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Heg Good-Bad Updates

Heg Good-Bad Updates - HEG GOOD/BAD WAVE 4 HEG GOOD/BAD...

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HEG GOOD/BAD WAVE 4 HEG GOOD/BAD WAVE 4 ................................................................................................................................... 1 A2: HEG UNSUSTAINABLE (GENERIC) ............................................................................................................. 13 1. Short term loss of Hegemony outweighs – the international system would become a global game of Calvinball with all countries seeking to project their own power – guarantees world-wide conflicts that have no check for escalation ...................................................................................................................................... 13 2. US hegemony is guaranteed – economics and interdependence ................................................................ 13 3. Declinism is exaggerated – Our argument is empirically proven in the context of demographics .............. 14 A2: IMPERIAL OVERSTRETCH .......................................................................................................................... 15 1. Short term loss of Hegemony outweighs – the international system would become a global game of Calvinball with all countries seeking to project their own power – guarantees world-wide conflicts that have no check for escalation ...................................................................................................................................... 15 2. Heg is sustainable – hegemonic cooperation ................................................................................................ 15 3. Dominant sea power prevents balancing – comprehensive historical studies prove ................................... 15 A2: ECONOMIC OPENESS ................................................................................................................................. 16 1. We control the biggest internal link – military power ensures other countries follow the US-led system – the reason the global economy is in place is because the US has labored to create an economically liberal order ................................................................................................................................................................... 16 2. Interdependence maintains US power .......................................................................................................... 16 3. Other nations’ economic competitiveness doesn’t translate to major hegemonic threat – Japan proves...16 4. Hegemony is sustainable even if the US declines economically .................................................................. 16 A2: ECONOMIC OPENESS ................................................................................................................................. 17 A2: EXCESSIVE DEFENSE SPENDING ................................................................................................................ 18 1. Short term loss of Hegemony outweighs – the world would collapse into chaos as countries lose faith in international security – there’s always a risk that reforms to spending in the future can check ....................... 18 2. Heg is sustainable – hegemonic cooperation ................................................................................................ 18 3. Disproven by the past recessions – the US always comes out on top ......................................................... 18 A2: EXCESSIVE DEFENSE SPENDING ................................................................................................................ 19 4. If worse comes to worst, latent power will fill in ............................................................................................. 19 A2: DEBT/DEFICIT ............................................................................................................................................ 20 1. Short term loss of Hegemony outweighs – the world would collapse into chaos as countries lose faith in international security – there’s always a risk that reforms to spending in the future can check ....................... 20 2. Heg is sustainable – hegemonic cooperation ................................................................................................ 20 3. Disproven by the past recessions – the US always comes out on top ......................................................... 20 A2: DEBT/DEFICIT ............................................................................................................................................ 21 4. Recession is irrelevant—we control every sector and everyone needs us .................................................. 21 A2: DEMOGRAPHICS ........................................................................................................................................ 22 1. Short term loss of Hegemony outweighs – the world would collapse into chaos as countries lose faith in international security ......................................................................................................................................... 22 2. Demographics go our way ............................................................................................................................. 22 A2: DEMOGRAPHICS ........................................................................................................................................ 23 3. Our argument is empirically proven .............................................................................................................. 23
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A2: ECONOMIC CRISIS ..................................................................................................................................... 25 1. Hegemony is still credible in the Status Quo – this is just an argument for why the maintaining it now is key - countries will see leadership in this crisis as a test case of US primacy ................................................. 25 2. Declinism is exaggerated – the US will maintain hegemony ....................................................................... 25 -other countries are bandwagoning and distrust China ..................................................................................... 25 -the US will remain the largest economy .......................................................................................................... 25 -the US will maintain military superiority ........................................................................................................... 25 A2: ECONOMIC CRISIS ..................................................................................................................................... 26 3. Our argument is empirically proven in the context of demographics
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