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MGW10-MS-Prolif-Unique-and-Links

MGW10-MS-Prolif-Unique-and-Links - MGW 2010 McFarland/Smith...

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MGW 2010 Proliferation UQ & Links McFarland/Smith Lab Proliferation – uniqueness and links Proliferation – uniqueness and links .......................................................................................................................... 1 ***UQ – prolif now*** ............................................................................................................................................. 2 Prolif now – US policy .............................................................................................................................................. 3 Prolif now – globally ................................................................................................................................................. 4 Prolif now – Iran ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 Prolif inevitable – security concerns .......................................................................................................................... 6 Prolif inevitable – multi-warrant ............................................................................................................................... 7 ***UQ – US action*** ............................................................................................................................................. 8 US committed – NPT ................................................................................................................................................ 9 US committed – obama .......................................................................................................................................... 10 US not credible – obama ....................................................................................................................................... 11 US not credible – no signal ..................................................................................................................................... 12 US credibility high .................................................................................................................................................. 13 US credibility can increase ...................................................................................................................................... 14 US acting now ......................................................................................................................................................... 15 NPT credibility low ................................................................................................................................................. 16 NPT credibility high (1) .......................................................................................................................................... 17 NPT credibility high (2) .......................................................................................................................................... 18 ***Links*** ........................................................................................................................................................... 19 Arms reduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 20 Nuclear presence .................................................................................................................................................... 21 Iraq withdrawal ...................................................................................................................................................... 22 Decreased nukes ...................................................................................................................................................... 23 ***Alternative Causality*** ................................................................................................................................... 24 Alt cause – domestic policy ..................................................................................................................................... 25 Alt cause – security concerns ................................................................................................................................... 26 Alt cause – tech ...................................................................................................................................................... 27 Alt cause – strategic advnatage ................................................................................................................................ 28 Alt cause – nuclear power ....................................................................................................................................... 29 1
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MGW 2010 Proliferation UQ & Links McFarland/Smith Lab ***UQ – prolif now*** 2
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MGW 2010 Proliferation UQ & Links McFarland/Smith Lab Prolif now – US policy Current US technology sharing policy encourages prolif Sagan , Professor of political science-Stanford, 07 (Scott, ”A nuclear Iran”, Journal of international affairs, Spring/summer 2007, Vol. 60 Issue 2, RSW) <Scott Sagan: There is that risk, but it seems to me that recent American policy has created a far greater risk of giving states incentives by threatening them so often. There are always incentives that might push another country to say, "You gave them light water reactors and promised not to attack them, so I should threaten to develop weapons unless the U.S. helps me with security and energy too." But perhaps that's not a worst set of incentives to give countries. This is a small problem compared to the current dangers in encouraging countries to develop nuclear weapons in response to our threats. So if other countries attempt to pursue nuclear proliferation unless we give them light water reactors, that's a small price to pay.> US Policy on NPR Gives Incentive for Iran to Proliferate Fathi , Iranian correspondent for the New York Times, Sanger, Chief Washington correspondent for The New York Times 2010 (Nazila, David E., The New York Times, 4-22, Lexis Nexis, 6/26/10 AU) <Speaking in Washington on Wednesday, Gary Samore, Mr. Obama's top adviser on unconventional weapons, said the wording of the nuclear review was ''deliberately crafted'' to exclude Iran and North Korea from the security guarantee, creating an incentive for both countries to come into compliance with the treaty. (While North Korea has conducted two nuclear tests and is believed to have fuel for eight or more weapons, the United States has never acknowledged it as a nuclear-weapons state.) Mr. Samore insisted that Mr. Obama's decision did not amount to making a nuclear threat against Iran, which many Western countries believe is pursuing a weapon. The policy, Mr. Samore said, referred only to the use of nuclear weapons in the most extreme circumstances, which most experts believe means in retaliation for a strike against the United States or its allies. Still, Ayatollah Khamenei's statement struck at the heart of one of the criticisms of Mr. Obama's Nuclear Posture Review: That it
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