Election outcomes and 2008 election

Election outcomes and 2008 election - 2008 ELECTION Part I....

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2008 ELECTION Part I. Election Round-Up The Presidency Popular Vote Outcome? 52-53% OBAMA Electoral College Outcome? 349-163 plus Missouri (McCain) and North Carolina (Obama) still undecided The Senate Leading in to Election Day… 49D, 49R, 2I How Many Seats Were Up? What Happened? Why was 60 seats an important benchmark? Wanted to be filibuster proof The House Leading in to Election Day… What happened? Patterns in congressional election outcomes? Part II--Predicting Presidential Election Outcomes I. Basics of Forecasting Models A. What are they? Equations designed by to predict what the vote share will be in November B. What do they assume about elections? 1. Campaigns themselves do not matter all that much 2. Variables that predicted outcomes in past elections are also good predictors of the current one. C. What variables do they usually contain? 1. Some economic indicators 2. Some measures of the political environment II. Effect of the Economy A. Conventional Wisdom - Assumes that when the economy is going well, the President and to a lesser extent the President’s party are rewarded. B. Some Indicators 1. GDP/GNP 2. Rate of economic growth 3. Unemployment/Inflation rates 4. The number of new jobs that are created 5. Consumer confidence 6. Forecasts about economic future C. Some Debates 1
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1. Actual economic performance vs. perceived economic importance? 2.
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This note was uploaded on 02/23/2012 for the course POSI 1310 taught by Professor Arnold during the Fall '08 term at Texas State.

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Election outcomes and 2008 election - 2008 ELECTION Part I....

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