a multi-tiered alliance, in which some countries assume much greater risks than others on behalf of a shared mission. In the relationship between the United States and the European allies, this concern takes the form of the traditional burden-sharing issue, in which the United States appears to carry most of the weight and becomes resentful of the lessrobust European contributions. With the Obama Administration's shift in US priorities and resources from Iraq to Afghanistan, the gap between the North American and European contributions has grown, and the grounds for a new burden-sharing debate have expanded as well. Burden sharing key to NATO cohesion Ischinger and Weisser, New York Times staff writers, 2010 (Wolfgang and Ulrich, The New York Times, June, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/10/opinion/10iht-edischinger.html? pagewanted=print, TS) <At a NATO summit in Strasbourg in April 2009, a group of experts headed by Madeleine Albright was directed to prepare the ground for a new "strategic concept." The group's report, presented recently, correctly stresses that conditions for our common security have fundamentally changed since the last strategic concept was issued in 1999. Key developments have to be taken into account -- 9/11, the weakened nuclear nonproliferation regime, piracy, energy risks and other security issues. Above all, there is the need to establish a strategic relationship with Russia. The report underlines the value of some guiding principles -- such as NATO's central role to safeguard freedom and security for all its members; the fact that an attack on one is an attack on all; the need to maintain a strong trans-Atlantic link; and the common understanding that equitable sharing of risks and responsibilities is an important prerequisite for alliance cohesion. > 38 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA ***SPECIFIC INTERNAL LINKS--OTHER INTERNAL LINKS EMBEDDED IN LINK OR IMPACT EVE**** 39 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO DA COHESION- US KEY INTERNAL LINK US is key to NATO- strong NATO solves security McNamara, Senior policy analyst in European Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, 2009(Sally, NATO 60th Anniversary Summti: An Agenda for American Leadership, March 25, 2009, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/03-60thanniversary-summit-an-agenda-for-american-leadership) The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is one of the world's most successful multilateral alliances and a vital component of the global security architecture. It is important that President Obama assert the need for strong American leadership within the transatlantic alliance when he attends NATO's 60th anniversary summit on April 3 and 4 in Strasbourg, France, and Kehl, Germany. President Obama's agenda will be crowded with high-profile and complex issues, such as the war in Afghanistan, NATO-EU relations, and negotiations to formulate a new Strategic Concept for the alliance. He will also be faced with ongoing challenges such as NATO enlargement and appointment of a new Secretary General. The summit will take place during President Obama's first European trip as President, and less than 100 days into his Administration; however, its imprint will likely shape the transatlantic relationship for the remainder of his term. This early test for the transatlantic security alliance will be a critical time for the U.S. and its European allies to work together to address common threats. Low NATO credibility requires US commitment Lugar Senator and republican leader of the Foreign Relations Committee `10 (Richard, 1/1/10, proquest, 6/25/10, EL) I thank the Chairman for this opportunity to continue our examination of the future of the NATO Alliance. I join in welcoming Secretary Albright and our other distinguished witnesses. For decades, discussions of NATO frequently have begun with the premise that the Alliance is at a crossroads or even in crisis. When evaluating NATO, I start from the presumption that after 60 years, it is still a work in progress. If one takes this long term view, current alliance deficiencies though serious -- do not seem insurmountable. It is important to take stock of just how remarkable it is that NATO has enlarged from 12 to 28 countries and is now involved in combat three thousand miles from Europe. NATO possesses enormous geopolitical assets and a history of achievement that, with the proper leadership, can undergird success in the future. The paramount question facing NATO today is how to strengthen the credibility of Article Five. Recent developments have eroded some of NATO's deterrence value. This erosion has occurred as Members of the Alliance have expressed less enthusiasm for NATO expansion and found an increasing number of reasons to avoid committing forces to Afghanistan. The decline in the deterrent value of Article Five became more apparent with the onset of a string of energy crises in Europe and the adoption by several West European governments of "beggar-thy-neighbor" policies with respect to oil and natural gas arrangements with the Russian Federation. The Obama Administration's decision to alter missile defense plans also has implications for Alliance confidence in Article Five. Iranian missiles never constituted the primary rationale for Polish and Czech decisions to buy into the Bush Administration's plan. Rather, it was the waning confidence in NATO, and Article Five