15081 - The future of health care Richard Smith Editor, BMJ...

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The future of health care Richard Smith Editor, BMJ www.bmj.com/talks
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The possible agenda Dangers and difficulties of looking to the future Why bother then? How best to think about the future? What is Foresight? Drivers of the future Three scenarios Pictures of the future of health care Two reports on the future of health care What does the future mean for now?
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Dangers of predicting the future I never make predictions, especially about the future. Sam Goldwyn Mayer
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Predictions of Lord Kelvin, president of the Royal Society, 1890-95 "Radio has no future" "Heavier than air flying machines are impossible" "X rays will prove to be a hoax”
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Looking to the future: common mistakes Making predictions rather than attaching probabilities to possibilities Simply extrapolating current trends Thinking of only one future People consistently overestimate the effect of short term change and underestimate the effect of long term change. Ian Morrison, former president of the Institute for the Future
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Why bother with the future? "If you think that you can run an organisation in the next 10 years as you've run it in the past 10 years you're out of your mind." CEO, Coca Cola
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Why bother with the future? “The future belongs to the unreasonable ones, the ones who look forward not backward, who are certain only of uncertainty, and who have the ability and the confidence to think completely differently.” Charles Handy quoting Bernard Shaw The point is not to predict the future but to prepare for it and to shape it
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How best to think about the future? No answer to the question, but one way Think of the drivers of change Use the drivers to imagine different scenarios of the future Imagine perhaps three; each should be plausible but different Extrapolate back from those future scenarios to think about what to do now to prepare
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What is Foresight? Foresight is a method of thinking about the future in order to think about what should be done now The British government has conducted two rounds: startingin1994 and 1999 The first round was concerned mainly with informing research policy; the second was much broader, including social impacts
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The aims of Foresight To produce a report on how the future might look To provide material for central and local government and public and private organisations to prepare for the future To shape the future To get a whole lot of people thinking about the future
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Decide on subjects Gather a group together--diversity is important Ask them to think about the future, using whatever methods they want Oblige them to think along way ahead (2020 in the latest round) Oblige them to be bold and creative (hard) Try and persuade them not to be too linear (hard) Oblige them to think about scientific, organisatiomal, political social implications Ask them to make recommendations on what should happen now to prepare for the future Disseminate with energy
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This note was uploaded on 02/23/2012 for the course PHARM 290 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '10 term at Rutgers.

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15081 - The future of health care Richard Smith Editor, BMJ...

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