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SOUTH KOREA AFF 2 - SOUTH KOREA AFF 1/173 SOUTH KOREA...

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SOUTH KOREA AFF  Michigan 2010 1/173 7 Week Seniors SOUTH KOREA  South Korea ................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Inherency ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Troop Reductions Inev ................................................................................................................................................................ 9 Reunification Inevitable ............................................................................................................................................................ 10 No DPRK Attack ..................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Overstretch Advantage 1AC ..................................................................................................................................................... 12 Overstretch Solvency – Ext ...................................................................................................................................................... 16 Overstretch Now – Ext .............................................................................................................................................................. 17 Overstretch Kills Heg – Ext ...................................................................................................................................................... 18 Presence Kills Readiness .......................................................................................................................................................... 19 Iran Scenario ............................................................................................................................................................................. 20 Strikes Advantage 1AC ............................................................................................................................................................. 22 Strikes – Solvency Ext .............................................................................................................................................................. 24 Strikes Impact – Relations ........................................................................................................................................................ 25 Prolif Advantage 1AC ............................................................................................................................................................... 26 Terrorism causes global nuclear war. .............................................................................................................. 27 Speice, 2006 (Patrick, J.D. Candidate 2006, Marshall-Wythe School of Law, College of William and Mary, “NEGLIGENCE AND NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION: ELIMINATING THE CURRENT LIABILITY BARRIER TO BILATERAL U.S.-RUSSIAN NONPROLIFERATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS,” William & Mary Law Review, Feb, l/n) ............................................................................................................................... 27 Ballistic Missile Prolif Internal Link ........................................................................................................................................ 28 Prolif – Terrorism Scenario Ext ................................................................................................................................................ 29 This guarantees nuclear terrorism. .................................................................................................................. 29 North Korea Prolif – Solvency Ext ........................................................................................................................................... 30 Ballistic Missile Prolif Bad ....................................................................................................................................................... 31 A2: No Incentive For Ballistic Missiles ................................................................................................................................... 32 Turns Deterrence ....................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Ballistic missile prolif collapses deterrence. ..................................................................................................... 33 Beard & Eland, 1999 .......................................................................................................................................... 33 Internal Link/Uniqueness .......................................................................................................................................................... 34 Over 20 countries on the brink. ........................................................................................................................ 34 Hawkins, 2009 ................................................................................................................................................... 34 Ballistic missile prolif snowballs. ....................................................................................................................... 34 Barkley, 2008 .................................................................................................................................................... 34 And, missile prolif now – Middle East, Southeast and East Asia – will cause rapid regional destabilization. 35 Handzlik, 2003 ................................................................................................................................................... 35 Widespread missile prolif – causes instability and wars. ................................................................................. 35 Jing, 2002 ........................................................................................................................................................... 35 Ballistic missile prolif makes miscalc and accidents likely. .............................................................................. 36 Forsberg, 1987 .................................................................................................................................................. 36 And guarantee crisis instability and rapid attack preparations. ........................................................................ 36 1 “And there went out another horse that was red: and power was given to him that sat thereon to take peace from the earth, and that  they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a great sword.” Rev. 6:4
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SOUTH KOREA AFF  Michigan 2010 2/173 7 Week Seniors Frye, 1992 ......................................................................................................................................................... 36 Ballistic missiles create unique destabilization – other weapons don’t. ........................................................... 36 Forsberg, 1987 .................................................................................................................................................. 36 Ballistic missiles make regional escalation and preemption inevitable. ........................................................... 37 Canadian Security, 2001 .................................................................................................................................... 37 Use creates psychological reactions that increase tensions in regional conflicts. .......................................... 37 Handzlik, 2003 [Mariusz, Department of Security Policy MOFA Warsaw Chairman , Missile Technology Control Regime, “The Proliferation of Missile Technologies,” http://scm.oas.org/pdfs/2003/cp11871.pdf] ..... 37 Ballistic missile prolif guarantees preemptive attacks on new proliferators. .................................................... 37 Anthony, 2000 .................................................................................................................................................... 37 Ballistic missile prolif poses catastrophic risks – even if its not high probability, magnitude should be prioritized. .......................................................................................................................................................... 38 Beard & Eland, 1999 .......................................................................................................................................... 38 MTCR fails .......................................................................................................................................................... 39 Kerr, 2003 ........................................................................................................................................................... 39 MTCR fails .......................................................................................................................................................... 39 Barkley, 2008 .................................................................................................................................................... 39 1AC/2AC – Middle East Ballistic Missile Prolif ..................................................................................................................... 40 Middle East ballistic missile prolif guarantees conflict escalation. ................................................................... 40 Gold, 2000 [Dore, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, “MIDDLE EAST MISSILE PROLIFERATION, ISRAELI MISSILE DEFENSE, AND THE ABM TREATY DEBATE,” http://www.jcpa.org/jl/jl430.htm] ............ 40 1AC/2AC – North Korea ......................................................................................................................................................... 41 DPRK ballistic missiles cause nuclear escalation on the Peninsula and first strikes on the US. .................... 41 Anthony, 2000 .................................................................................................................................................... 41 Extinction. .......................................................................................................................................................... 42 Africa News, 10/25/1999. “Third world war: Watch the Koreas,” Lexis
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