in particular, that lent missile defense political credibility in those countries. The United States must be sensitive to events that have transpired in the broader European security environment since the Bush plan was proposed and negotiated. Our commitment to NATO remains the most important vehicle for projecting stability throughout Europe and even into regions of Asia and the Middle East. It is critical that we reestablish the credibility of these assurances. An invigoration of NATO military exercises in Eastern Europe and joint planning for contingencies would be a first step. The Administration also must raise the profile of U.S. political and economic cooperation with Eastern Europe, and intensify military contacts with selected countries. NATO capability tied to U.S. commitment Brzezinski, U.S. National Security Adviser from 1977 to 1981, 2009 (Zbigniew, Military & Government Collection, October, Accessed: 6/24/10, TS) <AND YET, it is fair to ask: Is NATO living up to its extraordinary potential? NATO today is without a doubt the most powerful military and political alliance in the world. Its 28 members come from the globe's two most productive, technologically advanced, socially modern, economically prosperous, and politically democratic regions. Its member states' 900 million people account for only 13 percent of the world's population but 45 percent of global GDP. NATO's potential is not primarily military. Although NATO is a collective-security alliance, its actual military power comes predominantly from the United States, and that reality is not likely to change anytime soon. NATO's real power derives from the fact that it combines the United States' military capabilities and economic power with Europe's collective political and economic weight (and occasionally some limited European military forces). 40 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA Together, that combination makes NATO globally significant. It must therefore remain sensitive to the importance of safeguarding the geopolitical bond between the United States and Europe as it addresses new tasks.> 41 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO DA LINK- BURDEN SHARING Burden sharing key to NATO operations Brezezinski Center for strategic and international studies counselor and trustee `09 (Zbigniew, Foreign Affairs, sep/oct 09, proquest, 6/25/10, EL) NATO COHESION/UNITY DA THE DISPERSAL of global power and the expanding mass political unrest make for a combustible mixture. In this dangerous setting, the first order of business for NATO members is to define together, and then to pursue together, a politically acceptable outcome to its out-ofregion military engagement in Afghanistan. The United States' nato allies invoked Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty in deciding to join the campaign to deprive al Qaeda of its safe haven in Afghanistan. The alliance made that commitment on its own and not under U.S. pressure. It must accordingly be pursued on a genuinely shared military and economic basis, without caveats regarding military participation or evasions regarding badly needed financial assistance for Afghanistan and Pakistan. The commitment of troops and money cannot be overwhelmingly a U.S. responsibility. To be sure, that is easier said than done, but it should be the central political duty of NATO's new secretary-general to keep insisting on both military and financial support. The basic operating principle has to be that every ally contributes to the extent that it can and that no ally is altogether passive. The actual (not just pledged) contribution of each ally to the needed military, social, and financial effort should be regularly publicized and jointly reviewed. Otherwise, Article 5 will progressively lose its meaning. 42 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO DA INTERNAL LINK --TURKEY ISOLATION OF TURKEY KEY TO NATO ALLIANCE NATO COHESION/UNITY DA Goldgeier, Award-winning author, former State Department official, and staff member of the National Security Council. Professor of political science and international politics at George Washington University, 2010. (James, The Future of NATO, Council on Foreign Relations, February 2010, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/NATO_CSR51.pdf , 6/24/10, CF) <Although the Lisbon Treaty is an important step forward for the EU, a major obstacle to NATO-EU collaboration is the ongoing NATO and the EU dispute between Turkey and Cyprus. Cyprus vetoed the EU commitment to end the trade blockade on Northern Cyprus; in return, Turkey reneged on its promise to open its ports to Cypriot shipping. Cyprus has blocked Turkey's participation in the EU defense agency, and Turkey will not let Cyprus work with NATO. Although workinglevel contacts between the two institutions are significant (e.g., there is an EU staff cell at Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe [SHAPE], NATO's military headquarters), high-level interaction is minimal, and therefore so is any serious collaboration in areas such as conflict prevention and crisis management. With the Lisbon Treaty, the EU will no longer continue to suffer as much in foreign policy from its six-month rotating presidency that left it ill-equipped to lay out strategic priorities. But the decision not to appoint visible and charismatic personalities to the positions of European president and foreign minister demonstrated that the major European countries