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MGW10-GP-Middle-East-Instability-Bad

MGW10-GP-Middle-East-Instability-Bad - MGW 2010 Grove/Petit...

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MGW 2010 middle east war bad Grove/Petit Middle East Instability BAD Middle East Instability BAD ..................................................................................................................................... 1 ***Yes Escalation*** ............................................................................................................................................... 2 Yes escalation (1) ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 Yes escalation (2) ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 Yes escalation – generic ............................................................................................................................................ 5 Yes escalation – iran ................................................................................................................................................ 6 Yes escalation – iraq ................................................................................................................................................ 7 ***A2 oil link*** ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 No price drop (1) ....................................................................................................................................................... 9 No Price Drop (2) .................................................................................................................................................... 10 Ext – Peak Oil ......................................................................................................................................................... 11 Ext – Global Demand .............................................................................................................................................. 12 Ext – Commodity Exchange .................................................................................................................................... 13 Ext – OPEC ............................................................................................................................................................. 15 Ext – China ............................................................................................................................................................. 16 No Transition .......................................................................................................................................................... 17 ***A2 Renewables*** ............................................................................................................................................ 18 Not oil price dependent – 2ac ................................................................................................................................. 19 Not oil price dependent – 1ar .................................................................................................................................. 20 Renewables Fail ...................................................................................................................................................... 21 Solar Bad ................................................................................................................................................................ 22 Solar bad exts .......................................................................................................................................................... 23 Silver exts ............................................................................................................................................................... 23 Wind Bad ................................................................................................................................................................ 24 ***A2 warming*** ................................................................................................................................................. 25 A2 warming (1) ....................................................................................................................................................... 26 A2 warming (2) ....................................................................................................................................................... 27 Ext – warming natural ............................................................................................................................................. 28 Ext – warming not significant .................................................................................................................................. 29 Ext – not enough fuel .............................................................................................................................................. 30 Ext – warming Inevitable ........................................................................................................................................ 31 ***A2 nuclear power*** ......................................................................................................................................... 32 US nuke power increase now ................................................................................................................................... 33 Nuke power turn – terror/prolif ................................................................................................................................ 34 Not Solve – generic (1) ............................................................................................................................................ 35 Not Solve – generic (2) ............................................................................................................................................ 36 Nuclear power fails – uranium shortage ................................................................................................................... 37 Economy turn .......................................................................................................................................................... 38 Terrorism turn ......................................................................................................................................................... 39 A2 Plants safe (1) .................................................................................................................................................... 40 A2 Plants safe (2) .................................................................................................................................................... 41 Accidents turn ......................................................................................................................................................... 42 Accident exts ........................................................................................................................................................... 43 A2 Warming – nuke power not solve (1) ................................................................................................................. 44 A2 Warming – nuke power not solve (2) ................................................................................................................. 45 ***Instability good cards*** ................................................................................................................................... 46 No nuke power (1) .................................................................................................................................................. 47 No nuke power (2) .................................................................................................................................................. 48 Expanding globally now .......................................................................................................................................... 49 1
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MGW 2010 middle east war bad Grove/Petit ***Yes Escalation*** 2
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MGW 2010 middle east war bad Grove/Petit Yes escalation (1) Nuclear war in the Middle East is still likely. Charles F. Doran is Andrew W. Mellon Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Washington DC, “Is Major War Obsolete? An Exchange” Survival, vol. 41, no. 2, Summer 1999 , pp. 139—52 What is frightening about this possibility, however, is that, as nuclear weapons proliferate, major wars may take place in areas where they would not previously have been expected: the Middle East for example . These new nuclear powers will possess relatively small nuclear forces for some time. They will still not have deterrent forces approaching second-strike capabilities. The populations and states in the region are relatively concentrated, and there is a history of surprise attack . Much of the proliferation is ‘paired’ between rivals, and it is very difficult for other states to control this dynamic, either in terms of the possible outbreak of war or in terms of the proliferation process itself Middle East is powder keg, any conflict will spillover The Age 9/24/ 2007 “Tempers must remain cool as the Middle East heats up”, http://www.theage.com.au/news/editorial/tempers-must-remain-cool-as-the-middle-east-heats- up/2007/09/23/1190486129857.html THE torturous road to peace in the Middle East becomes more excruciating every day and the cumulative effect of events in the region over the past week offer little hope for any reduction in what appear to be increasingly flammable tensions. If anything, the talk now is of war . The match that lights the flame may well be last Thursday's assassination of Lebanese MP Antoine Ghanem, a violent murder that pitched his divided nation further into turmoil. His death was the latest in a string of attacks against
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