36841 - The New World of Biofuels: Implications for...

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Unformatted text preview: The New World of Biofuels: Implications for Agriculture and Energy Keith Collins, Chief Economist, USDA EIA Energy Outlook, Modeling, and Data Conference March 28, 2007 Overview Ag 101 Status of Biofuels & Market Implications Public Policy and Biofuels Role of Research USDA Energy Policy & 2007 Farm Bill Ag at a Glance Farm Program Payments . . . corn accounts for a large share 5 10 15 20 25 30 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 F Fiscal Year Billion $ Other crops Corn Corn Ethanol Production . . . expect to use 27% of 07 corn crop for nearly 9 bil. gal. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 9 8 / 1 1 9 8 3 / 4 1 9 8 6 / 7 1 9 8 9 / 9 1 9 9 2 / 9 3 1 9 9 5 / 9 6 1 9 9 8 / 9 9 2 1 / 2 2 4 / 5 2 7 / 8 F Billion gallons 5 10 15 20 25 30 Percent Ethanol Share of Corn Production Biodiesel Production . . . expect to use 17% of 07 soyoil crop for 500 mil. gal. 100 200 300 400 500 600 2 / 1 2 1 / 2 2 2 / 3 2 3 / 4 2 4 / 5 2 5 / 6 2 6 / 7 2 7 / 8 F Million gallons 4 8 12 16 20 24 Percent Biodiesel Share Global Coarse Grain Stocks . . . getting uncomfortably tight 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1977/78 1981/82 1985/86 1989/90 1993/94 1997/98 2001/02 2005/06 % of total use 2006/07F: 12% 19% & Record corn prices Crop Year 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Corn Soybeans Wheat Upland Cotton $ per acre 2006 2007 Expected Net Returns . . ....
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36841 - The New World of Biofuels: Implications for...

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