still need to assert the leadership necessary to break the current institutional impasse between the EU and NATO. Much U.S. concern about the large states in Europe has focused on their limited military role in Afghanistan. While it would be helpful for countries such as Germany and Italy to develop greater counterinsurgency capacity, they are unlikely to do so. It is better that they devote their energies to creating opportunities for more significant NATO-EU cooperation. Turkey, for example, wants greater access to the European Defense Agency and the CSDP before it will support greater institutional collaboration. The major European powers must find a way to make this happen. The United States, meanwhile, will have to take the lead role in reassuring Turkey that in exchange for its support for NATO operations, Ankara will not find itself isolated within the alliance.> 43 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO DA: INTERNAL LINK- COHESION KEY TO NATO NATO cohesion solves for survival of NATO. Benitez, Director of NATOSource, 2010(Jorge, NATO's Center of Gravity: Political Will, May 27, 2010, Atlantic- Community.org) NATO must launch a major public diplomacy effort in order to reach out in a concerted effort to the Alliance's members' constituencies. More solidarity among NATO members is needed for the Alliance to muster the political will necessary to overcome the external and internal threats to its success in Afghanistan. The issue is crucial to the Alliance's survival. 44 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor ***NATO GOOD*** NATO COHESION/UNITY DA 45 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO GOOD LAUNDRY LIST NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO Cohesion necessary to Solvency multiple issues failed states, human rights, war Albright, former US Secretary of State and head of Expert Panel for Nato Strategic Concept,2010. (Madeleine, assured security; dynamic engagement, 17 MAY 2010, http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2010_05/20100517_100517_expertsreport.pdf, 6/25/10, CF) <Because of its visibility and power, NATO may well be called upon to respond to challenges that do not directly affect its security but that still matter to its citizens and that will contribute to the Alliance's international standing. These challenges could include the humanitarian consequences of a failed state, the devastation caused by a natural disaster, or the dangers posed by genocide or other massive violations of human rights. Less predictable is the possibility that research breakthroughs will transform the technological battlefield. Allies and partners should be alert for potentially disruptive developments in such dynamic areas as information and communications technology, cognitive and biological sciences, robotics, and nanotechnology. The most destructive periods of history tend to be those when the means of aggression have gained the upper hand in the art of waging war.> NATO Key to stop multiple threats Albright, former US Secretary of State and head of Expert Panel for Nato Strategic Concept,2010. (Madeleine, assured security; dynamic engagement, 17 MAY 2010, http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2010_05/20100517_100517_expertsreport.pdf, 6/25/10, CF) <Provided NATO stays vigilant, the prospect of direct military attack across the borders of the Alliance is slight, at least for the foreseeable future. We have learned, however, that in our era less conventional threats to the Alliance could arise from afar and still affect security at home. These dangers include attacks involving weapons of mass destruction, terrorist strikes, and efforts to harm society through cyber assaults or the unlawful disruption of critical supply lines. To guard against these threats, which may or may not reach the level of an Article 5 attack, NATO must update its approach to the defence of Alliance territory while also enhancing its ability to prevail in military operations and broader security missions beyond its borders.> NATO hard power key to solve many threats Goldgeier, Professor of political science and international politics at George Washington University, 2010. (James, The Future of NATO, Council on Foreign Relations, February 2010, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/NATO_CSR51.pdf , 6/24/10, CF) <One option for the alliance is to develop not just military but nonmilitary capacities to deal with future contingencies. It would be preferableto work with organizations such as the European Union that have both the resources and experience to complement NATO's military role. NATO can focus on ensuring that it has the hard power necessary to deal with various threats, ranging from states developing missile and WMD capabilities to terrorists and pirates, while working closely with other institutions and even nongovernmental organizations and private corporations to resolve the nonmilitary threats facing alliance members. U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton has spoken of the need to move toward a "multipartner world."5 Perhaps nowhere is that more true than for NATO.On military matters, NATO can take the lead role, as it did in Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan, even if it eventually turns to organizations such as the EU to take over once a situation is stabilized, as was the case in the Balkans. On issues such as cyber- and energy security, the EU would ideally take the lead role, while NATO could assist with logistical support and personnel as needed to resolve problems. Given the significant overlap in membership between the two organizations, this coordination should not be difficult, but it is. Achieving the necessary cooperation will take greater willingness by the United States to develop its own relationship with the European Union, and it will take concerted effort on the part of EU members to work more closely with NATO.