session 2 the consumer view

session 2 the consumer view - GE Energy Session 2 of a 5...

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Unformatted text preview: GE Energy Session 2 of a 5 Part Series on the Smart Grid The Smart Grid … Lunch and Learn Session 2: The Smart Grid – The Consumer View 1 Smart Grid Learning Series Session 1: The Smart Grid and its Benefits Session 2: The Smart Grid… The Consumer View Session 3: The Smart Grid… The Distribution View Session 4: The Smart Grid… The Transmission View Session 5: The Smart Grid… The View from Rural America 2 Session 2: The Smart Grid – The Consumer View Topics: Smart Grid Overview • Benefits Overview • Overview of Good Things Enabled by the Smart Grid • Overview of the Calculated Benefits of the Smart Grid Consumer Options • The Power of Information • Energy Management • Demand Side Management • Smart Appliances • Plug In Vehicles • PV and Small Wind Generation New Consumer Possibilities … Customer, Generator, Partner Impact of Policy 3 Introduction Industry challenges Soaring energy demand Power outages’ financial impact Green energy takes center stage Electricity prices on the rise Aging infrastructure/workforce 5 Electricity prices on the rise U.S. sees 6.5% spike in ’09 electric bills 6.5% Source: EIA (Energy information Administration) 6 Electricity … Poised to change the world again “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” - Albert Einstein 7 The Smart Grid Growing complexity in modern grids 9 What is a Smart Grid? The integration of two infrastructures… securely Electrical infrastructure Electrical Infrastructure Information Infrastructure Sources: EPRI® Intelligrid 10 Flexibility for emerging capabilities Wide-Area Protection & Automation Wide-Area Monitoring & Control Renewables Forecasting Renewables Smoothing Delivery Optimization Demand Optimization Asset Optimization 11 Roadmap for a Smarter Grid What it is Demand optimization Manage peak via control of power consumption Why Utility Value/MM Customers* Defer upgrades, optimize generation & renewables $16MM/yr, 51K tons of CO2 reduction+ Res. consumer savings up to 10% Based on 1.6% peak load reduction using critical peak pricing resulting in reduction in fuel costs and deferral of generation capacity Delivery optimization Reduce delivery losses in distribution systems Less energy waste and higher profit margins Asset optimization Prognostics for proactive equipment maintenance Reduced outages and focused maintainers Reliability optimization Wide Area Protection & Control Increased network performance & reliability Renewables optimization Use of Forecasting & Smoothing Compensation for production variability $7MM/yr,, 45K tons of CO2 reduction+ Based on 0.2% loss reduction and 0.5% CVR peak load reduction resulting in reduction in fuel costs and deferral of generation capacity $11MM/yr, ~4.5 yr ROI Based on system-wide deployment of advanced transformer M&D resulting in transformer life extension and reduction in inspection, maintenance & repair costs $7MM/yr Based on the deferral of the capacity upgrade of two 220kV transmission lines for 3 yrs (each line 30 miles long with a cost of upgrade of $1.5MM per mile) Key step for meeting RPS targets, especially in areas with weak grids *Utility savings are approximate annual savings per one million customers + $85/kW-yr peak generation capacity value 12 Demand Optimization – Value to Consumer Demand Smart Thermostat Consumer Interface Smart lighting Smart Meter Efficient appliances Pacific Northwest National Laboratory announces the results of two studies demonstrating consumers and information technology can play an active role in managing the grid “On average, consumers who participated in the project saved approximately 10 percent on their electricity bills” 13 Energy Management Demand Optimization … the green alternative and GE estimates 15 Energy consumption profile … 16 Peak power use … electrical appliances only Electric appliances only 17 Price variations …. driving behavior Electricity Cost by State, January 2009 WA 7.65 MT 8.44 OR 8.41 ID 7.05 NV 12.23 CA 14.95 ND 6.55 WY 7.76 MN 9.59 WI 12.35 SD 7.58 IA 8.88 NE 6.89 UT 8.00 CO 9.25 AZ 9.51 KS 8.16 OK 7.67 NM 9.54 TX 12.79 AK 17.25 NH 16.29 ME VT 16.03 14.37 MI 11.17 OH 9.39 IN IL 8.62 10.78 MO 7.02 AR 8.94 NY 17.46 KY 8.10 PA 10.83 WV 7.40 VA 10.01 NJ 15.8 DE 13.25 MD 14.40 DC 12.83 NC 9.45 TN 9.44 MS AL 9.64 10.31 MA 18.12 RI 17.20 CT 19.49 GA 9.40 SC 9.80 Residential Average Price (cents per KW) 6.00 – 7.99 8.00 – 9.99 LA 8.92 10.00 – 11.99 FL 12.43 12.00 – 15.99 16.00 – 26.00 HI 25.76 Source: Energy Information Administration Table 5.6.A. Average Retail Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector, by State, January 2009 and 2008 (Cents per kilowatthour) 18 Homeowner segmentation (US) …. Size Value Prop VOC Profile Description Savers First-Costers Control Freaks Lazyboys Warm-Bloods Creatures of Comfort While initial Installation Cost is important for this segment, this customer is also highly influenced by Net Monthly Savings . Three types: Basic, Comfort, and Convenience Savers. Home Age: >20 yrs Gas Bill: >$50/mo Elec Bill: >$75/mo Initial Installation Cost is the clear driver for this segment. This segment is averse to Changes in Appliance Use, and the Method of Control is a secondary concern. Age: >36 yrs old 2 Home Size: <2000 ft Home Age: >20 yrs This customer is primarily concerned about the Method of Control to generate savings, yet this customer also prioritizes Net Monthly Savings or Appliance to Control Just like the Warm Bloods except this customer is just as concerned about the Method of Control to