1NC Shell – Obama Good – START Good (1/2)
A. Uniqueness and impact – START ratification likely now – ratification failure triggers a
ripple effect collapsing arms control and global security
Rogin, Foreign Policy’s The Cable Blog writer, 7-19-10
(Josh, Foreign Policy The Cable Blog, “What are the consequences if START ratification fails?”,
, accessed 7-19-10)
The conventional wisdom in Washington is tha
Obama's strategic arms-
control treaty with Russia will be eventually ratified by the Senate, with a smattering of
reluctant GOP votes. But what if that doesn't happen
The possibility of the treaty being rejected or stalled indefinitely is a real one
. The center
of gravity on the Senate side is around Sens. Jon Kyl, R-AZ, and John McCain, R-AZ, neither
of whom has revealed yet which way they will vote. Interested but less-involved senators like
Bob Corker, R-TN, are likely to follow their lead.
It's been reported that Kyl is in negotiations now, bargaining for concessions, such as more
money for nuclear modernization or guarantees that missile defense won't fall victim to the
treaty. But in the end, there's no assurance he will vote yes, and
the treaty could be voted
or pulled from consideration.
That would be a huge setback for U.S. credibility
abroad and the Obama administration's entire arms-control agenda, according to
experts, former officials, and foreign diplomats.
"If this were to go down, the ripple effect consequences around the world would be the
worst possible outcome we've seen since World War II," said former Sen
the Nebraska Republican who currently co-chair's Obama's Foreign Intelligence
Advisory Board. "It would set in motion the disintegration of any confidence in the
leadership of the two major nuclear powers to deal with this and it would set in motion a
disintegration of any structural boundaries and capacities to deal with this. This would
devastating not just for arms control but for security interests worldwide."
While New START is a deal between the U.S. and Russia, which account for approximately
90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons,
its defeat would harm international efforts to
later bring other nuclear powers into an arms-control regime, according to former
"The two of us have the greatest burden
, but sooner or later
we want to bring in China
and our European allies that have nuclear arsenals
and see how far we can go,"
"But it must begin with us and the Russians, and if we turn our back.
.. it's a giant step
backward and it would set back our diplomacy, foreign policy, and national security in
B. Link – accelerating troop withdrawal drains political capital
Hiatt, Washington Post editorial editor, 10
(Fred, Herald-Sun, 4-27-10, “Leaving worthy issues on the table”, Lexis)
To avoid that trap,
Obama had to govern with discipline. First, he would have to turn