12781 - Validation citations Validation x x x x x x Expert...

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Validation / citations
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Validation Expert review of model structure Expert review of basic code implementation Reproduce original inputs Correctly respond to changes in parameters Consistent with other analyses Consistent across versions
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Documentation specifications Validation requires adequate documentation to… Describe clinical model Describe programming algorithms Describe inputs (sources / values / data quality) Describe validation strategy
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Citations Basic rationale and structure -- Matchar et al., Annals of Internal Medicine (1997) Bootstrapped sensitivity analysis -- Parmigiani et al., Medical Decision Making (1997) Application to acute stroke trial -- Samsa et al., Journal of Clinical Epidemiology (in press)
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Outline Rationale for modeling Stroke model described Applying the SPM to a randomized trial (*) Extensions
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Applying the SPM to an RCT Basic idea : After the short follow-up period typical of an RCT, we are likely to observe that the intervention induces small shifts in the distribution of morality / disability (measured at the conclusion of follow-up). Modeling can be used to account for the effects of these shifts on long-term outcomes.
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Disability measure Disability could be measured by the Rankin Scale (RS), Barthel Index (BI), or a number of other instruments.
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