MIT22_081JF10_lec06a

MIT22_081JF10_lec06a - Lecture Systems Analysis Methodologies Dr John C Wright MIT PSFC 28 SEP 2010 Introduction Outline O UTLINE Scoping study

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Lecture: Systems Analysis Methodologies Dr. John C. Wright MIT - PSFC 28 SEP 2010
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Introduction Outline O UTLINE Scoping study Systems analysis - increasing detail Life cycle analysis Simulation models Risk analysis and uncertainty How are all these connected? 2 SE T-4 Systems Analysis
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Introduction Outline I NTRODUCTION Society Environment Economics Many issues for sustainability requiring balance We need to quantify to proceed Deal with complexity and uncertainty This is the goal “Systems Analysis” End result often involves very, very large computer codes How do we make such computer models? 3 SE T-4 Systems Analysis
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Scoping study S COPING STUDY CHARACTERISTICS We’ll see more of this in a fuel costs example next week. Basic guidelines for a scoping study: Highly simplified Mostly linear analysis - add separate costs Very few feedback effects Advantages Relatively simple to understand Good overall picture Identification of weaknesses 4 SE T-4 Systems Analysis
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Systems Analysis S YSTEMS A NALYSIS IS THE NEXT STEP IN EVALUATION Assume a favorable scoping study Next step is a detailed systems analysis All elements are analyzed in much greater detail For example in our nuclear plant scoping study we gave the fuel price in $/kg In a system analysis model these costs are further broken down Fuel costs: Mining costs Conversion costs Enrichment costs Finance costs 5 SE T-4 Systems Analysis
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Systems Analysis M ODULARIZATION OF SYSTEMS ANALYSIS Each of these may be further analyzed one or two levels deeper. Input data will be based on experience and future projections. The analysis will account for uncertainties. All lower level contributions are combined to form one module of the systems code the fuel cost module. 6 SE T-4 Systems Analysis
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Systems Analysis SA INCLUDES NON - LINEAR EFFECTS A critical feature in SA is the inclusion of interdependencies. Systems analysis are not linear. They include feedback effects. For example consider mining costs: Plenty of Reserves no problem, linear relation works. Reserves dwindle other issues arise Fuel costs will rise Will new fuel be found, if so how much? How will this affect the projected cost of fuel? 7 SE T-4 Systems Analysis
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Systems Analysis B EWARE OF COMPLEX CODES . Systems analysis code contains a large number of complex modules Often hard to understand the whole picture, often expert in part of the picture. Should be more reliable than a scoping study thought. Warning: Be very careful using complex systems analysis codes!! 8 SE T-4 Systems Analysis
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Systems Analysis SA IS NOT ONLY ABOUT MONEY Investors are not the only people to carry out systems analysis Investors focus on financial returns Architectural engineers focus on technical credibility, schedule, and cost Environmentalists focus on pollution, waste disposal, greenhouse gasses, etc.
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This note was uploaded on 02/24/2012 for the course MECHANICAL 2.650J taught by Professor Johnc.wright during the Fall '10 term at MIT.

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MIT22_081JF10_lec06a - Lecture Systems Analysis Methodologies Dr John C Wright MIT PSFC 28 SEP 2010 Introduction Outline O UTLINE Scoping study

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