> 46 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO: GOOD- SOLVES AFGHANISTAN NATO must continue working in Afghanistan- solves conflict. NATO COHESION/UNITY DA McNamara, Senior policy analyst in European Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, 2009 (Sally, NATO 60th Anniversary Summti: An Agenda for American Leadership, March 25, 2009, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/03-60th-anniversary-summit-an-agenda-for-american-leadership) With dozens of attempted and successful al-Qaeda and other Islamist terrorist attacks, Britain and Europe must ensure that Afghanistan does not once again become a safe haven for terrorists. The invocation of NATO's Article 5-that an attack on one member constitutes an attack on all members- on September 12, 2001, placed obligations on the entire alliance to confront the asymmetric challenge of Islamist terrorism wherever it may lie. Europe should consider Afghanistan no more a mission of choice than should America. If NATO withdraws from Afghanistan without having first ensured legitimate and effective governance, the Taliban will re-emerge and recreate pre-9/11 conditions, including safe harbor for terrorists intent on harming U.S. and European interests. In the absence of a non-Islamist state, the Taliban will have outlasted NATO, leaving the allies perpetually weakened and vulnerable to a whole range of Islamist extremists. The Comprehensive Political-Military Strategic Plan for Afghanistan agreed at the Bucharest summit in 2008 presented a major opportunity for the transatlantic alliance and the international community to demonstrate their commitment to the stability of Afghanistan and the security of its people. However, most European countries did not support the Bucharest plan with enough troops or financing. Not only have national caveats continued to hamper the military mission, but European commitments to train Afghanistan's police force have failed so far as well. Now is time for NATO to defeat Al- Qaeda. McNamara, 2010. (Sally, Why NATO Must Win in Afghanistan: A Central Front in the War on Terrorism, The Heritage Foundation, June 23, 2008 http://s3.amazonaws.com/thf_media/2008/pdf/bg2148.pdf, 6/25/10, CF) <Although al-Qaeda took some heavy hits to its command and control structures when NATO first went into Afghanistan, it continues to motivate affiliated groups and to regroup in the tribal areas of Pakistan. As Times correspondent Sean O'Neill has noted, "al-Qaeda has proved itself to be a resilient organization that absorbs blows, regroups, reforms its networks, and returns."The war in Afghanistan is ultimately not yet won, and gains made there remain under threat so long as the region remains susceptible to al-Qaeda and Taliban insurgencies. Now is the time for the NATO Alliance to show its backbone and defeat the scourge of al-Qaeda.> 47 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO GOOD NATO NUCLEAR WEAPONS= GOOD NATO nuclear weapons used as deterrence of others Staff writer, Baltic News Service, 2010 ("NATO needs nuclear", Baltic News Service, April 22, lexis, 6-23-10, RH) NATO needs nuclear weapon, as it is part of deterrence to be taken seriously, the alliance's Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told Estonia's public television in an interview ahead of the NATO ministerial meeting Tallinn.Rasmussen said that as long as there are nuclear weapons in the world and there are pariah states that try to acquire such weapons, NATO needs nuclear weapons."If we look at today's world, then there is no alternative to nuclear arms in NATO's deterrent capability. My personal opinion is that the stationing of US nuclear weapons in Europe is part of deterrence to be taken seriously," said Rasmussen. 48 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO GOOD- SOLVES TERRORISM NATO TERROR FIGHTING SUCCESSFUL NATO COHESION/UNITY DA Albright, former US Secretary of State and head of Expert Panel for Nato Strategic Concept,2010. (Madeleine, assured security; dynamic engagement, 17 MAY 2010, http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2010_05/20100517_100517_expertsreport.pdf, 6/25/10, CF) Strengthening NATO's role in fighting terrorism. NATO's military forces are playing a vital role in the fight against violent extremism in Afghanistan. Within the treaty area, however, counter-terrorism is primarily the responsibility of police and other domestic agencies. Nonetheless, the Alliance can play a supporting part through the protection of vital military facilities, sharing intelligence, and providing assistance, when asked, in consequence management. It is worth recalling, for example, that NATO aircraft flew AWACS patrols over the United States for seven months following the 9/11 attacks. In 2004, the Alliance established a Defence Against Terrorism Programme that was designed to develop new technologies to protect troops and civilians against such dangers as improvised explosive devices, suicide bombs and anti-aircraft rocket strikes. 