generate savings. Besides Installation Cost, this customer is averse to Home Temp Changes of 5 °F or more, yet is rather insensitive to Method of Control. Net Monthly Savings much less important. Age: >36 yrs old Home Size: 1K -3K ft2 Home Age: <5 >26yrs 2 Home Size: >1000 ft Income: $75-$200K/yr Hardly found in CA Support Conservation “I would run a washer and dryer at off-peak times. If you could save more by running things at a different time, why not?” “Appliances, heat and air conditioners consume the most unless you buy [energy saving] appliances It’s … expensive to change out all this stuff.” “If the utility …had a breakout of what I used when and where my major usage is …that would help… I don’t want but them manipulating my energy. ” “Empowerment has an ugly twin. The utility company can also manipulate my usage. ” “I try to watch [energy usage] but me and my wife have a different idea of what’s comfortable.” “It’s hard …it’s running your heater or air conditioner if you want to be comfortable…leaving the lights on … you so don’t come home to a dark house. ” “A partnership with your utility to slash monthly bills and help save you money, with a low up-front installation cost.” “Our energy management system will enable you to reduce your monthly energy bill by as much as 20% without any up-front cost.” “A premium energy management system that you control to manage your bills, and helps you predict your bill payments. ” “An energy management system you program to fit your lifestyle and match your usage needs. ” “Our basic home system will find the best times of day and appliances to control, helping you trim energy costs. ” “Our premium energy management system helps you command and control your home environment. ” 36% 20% 12% 19% 9% 4% Source: GE Study Regardless of Installation Cost, this customer is most highly averse to Home Temp Changes of 5°F or more to generate savings. Often concerned with Method of Control. 19 Consumer Enablement Smart Grid to Smart Home … Smart Home Fiber, Sonet Smart Home Two way communication Smart Meter Price schedule Demand response signal Utility specific commands Utility Operating Center 21 What is a Smart Home? Responsible Energy Use Energy-efficient lighting & appliances Solar PV and water heating Smart thermostats Energy Optimizer Responsible Power Use Participation in utility DSM programs Home energy management Smart lighting & appliances 22 The challenge ….. Demand suppression to shift/shave peak Energy rebound of ~ 80% of suppressed demand* *Source: California Study 23 Shift use to off-peak hours with minimal impact Refrigerator Delay defrost Modification of run time during peak Reduced features during peak Energy saver mode Washer/Dryer Delayed wash and dry Reduced cycle time Manage water usage- cold wash Energy saver mode Range and Microwave Reduced energy cooking Use of small cavity Cooking efficiency Electronic cook top Home Energy Manager (HEM) Complete Energy usage tracking Water usage tracking Configurable settings Smart Thermostat Fully programmable $KWh Usage Instantaneous KWh Instantaneous $Pricing Dish Washer Delayed wash Reduced cycle time Manage water usage Energy saver mode 24 Controlling energy and power use Energy – Key Concepts Don’t heat and cool unnecessarily Power – Key Concepts Leverage future knowledge – (TOU structures, weather forecasts…) Thermostat Electricity Rate Pre-cool Plan Leverage solar energy Leverage grid-friendly loads California load profile, and impact of 30% PV penetration 25 The Future Ahead Leveraging emerging technologies Smart PV Smart Home enabled Coincide with peak Small Wind Smart Home enabled Residential/Small commercial Smart HEV Smart Grid/Home enabled Schedule charging 27 Many states driving solar & renewables requirements Recent legislation Policy • 30% ITC with utility eligibility • Option to take Treasury grant Proposed legislation • Florida RPS… 20% by 2025 • Federal RES… 25% by 2021 Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) States with RPS Solar Carveouts (11 + DC) States with RPS DG Carveouts (4) Mandatory RPS (28 + DC) Voluntary RPS (5) Considering RPS (2) Fed & State Government advocating Green Energy 28 Residents will realize future savings Breakeven Cash Flow Analysis using Home Financing Calculations Breakeven Retail Rate (cents/kWh)* 8 16.6⍧ $/W * 1000 *4kWp – Federal & State tax ITC Annual payment ($) Monthly payment (assuming interest is compounded monthly) * 12 + O&M 4kWp * 8760 hours * capacity factor Breakeven (⍧ /kWh) Annual payment / system output * 100 18.8⍧ 7 Net capital cost ($) System output (kWh) $/W (installed) 6 14.3⍧ 5 12.1⍧ 4 9.8⍧ * Resident achieves cash savings when retail electricity rate exceeds $/kWh value for 4kW system Assumptions • Location: Atlanta • System size: 4 kWp • Capacity factor: 15% • Debt terms: 25 years • Cost of debt: 7% • • • • O&M (annual): $40 # hours/year: 8760 Federal ITC: 30% State ITC: 35% Residential customers who finance PV in mortgage can get positive cash flow 29 Summary Economic and environmental demands are forcing functions Investment in technology can accelerate their adoption The Smart Grid is dynamic and must be viewed as a system Demand response is the 5th fuel … let’s compensate for it Renewables play an important role in the grid of the future Policy will drive behavior 30 Smart Grid Learning Series … next week Session 1: The Smart Grid and its Benefits Session 2: The Smart Grid… The Consumer View Session 3: The Smart Grid… The Distribution View Session 4: The Smart Grid… The Transmission View Session 5: The Smart Grid… The View from Rural America 31 ...
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