CNDI---Japan-Re-arm-Disadvantage

CNDI---Japan-Re-arm-Disadvantage - CNDI 2010 Japan Re-arm...

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CNDI 2010 Japan Re-arm Disadvantage Starter Pack Index Index ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1NC Japan Re-arm Disadvantage 1/3 ...................................................................................................................................... 2 ________________________ ................................................................................................................................................. 5 *****UNIQUENESS***** .................................................................................................................................................... 5 Uniqueness – No Re-arm 1/2 ................................................................................................................................................... 6 Brink – Japan Re-arm Likely ................................................................................................................................................... 8 ________________ ................................................................................................................................................................. 9 *****LINKS***** ................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Link – Military Presence 1/3 ................................................................................................................................................. 10 ___________________ ......................................................................................................................................................... 13 *****IMPACTS***** .......................................................................................................................................................... 13 Impact – Asia Arms Race 1/3 ................................................................................................................................................ 14 Impact – Indo-Pak Arms Race 1/2 ......................................................................................................................................... 17 Impact – Sino-Japan War ...................................................................................................................................................... 19 Impact – North Korea ............................................................................................................................................................ 20 Impact – Nanotechnology ...................................................................................................................................................... 21 Impact – Japan Economy 1/3 ................................................................................................................................................. 23 Impact – US Economy 1/2 .................................................................................................................................................... 27 Impact – Timeframe = Immediate ......................................................................................................................................... 30 A2: No Re-arm – Perception Link ......................................................................................................................................... 31 A2: No Re-arm – Technical Barriers ..................................................................................................................................... 32 A2: No Re-arm – DPJ ........................................................................................................................................................... 33 A2: No Re-arm – Public 1/2 .................................................................................................................................................. 34 ______________ ................................................................................................................................................................... 36 *****AFF***** ................................................................................................................................................................... 36 2AC Non-unique – Re-arm Now ........................................................................................................................................... 37 2AC No Link – Troops Not Key ........................................................................................................................................... 38 2AC No Impact – No Re-arm (Technical Barriers) 1/2 .......................................................................................................... 39 2AC No Impact – No Re-arm (DPJ) 1/2 ................................................................................................................................ 41 2AC No Impact – No Re-arm (Public) 1/4 ............................................................................................................................. 43 2AC Strong Alliance Bad – Sino-Japan War ......................................................................................................................... 47 2AC Strong Alliance Bad – US-Sino War ............................................................................................................................. 48 1
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CNDI 2010 Japan Re-arm Disadvantage Starter Pack 1NC Japan Re-arm Disadvantage 1/3 US security credibility with allies is high – troop presence is key Russell ’10 (James, Co-Dir. – Center for Contemporary Conflict at Naval Postgraduate School, Former Advisor to the Sec. Def. on Persian Gulf strategy, PhD Candidate in War Studies – King’s College U. London, “Extended Deterrence, Security Guarantees and Nuclear Weapons: U.S. Strategic and Policy Conundrums in the Gulf”, 1-5, http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=3297) Her formulation reflects a firm historic grounding in the time-honored Cold War concepts of extended deterrence and security assurances, both of which have served as vitally important tools of American statecraft since the dawn of the nuclear age.[15] Extended deterrence is the threat to use force , including nuclear weapons, against an adversary that threatens an ally . As noted by political scientist Paul Huth: “The objective of extended deterrence is to protect other countries and territories from attack, as opposed to preventing a direct attack on one’s own national territory.”[16] Security assurances are the means through which the actor drawing upon extended deterrence conveys the commitment to an ally’s security. Each of these concepts is critically contingent on the credibility of the actor extending the deterrent umbrella and the security guarantees, which may or may not involve the specific commitment of nuclear weapons.[17] To be effective, the actor receiving these assurances and the antagonist threatening action must be convinced that the security provider is prepared to follow through on its conveyed commitments .[18] The linked concepts of extended deterrence and security guarantees are nothing new to American security strategy.[19] During the Cold War, the United States’ commitment to defend Europe became operationalized through a series of extended deterrent commitments that included the basing of nuclear weapons in Europe that could have been used in the event of a Soviet attack. In Europe, the United States and its NATO allies eventually constructed
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