15011 - The future for medical education: speculation and...

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Unformatted text preview: The future for medical education: speculation and possible implications Richard Smith Editor, BMJ www.bmj.com/talks What I want to talk about Dangers of looking to the future How to look to the future Possible futures for health care The old world and the new world Reinventing medical education Dangers of predicting the future Sam Goldwyn Mayer I never make predictions, especially about the future. Predictions of Lord Kelvin, president of the Royal Society, 1890-95 Radio has not future X-rays will prove to be a hoax Heavier than air flying machines are impossible What was predicted The leisure society The paperless office The death of the novel What wasnt predicted The end of communism The rapid spread of the internet September 11 Looking to the future: common mistakes Making predictions rather than attaching probabilities to possibilities Simply extrapolating current trends Thinking of only one future Looking to the future: common mistakes People consistently overestimate the effect of short term change and underestimate the effect of long term change. Ian Morrison, former president of the Institute for the Future Why bother with the future? "If you think that you can run an organisation in the next 10 years as you've run it in the past 10 years you're out of your mind." CEO, Coca Cola Why bother with the future? The future belongs to the unreasonable ones, the ones who look forward not backward, who are certain only of uncertainty, and who have the ability and the confidence to think completely differently. Charles Handy quoting Bernard Shaw Why bother with the future?...
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This note was uploaded on 02/23/2012 for the course PHARM 290 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '10 term at Rutgers.

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15011 - The future for medical education: speculation and...

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