IMPACT DEFENSE TONY - WNDI 2010 1 Johnson/Butler Impact Defense Hannah Savannah Margarite Justin Emily Noga Ethan Jacob Cody Impact Defense Hannah

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Unformatted text preview: WNDI 2010 1 Johnson/Butler Impact Defense Hannah, Savannah, Margarite, Justin, Emily, Noga, Ethan, Jacob, Cody Impact Defense: Hannah, Savannah, Margarite, Justin, Emily, Noga, Ethan, Jacob, Cody WNDI 2010 3 Johnson/Butler Impact Defense **AT: Middle East** AT: Middle East Wars Middle East wars don’t escalate – historically & regional armies aren’t able to mount offensives. Yglesias, 2007 [Matthew Yglesias is an Associate Editor of The Atlantic Monthly, “Containing Iraq,” The Atlantic, 12 Sep 2007, http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/09/containing_iraq.php] Kevin Drum tries to throw some water on the "Middle East in Flames" theory holding that American withdrawal from Iraq will lead not only to a short-term intensification of fighting in Iraq, but also to some kind of broader regional conflagration. Ivo Daalder and James Lindsay, as usual sensible but several clicks to my right, also make this point briefly in Democracy: "Talk that Iraq’s troubles will trigger a regional war is overblown; none of the half-dozen civil wars the Middle East has witnessed over the past half-century led to a regional conflagration." Als o worth mentioning in this context is the basic point that the Iranian and Syrian militaries just aren't able to conduct meaningful offensive military operations. The Saudi, Kuwait, and Jordanian militaries are even worse. The IDF has plenty of Arabs to fight closer to home . What you're looking at, realistically, is that our allies in Kurdistan might provide safe harbor to PKK guerillas, thus prompting our allies in Turkey to mount some cross-border military strikes against the PKK or possibly retaliatory ones against other Kurdish targets. This is a real problem, but it's obviously not a problem that's mitigated by having the US Army try to act as the Baghdad Police Department or sending US Marines to wander around the desert hunting a possibly mythical terrorist organization. No risk of Middle East war. Susan Maloney and Ray Takeyh , 6/28/ 2007 . Senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the Saban Center for Middle East Studies at the Brookings Institution and senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Why the Iraq War Won’t Engulf the Mideast,” International Herald Tribune, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2007/0628iraq_maloney.aspx. Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians, Syrians, and others are very unlikely to go to war either to protect their own sect or ethnic group or to prevent one country from gaining the upper hand in Iraq. The reasons are fairly straightforward. First, Middle Eastern leaders , like politicians everywhere, are primarily interested in one thing: self-preservation. Committing forces to Iraq is an inherently risky proposition, which, if the conflict went badly, could threaten domestic political stability . Moreover, most Arab armies are geared toward regime protection....
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This note was uploaded on 02/23/2012 for the course DEBATE 101 taught by Professor None during the Spring '12 term at University of California, Berkeley.

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IMPACT DEFENSE TONY - WNDI 2010 1 Johnson/Butler Impact Defense Hannah Savannah Margarite Justin Emily Noga Ethan Jacob Cody Impact Defense Hannah

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