49 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO GOOD TERRORISM NATO key to stop re-eemergence of terror NATO COHESION/UNITY DA Albright, former US Secretary of State and head of Expert Panel for Nato Strategic Concept,2010. (Madeleine, assured security; dynamic engagement, 17 MAY 2010, http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2010_05/20100517_100517_expertsreport.pdf, 6/25/10, CF) <If NATO did not exist today, Afghanistan might once again be ruled by the Taliban, providing a safe haven for al-Qa'ida, allowing terrorists to train and to plan their attacks systematically and without fear. Euro-Atlantic states would lack an effective community forum for responding to traditional threats and emerging perils. Without NATO in the future, the prospects for international stability and peace would be far more uncertain than they are. The Alliance is not alone in its commitment to these objectives, but its combination of military capability and political solidarity make it both singularly valuable and irreplaceable. NATO thrives as a source of hope because, from the very beginning, its members have described their common agenda in a positive fashion: to enhance international security, safeguard liberty, and promote the rule of law. These objectives are neither tied to any calendar nor diminished by any advance in technology. They do not depend on any particular adversary. They are enduring needs and will survive as long as NATO has the courage to defend them through the unity of its members, the bravery of its citizens, and the free expression of its collective will>. 50 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO GOOD IMPACT EUROPEAN STABILITY NATO Key to economy, European cooperation, and stability Goldgeier, Award-winning author, former State Department official, and staff member of the National Security Council. Professor of political science and international politics at George Washington University, 2010. (James, The Future of NATO, Council on Foreign Relations, February 2010, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/NATO_CSR51.pdf , 6/24/10, CF) <The NATO allies share a common interest in preventing disruptions to the global economy, including attacks on freedom of navigation. As a community of democracies, the member states are threatened by forces such as Islamic extremism and the rise of authoritarian states. For the United States, the alliance is a source of legitimacy for actions in places like Afghanistan. For Europe, NATO is a vehicle for projecting hard power. While NATO alone cannot defend against the range of threats facing the member states, it can serve as the hub for American and European leaders to develop the ties with other institutions and non-European countries necessary to provide for the common defense. For all its faults, NATO enables the United States to partner with close democratic allies in ways that would be difficult without a formal institution that provides a headquarters and ready venue for decision-making, as well as legitimacy and support for action that ad hoc U.S.-led coalitions do not.> 51 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO GOOD--MULTIPLE THREATS NATO key to solve multiple threats NATO COHESION/UNITY DA Pessin VOA Pentagon corresPondent `10 (Al, 6/11/10,http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/europe/NATO-Seeks-to-Redefine-Role-Again-96185914.html, 6/23/10, EL) When the West saw the Soviet Union as a threat to its way of life, NATO had a natural role in balancing that threat. But when the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union dissolved in 1989, the western alliance's main reason for being disappeared. It quickly became an organization dedicated to solidifying the end of Russian domination of Central and Eastern Europe. It has admitted 13 former Soviet allies over the years, and has plans to admit several more. NATO found new missions, sending troops to the Balkans in the 1990s, and to Afghanistan a decade later. But that did not help it prove its continuing relevance to skeptical West European populations. "Relevant or relic might be a question if NATO was still camped in Europe waiting to defend the borders. But we're anything but that," said U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis, the top NATO military officer. He told a gathering in Washington recently the alliance is doing important things to ensure its security from conventional threats and from new ones like terrorism, piracy and cyber attacks. He says its troops are ensuring stability in Kosovo, working to defend Europe against missile attacks and fighting every day to ensure Afghanistan never again becomes a safe haven for terrorists. 