Presidential Campaigns

Presidential Campaigns - Presidential Campaigns I The...

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Presidential Campaigns I The Invisible Primary through New Hampshire and Iowa I. Party Rules re: Nomination A. Historically B. Effect of 1968 Democratic Nomination Battle 1. Big issue in 1968 campaign? Referendum about how Johnson was doing 2. What happens during the primaries? a. After only squeaking by Eugene McCarthy in the NH primary (and having Robert Kennedy enter the race)… Johnson withdraws b. Hubert Humphrey (the VP) enters the race… he doesn’t have grassroots support but is supported by the party establishment. c. McCarthy campaign fizzles, Kennedy assassinated, McGovern enters, but… Humphrey easily wins the nomination at the convention and an amendment to platform to pull out of Vietnam is defeated. d. Meanwhile, thousands protest war outside e. The convention agrees to form a committee to talk about reforming delegate selection rules C. Democratic Delegate Selection Reforms (1968-1980) 1. Basic Principles a. Delegate selection should be a "fair reflection" of… sentiment among the Dem rank and file. b. Delegates should be awarded… proportionally to the popular vote. c. Delegates should be selected no earlier than… the calendar year of the election. d. Should increase proportion of… women (50/50), minority, and young delegates. e. Increase use of… primaries to select delegates. 2. Consequences? a. Increased participation (good!) b. "Front-loading" = lengthening of the process and escalation of costs i. gives some states undue influence ii. effects style of campaigning iii. Advantages candidates who can… raise large sums of $$ early, have org support within party, and are good at media campaigning. c. Less participation of elected officials and party leaders = cleavages and inter party divisiveness D. Further Democratic Reforms (1981-present) 1. Attempts to limit front-loading - creation on window for primaries and caucuses - extra delegates for those who schedule later primaries - sanctions for those who ignore the window
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2. Adjustments of proportionality/threshold requirements 3. Creation of "Party Leader and Elected Official Delegates" Aka PLEOs aka Add on unpledged delegates aka superdelegates- only dems 4. Even pledged delegates can… vote their conscience at the convention. E. What about the Republicans? 1. Different rules about how changes can be made to delegate selection procedures 2. Fewer rules that apply to state parties a. no primary/caucus window b. no min threshold for delegates c. no requirements for proportioniality d. no official cat for super del e. no riles of demographic of delegates 3. Reforms being considered? F. Some Convention Math for 2008 1. Republicans a. 1917 pledged + 463 unpledged = 2380 b. Magic number = 1191 to get nom c. Totals at Convention McCain -1563 2. Democrats (at start of primary season) a. 3,253 state caucus and primary delegates + 796 superdelegates = 4049 b. Magic number = 2025 delegates c. Potential Complications? Didn’t think either Obama or Clinton was going to get the magic #
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Presidential Campaigns - Presidential Campaigns I The...

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