Politics-Disadvantage---START---Capitol

Politics-Disadvantage---START---Capitol - CCDI 2010 BBL LAB...

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CCDI 2010 Politics – Obama Good BBL LAB Page 1 of 77 Politics – Obama Good
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1NC Shell – Obama Good – START Good (1/2) A. Uniqueness and impact – START ratification likely now – ratification failure triggers a ripple effect collapsing arms control and global security Rogin, Foreign Policy’s The Cable Blog writer, 7-19-10 (Josh, Foreign Policy The Cable Blog, “What are the consequences if START ratification fails?”, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/07/19/what_are_the_consequences_if_start_ratificatio n_fails , accessed 7-19-10) The conventional wisdom in Washington is tha t President Obama's strategic arms- control treaty with Russia will be eventually ratified by the Senate, with a smattering of reluctant GOP votes. But what if that doesn't happen ? The possibility of the treaty being rejected or stalled indefinitely is a real one . The center of gravity on the Senate side is around Sens. Jon Kyl, R-AZ, and John McCain, R-AZ, neither of whom has revealed yet which way they will vote. Interested but less-involved senators like Bob Corker, R-TN, are likely to follow their lead. It's been reported that Kyl is in negotiations now, bargaining for concessions, such as more money for nuclear modernization or guarantees that missile defense won't fall victim to the treaty. But in the end, there's no assurance he will vote yes, and the treaty could be voted down or pulled from consideration. That would be a huge setback for U.S. credibility abroad and the Obama administration's entire arms-control agenda, according to experts, former officials, and foreign diplomats. "If this were to go down, the ripple effect consequences around the world would be the worst possible outcome we've seen since World War II," said former Sen . Chuck Hagel, the Nebraska Republican who currently co-chair's Obama's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. "It would set in motion the disintegration of any confidence in the leadership of the two major nuclear powers to deal with this and it would set in motion a disintegration of any structural boundaries and capacities to deal with this. This would devastating not just for arms control but for security interests worldwide." While New START is a deal between the U.S. and Russia, which account for approximately 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons, its defeat would harm international efforts to later bring other nuclear powers into an arms-control regime, according to former Democratic Senator Gary Hart . "The two of us have the greatest burden , but sooner or later we want to bring in China and our European allies that have nuclear arsenals and see how far we can go," Hart said. "But it must begin with us and the Russians, and if we turn our back. .. it's a giant step backward and it would set back our diplomacy, foreign policy, and national security in serious ways." B. Link – accelerating troop withdrawal drains political capital Hiatt, Washington Post editorial editor, 10 (Fred, Herald-Sun, 4-27-10, “Leaving worthy issues on the table”, Lexis) To avoid that trap, Obama had to govern with discipline. First, he would have to turn
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Politics-Disadvantage---START---Capitol - CCDI 2010 BBL LAB...

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