52 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO GOOD- BIOTERROR Without NATO, Bioterror will strike Europe and America Hamilton et al, Director Center for Transatlantic Relations SAIS JHU, 2009 (Daniel, Alliance Reborn: An Atlantic Compact for the 21st Century The Washington NATO Project, February, accessed: June 25, TS) <If Europeans and Americans are to be safer, individual national efforts must be aligned with more effective transatlantic cooperation. There have been some promising beginnings, but they have been ad hoc, low-priority achievements rather than integrated elements of a comprehensive approach. Biosecurity is perhaps the most dramatic example of the changing challenges we face. Bioterrorism is a first-order strategic threat to the transatlantic community, and yet neither our health nor our security systems are prepared for intentional attacks of infectious disease. Homeland security approaches that focus on guards, gates and guns have little relevance to this type of challenge. A bioterrorist attack in Europe or North America is more likely and could be as consequential as a nuclear attack, but requires a different set of national and international responses. Unless we forge new health security alliances and take other measures, an attack of mass lethality is not a matter of whether, but when. A great challenge of our century is to prevent the deliberate use of disease as a weapon from killing millions, destabilizing economies and disrupting societies. The grand security opportunity of our century is to eliminate massively lethal epidemics of infectious disease by ensuring that biodefense humankind's ageless struggle to prevent and defeat disease is far more potent than attempts to create and deploy bio agents of mass lethality.10 This example underscores the need for the United States, Canada and European partners to advance a multidimensional strategy of societal resilience that goes beyond "homeland" security and relies not just on traditional tools but also on new forms of 10 diplomatic, intelligence, counterterrorism, financial, economic and law enforcement cooperation; customs, air and seaport security; equivalent standards for data protection and information exchange; biodefense and critical infrastructure protection. It needs to begin with the transatlantic community, not only because European societies are so inextricably intertwined, but because no two continents are as deeply connected as the two sides of the North Atlantic. Our ultimate goal should be a resilient Euro-Atlantic area of freedom, security and justice that balances mobility and civil liberties with societal security.11 > 53 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO GOOD- COOPERATION NATO creates benefits and cooperation between countries Brunnstrom and Trevelyan journalist `10 (David and Mark, 2/7/10, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6160GW20100207, 6/42/10,EL) The four countries all had interests in stability in Afghanistan and could do more to help develop and assist the country, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said. "What would be the harm if countries such as China, India, Pakistan and others were to develop closer ties with NATO? I think, in fact, there would only be a benefit, in terms of trust, confidence and cooperation," he said. NATO should become the global forum with other nations on a host of security issues extending from terrorism, cyber attacks, nuclear proliferation, piracy, climate change and competition for natural resources as well as Afghanistan, he said. "NATO can be the place where views, concerns and best practices on security are shared by NATO's global partners. And where ... we might work out how to tackle global challenges together," he told a conference in Munich ahead of discussion of a new NATO Strategic Concept due to be approved in November. Rasmussen said NATO was already working with Pakistan, and other countries stood to gain from a stable Afghanistan. "India has a stake in Afghan stability. China too. And both could help further develop and rebuild Afghanistan. The same goes for Russia," he said. 54 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO GOOD- DEMOCRACY NATO Key to Upholding Democracy Bardaji and Coma, Leaders of the Strategic Studies Group 10 (NATO 3.0, Ready for a New World, February, http://www.acus.org/files/NATO3.0.pdf, 6/29/10, AU) <On the other hand, powers dissatisfied with the present distribution of power aspire to modify the international order, which they denounce as dominated by Westerners and in which the deck is staked in favor of the West. The case of Russia is clear, looking for political and strategic recognition as a superpower; it is also the case of China, due to its dimensions and spectacular economic takeoff at least for now; and, to a lesser extent, it is also the case of countries with regional impact, such as Venezuela. Finally, there are countries and nonstate actors appealing to revolution; they do not look forward to modifying the international system. They seek to destroy it and to replace it with a completely different version. It is the extreme cases of the Ayatollahs' Iran and alQaeda's brand of terrorism global jihad. Certainly, these forces, that frontally resist or oppose the present world system, have little or nothing to do with each other, but combined they can come to represent a serious threat to democracies and the values that sustain them. For that reason, it is not trivial if NATO pays attention to the rise of authoritarianism and radicalism. The Alliance should furnish the means necessary to strengthen the democratic realm which it is ultimately called to defend. It is necessary to keep the Freedom Agenda alive as a strategic imperative> 55 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO PROLIF IMPACT NATO COHESION/UNITY DA A radical change in NATO which would increase proliferation Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow Paris Fondation pour la Recherche Stratgique, 2007 (Bruno, http://www.ndc.nato.int/download/publications/op_21.pdf, May 2007 "NATO and the Future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty," NATO Defense