34301 - Bas ic Pro bability Co nc e pts Dr Mona Hassan...

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Bas ic Probability Concepts Dr Mona Hassan Ahmed Hassan Prof of Biostatistics High Institute of Public Health Alexandria, Egypt
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Introduction People use the term probability many times each day. For example, physician says that a patient has a 50-50 chance of surviving a certain operation. Another physician may say that she is 95% certain that a patient has a particular disease
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Definition If an event can occur in N mutually exclusive and equally likely ways, and if m of these possess a trait, E, the probability of the occurrence of E is read as P(E) = m/N
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Definition Experiment ==> any planned process of data collection. It consists of a number of trials (replications) under the same condition.
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Male, Female Sample space: collection of unique, non-overlapping possible outcomes of a random circumstance. Simple event: one outcome in the sample space; a possible outcome of a random circumstance. Event: a collection of one or more simple events in the sample space; often written as A, B, C, and so on Definition
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Complement ==> sometimes, we want to know the probability that an event will not happen; an event opposite to the event of interest is called a complementary event. If A is an event, its complement is The probability of the complement is A C or f8e5 A Example: The complement of male event is the female P (A) + P (A C ) = 1 Definition
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Views of Probability: 1-Subjective: It is an estimate that reflects a person’s opinion, or best guess about whether an outcome will occur. Important in medicine form the basis of a physician’s opinion (based on information gained in the history and physical examination) about whether a patient has a specific disease. Such estimate can be changed with the results of diagnostic procedures.
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2- Objective Classical It is well known that the probability of flipping a fair coin and getting a “tail” is 0.50. If
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34301 - Bas ic Pro bability Co nc e pts Dr Mona Hassan...

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