College, NDC Occassional Paper 21, SP) Critics have also pointed out that NATO's continued reliance on the option of nuclear first use runs contrary to the principle of "a diminishing role for nuclear weapons in security policies" included in the 2000 NPT Review Conference Document. However, NATO points out that the circumstances where the Allies may consider the use of nuclear weapons are now "extremely remote". It is hard to imagine how the place of nuclear weapons in NATO strategy could be further reduced without fundamentally altering its very nature. In addition, it should be noted that radical steps such as the abandonment of the nuclear protection given by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France might in fact increase the risk of nuclear proliferation within the Alliance, thus defeating the very purpose of the NPT. It should also be noted that a stated doctrine of "no-first-use" might increase the risk of chemical or biological weapons use by an adversary, and perhaps even the risk of aggression itself; this would run counter to the principle of "undiminished security for all" affirmed by Step 9 of the 2000 document. 56 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO GOOD ETHNIC CONFLICT NATO Cohesion critical to effective, multilateral response to civil wars and ethnic conflicts Ellsworth, US Ambassador on Council of NATO, 2003 (Robert F., "NATO's Future", http://www.eisenhowerinstitute.org/themes/past_themes/nato/perspectives/Ellsworth.dot, SP) NATO COHESION/UNITY DA In peace operations, NATO cohesion is still important, but the issue of the Europeans' willingness to deploy political, financial, and military muscle rises to a higher level. There are civil wars and human disasters and atrocities in several parts of the world-Central America Sudan, Congo (the locus of Africa's "first world war"), and Afghanistan. Those wars and disasters, or others like them, will be with us for a long time to come. NATO could begin to reorient itself to deal with such matters, but that reorientation should not be at the expense of the Alliance's guardian political-military posture. With the British planned acquisition of the C-17, the Europeans are taking the necessary first steps toward an ability (already operational in the U.S. Air Force) to land strategic loads around the globe-and to land them on tactical strips. The United States also deploys sophisticated airfield control detachments that can anchor a strategic deployment at remote sites. Unchecked ethnic conflicts cause global nuclear war Crocker, Chairman of the Board of the US Institute of Peace, 1999 (Chester, FPRI Wire, http://fpri.org/fpriwire/0710.199909.crocker.howtothinkaboutethnicconflict.html "How To Think About Ethnic Conflict", September, SP) The examination of ethnic conflict has several implications for American foreign policy. First, it might be useful if we would think about the phenomenon we are dealing with-which is nothing less than the breakdown of empires, federations, and nation-states-before we act. We must think about how, in the present era, the breakdown of the old colonial and Cold War structures empowered challengers to governments. Whether their challenges come through information technology, the erection of new standards of governance, or new demands from donor clubs, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, a fundamental shift in the balance of power on the ground has occurred. The disappearance of the old structures has, in short, created strategic vacuums that will be filled, in one fashion or another, by a new set of actors or by older actors marching under new flags. That is really what much ethnic conflict is all about. Secondly, we need to reflect on the stakes. As a superpower which supposedly "doesn't do windows," we may be tempted to think that the stakes are low for the United States. But what is at stake in Kosovo is not just the Albanians or Serbs, but (now that we have backed into this forest without a compass) what is at stake is American leadership, the survival of NATO, and the danger that members of the U.N. Security Council, including Russia and China, will acquire something of a veto over American policy-including how we get out of the woods we have wandered into. Think, too, about the stakes involved for the people who become victims of these conflicts. Waiting for a conflict to "ripen" will achieve nothing if the contesting leadership elites are living off the conflict. When both sides in a conflict find the status quo preferable to any settlement, the situation will never "ripen" and the humanitarian toll will mount. And the numbers of victims of these conflicts is huge: up to four million in Sudan alone over the past forty years, and countless thousands in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Indonesia, and the Balkans. Similar conflicts have raged in the South Asian subcontinent since the massive postcolonial population transfers of the late 1940s, and now that nuclear weapons have been openly thrown into the mix, the Indo-Pakistani worst-case scenario has gotten a lot worse. So the stakes are huge in moral as well as strategic terms. 57 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO GOOD/BAD US HEG IMPACT NATO COHESION/UNITY DA Collapse of NATO cohesion kills U.S. hegemony Binnendijk and Kugler, Theodore Roosevelt Chair in National Security Policy and Direction of the Center for Technology and National Security Policy and Distinguished Research Professor at the Center for Technology and National Security Policy with specialty in U.S. defense strategy, 2004 (Hans and Richard, "The Next Phase of Transformation: A New Dual-Track Strategy for NATO" from Transatlantic Transformations, SP) The damaging effects of NATO collapse would extend far beyond the war on terrorism into the strategic realm of traditional security affairs. For the United States, loss of NATO would be a more serious setback than advocates of unilateralism realize. At a minimum, the United States would lose influence over Europe's evolution and would face even greater anti-Americanism. In other regions, the United States might not have its wings clipped to the degree envisioned by some Europeans--a global superpower has many other friends--but it would suffer from the loss of political legitimacy that European and NATO support often gives to its endeavors in the Middle East and elsewhere. Although France, Germany, and a few others criticized the U.S. and British invasion of Iraq, fully 75 per cent of current and prospective NATO members gave vocal political support to it. Such strong support would be less likely in a world without NATO. Militarily, the United States would lose valuable infrastructure in Europe that is helpful in projecting power to distant regions. The United States also would be damaged in crises and wars that require allied force contributions. In theory, the United States could still draw upon friendly European countries to create ad hoc coalitions of the willing. But if NATO no longer exists, few countries may be willing to join U.S.-led coalitions. Also important, their military forces might be less able to work closely with U.S. forces because NATO no longer would provide them the necessary interoperability. 58 MGW '10 Smith/McFarland/Pryor NATO COHESION/UNITY DA NATO GOOD RUSSIAN AGGRESSION IMPACT U.S. commitment to NATO is necessary to deter Russian aggression and Central European conflict Ball, British International Studies Association, 1998 (Christopher L., "Nattering NATO negativism? Reasons why expansion may be a good thing," Review of International Studies, http://journals.cambridge.org/article_S0260210598000436, SP) If Russia is potentially hostile, other scholars call for expansion only if Russia actually behaves aggressively. In essence, they call for a tit-for-tat strategy of cooperating by not expanding NATO now, but expanding it later if Russia proves aggressive.18 The trouble with this strategy is that the barnyard door is closed after the horses have left. Once Russia has became clearly aggressive, it may be too late to deter it. First, Russia might already have formed a paper-tiger image of the West, and not believe that any new commitments are credible.19 Second, psychological theories provide some evidence that earlier deterrent commitments are more likely to be heeded than threats made after a challenger is committed to use force.20 After leaders decide to challenge, they may have a motivated error to discount the credibility of deterrent threats. A NATO commitment might fail if Russia were already committed to advance. Third, trying to develop an effective defence plan to deter Russia might prove difficult over a short period. The necessary weapons interoperability, doctrines, and training might be so disparate that fast and effective cooperation would be impossible. While the Partnership for Peace programme would help alleviate this problem, it is not a substitute for the coordination that would occur under NATO. The West might be forced to rapidly deploy large units in Central Europe during a crisis. But placing large NATO forces in these countries during a crisis might trigger a war, not deter one. Of course, expansion opponents could point out that deterrence may be dangerous where domestic political instability or strategic vulnerability lead to motivated and cognitive distortions.21 Instead of dissuading a potential challenger, they may magnify the incentives to challenge. In this case, the expansion of NATO will prompt Russian challenges. But it is unlikely that deterrence attempts after the challenge would be any more effective. Expanding NATO later would only exacerbate any crisis. To argue that NATO can expand later is only compelling as a political cover for abandoning Central Europe if Russia becomes aggressively revisionist. Impact: Russian--U.S. conflict results in nuclear war Bostrum, Prof Oxford, 2002(Nick, March, 2002 www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html, SP) A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in the US and the USSR. An all-out nuclear war was a possibility with both a substantial probability and with consequences that might have been persistent enough to qualify as global and terminal. There was a real worry among those best acquainted with the information available at the time that a nuclear Armageddon would occur and that it might annihilate our species or permanently destroy human civilization. Russia and the US retain large nuclear arsenals that could be used in a future confrontation, either accidentally or deliberately. There is also a risk that other states may one day build up large nuclear arsenals. Note however that a smaller nuclear exchange, between India and Pakistan for instance, is not an existential risk, since it would not destroy or thwart humankind's potential permanently. 59 ...
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